When the economic recovery is in full swing

[ProSense]

Poll question: When the economic recovery is in full swing

The economy is showing signs of improvement even though jobs are slow to return. When the economy show strong signs of recovery (assuming by 2012), who/what will be credited with its improvement?

[MadHound]

You're assuming that this is going to happen in 2012?

:rofl:

Most economists aren't seeing job recovery until after 2012, and a lot are predicting a situation similar to Japan's lost decade.

Meanwhile we will continue to waste money on things like war and tax cuts, while rewarding our populace with spending cuts in programs such as SS, Medicare and other programs that benefit the poor and middle class.

Recovery:rofl:

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. I will be happy to bet you a $100 donation to the charity of your choice,

that the economy will be, in fact, worse in 2 years. Care to take me up on it?

We can measure it via employment, inflation, consumer sentiment, whatever you choose.

[JoePhilly]

2. If we used DOW and GDP, you'd lose now.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. So will YOU take this bet?

We can use the DOW and GDP if you want, although I think both are poor measures of anything except how the richest are doing.

They will BOTH be lower in 2 years.

[mtnsnake]

7. Why do you need to wage a money bet to make your point?

Just curious.

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. I think the recovering economy is a fantasy.

I believe that people are thinking otherwise without having much other than their own "hopes" to back it up, whereas I read about the economy daily.

I feel if people are really confident, they can put their money where their mouth is, for charity.

[mtnsnake]

12. I agree with everything you're saying

and I wouldn't bet against you. :)

[golfguru]

"put your money where your mouth is" is that how it goes?

[JoePhilly]

14. I wish you wanted to make this bet this summer.

Many on DU declared that the DOW dropping to around 9800 then was a sure sign that the 2nd depression was about to start. They were wrong.

At that time, I said that I expected the DOW to recover, and test the prior upper boundary that time, which was about 10.5k. I also said that if it passed that, I'd be taking GAINS because the jump would be too fast.

11.5k is also too fast since the summer ... I've been taking money out or putting it in safer investments.

And yet ... your bet intrigues me ... The DOW from 2000-2007 stayed near 11.5k and so there is no sense in assuming that it will go much higher, except in a bubble (if it does, take gains fast). Personally, at this time, I think 10.5 is a more accurate valuation.

But GDP is another matter. That has nowhere to go but up. The question is what quarter to use as the benchmark. The GDP was negative for 2 years, and his been positive for the last year, not strong, but positive. You expect it to go south again??

I'm happy to take this bet ... but let's set the exact numbers.

I think the DOW will still be above 10.5k, and the GDP will be above 3%.

[Go2Peace]

20. The DOW is up primarily because companies are sitting on massive Cash. That is *not* as positive as

you are suggesting. At this point the DOW is pretty much tied to cash reserves and the fact that there is lots of unfilled demand in emerging economies even with the world economy slowed. It has LITTLE to do with the health of OUR economy.

[ProSense]

6. "We can measure it via employment, inflation, consumer sentiment, whatever you choose." OK

Sentiment and Trade Data Signal Firmer Recovery

Still, the poll is about 2012.

[Pale Blue Dot]

9. So you're taking the bet?

I can bookmark this?

[ProSense]

13. No, let

your confidence that I'm wrong be enough.

[Go2Peace]

21. whether " the Federal Reserve needs to keep stimulating the economy through asset purchases"

Another "bubble economy", which is what is happening right now. The stimilus was not enough (Credit to Obama who wanted more) and so now we are growing out through good old bubble economy by printing money again. Only problem is, it no longer works well and we get much shorter expansion and then a deep contraction. I suspect Obama understands this, but to control it will likely lead is to "super austerity".

[gateley]

4. Bwah! Reaganomics!

:rofl:

I voted Obama because isn't the incumbent usually credited or blamed for the whole shebang?

[WorseBeforeBetter]

5. "North Carolina’s unemployment rate increased slightly to 9.7 percent in November."

https://www.ncesc.com/default.aspx

Obama barely won NC in 2008 and can kiss it goodbye in 2012 if things don't improve on the job front.

