Do people turn Repuke if they move to a Repuke area?

[pstokely]

The new census data assumes that it will be good for the Repukes. Do people who vote