[Go2Peace]

10. I voted Reaganomics, because too much pandering to tax cuts will

confuse the public. I am not sure how good a "chess player" Obama really is. He will likely win re-election, but by making a Republican talking point a key Job strategy he gave a lot of the "win" to them; even if it might not be true.

[ProSense]

16. Interesting

"He will likely win re-election, but by making a Republican talking point a key Job strategy he gave a lot of the "win" to them; even if it might not be true."

So you voted Reaganomics, but say it'll be a "win" for them "even if it might not be true"?

So what will be responsible for the recovery?

[Go2Peace]

19. You asked.

"who/what will be credited with its improvement", not who *should* be credited. If you meant that you should change the wording.

As for who I believe "should" get credit *if* we have a decent recovery in 2012? Most of that credit should go to the Fed, the Fed's representatives (in the administration), and the worldwide monetary equivilents. While Obama was right in pushing and gaining a moderate stimilus package, it was not near enough. So in the end what is really holding together and pushing the economy forward is the massive printing of money and buying of bonds that the Fed is in the second stage of, and the influence we have on the world bank that is keeping other countries in line and not dumping US assets in this critical period.

And that strategy has a huge downside if it does not succeed, or if the world gets weary or less afraid of dropping the dollar and letting us slide. The Feds and Fed aligned equivilents in the world are pumping hard to keep us floating.

[ProSense]

22. Another interesting point, especially since

some on the right are trying to sabotage the Fed and others are trying to abolish it.

[craigmatic]

11. It'll be because of the president but the repigs will claim credit just because they'll be in power.

[CTyankee]

42. Repigs will claim it regardless...remember how they took credit for the boom in the Clinton

years? They just re-write history, that's all. Then when the recession came during the Bush years they called it the Clinton recession.

Heads I win, tails you lose...

[Ozymanithrax]

15. (1) Republicans will claim their forcing the extension of taxes for the rich...

saved the economy. 32% of the Electorate
(2) Democrats will claim Obama saved the economy. 32%
(3) Progressives will claim that it is a lie. 14%
(4) Libertarians will claim that Capitalism saved the economy. 14%
(5) The rest will ask, what economy? 8%

[Kennah]

17. I don't expect recovery until AFTER 2012

If Obama wins re-election, then I predict the Dems retake the House and widen their margin of control over the Senate. If they amend the filibuster, or force the Repugs to stand on the fucking floor and speak rather than engage in a Filibuster Parlay, then the economy starts showing strong signs of recovery.

[11 Bravo]

18. Who WILL or who SHOULD receive the credit?

Call me silly, but I just don't trust that damned librul media not to spin this in favor of the Repugs.

[mtnsnake]

23. The results of this poll are going to be pretty much the same

when the country goes completely down the drain because of the foolish tax deal.

[hulka38]

24. Absurd premise gets my vote

[ProSense]

26. Sure,

there are those predicting that the empire is about to collapse. This poll runs counter to that premise.

[hulka38]

27. You construct it as if a recovery is an inevitability.

[ProSense]

28. "assuming"

That's not definitive.

[hulka38]

29. "assuming by 2012" is a when, not an if

and "strong signs" is really subjective. I think the purpose of your poll is to suggest to everyone that the economy will, no doubt about it, recover very soon thanks to what Obama has done. Isn't that true?

[ProSense]

30. No,

it implies that it could happen after.

"I think the purpose of your poll is to suggest to everyone that the economy will, no doubt about it, recover very soon thanks to what Obama has done. Isn't that true?"

More conspiracy. I don't need to do a poll to state that the economy will improve by 2012. I wholeheartedly believe it will.

The poll is asking who will be credited. Take it for what it is.

[hulka38]

31. Do you wholeheartedly believe

that Obama should be credited?

[ProSense]

32. Yes,

he's blamed for the slowness or lack of recovery so he gets credit for any recovery that occurs by 2012.

He got credit for rescuing the economy from the sliding into a depression.

Who would you credit?

[hulka38]

35. So you are

implying to everyone that the economy will, no doubt about it, recover very soon thanks to what Obama has done. Sorry if that was difficult.

I give him credit for keeping us from going over the brink. I think fundamentally our economy is in a shambles and that we've put very little distance in between ourselves and the brink in the last two years. We're closer to the edge than people realize and that the economy will not recover within the next two years. Recovery from my perspective must include a major drop in real unemployment and improved conditions for the middle class, dismantling the ticking time bomb that is unregulated derivatives and other financial shenanigans on Wall Street....I don't see any reason to believe that these things will improve due to actions by the WH. The best thing we can hope for in the near term is some stability imo.

[ProSense]

36. That's fine

"We're closer to the edge than people realize and that the economy will not recover within the next two years. "

That's your opinion.

[hulka38]

37. It is.

You asked me for it. And if we do get a real recovery (which we won't), Obama moves into FDR status and I will incinerate everything I thought I knew about the way the World works and gleefully start anew.

[bigwillq]

33. Well, this DU poll says Obama

so it must be Obama. DU never lies.

[TheKentuckian]

25. The great and mighty Invisible Hand, of course.

[KeyserSoze87]

34. The economy will recover by 2012

and Obama will beat the shit out of the Repugs and Teatards.

[mtnsnake]

38. and the sun will rise in the west and set in the east

[KeyserSoze87]

41. God, everyone on this site so pessimistic.

I think I'm the only person in the world who thinks things will get better between now and 2012.

[CTyankee]

43. There is just SO MUCH that is inherently going wrong in this country, tho!

In order to compete on a global scale, we need to have universalhealth care, which we stubbornly, and against all reason, refuse to consider. We are NOT sufficiently investing in infrastructure, when this is working in every thriving country on the planet at this time.

We have made stupid, even insane, choices in how to invest our money again and again and again. We are a big country with a lot of natural resources and we are just frittering them away on STUPIDITY.

We have to look at facts. And they are not in our favor now...

[KeyserSoze87]

44. I definitely agree with you that we need universal healthcare.

This year's healthcare bill was a step in the right direction, but it's definitely not good enough. It is also important that we invest in infrastructure, considering how many states in this country have bridges in danger of collapse.

[martymar64]

39. I see no possibility for a recovery. Here's why.

The tax giveaway is simply maintaining the status quo vis-a-vis tax rates. In fact the deal screws the working poor with a tax increase, as well as undermines Social Security and gives the rich a wet dream drop in the Estate Tax.

We received in return a small UI extension for a small portion of the unemployed. The 99er's can go starve to death under an overpass somewhere, as far as both Parties are concerned.

We are involved in more than two wars that show no real sign of us actually completely leaving someday. These wars and the bloated defense budget are another giveaway to the wealthy oligarchs that now dictate who occupies public office and what policies get enacted in this country.

But back to this "recovery". By maintaining the tax rate status quo, the oligarchs have no more incentive to create jobs than they did in the past 10 years. Demand is down because nobody has any money anymore. The Oligarchs have it all. They will simply continue to hoard the money or buy yachts and jets and villas instead.
Now they are jacking up food and fuel prices as well as the cost of health insurance and healthcare in general, further draining the pockets of Americans, both working and unemployed.

I'm sorry, but I don't see how it's going to improve in 2 years or even 20 years based on the current situation we find ourselves.

[jtuck004]

40. Other, because it will be at least 15 years before we can put 20 million

people back to work. We are still adding to the unemployed, and giving the very, very wealthy $114 billion as a Christmas gift (on top of the hundreds of billions and removal of regulation we have gifted their investment banks over the past few decades) isn't going to help anything, if our experience with the same policies for the past 10 years are any guide.

Unless we can put 20 million people (of the 30+ million that are unemployed or underemployed) to work in low wage jobs really fast, (which won't improve the financials of the majority of states that are insolvent) it will very likely be at least 2030 before we see anything like a recovery, and maybe not then. And he will be just a note in the history books by then. What will be left of the policies, which are more important, is just opinion.

[Milo_Bloom]

45. Pipe dream

The economy is not showing any REAL signs of recovery.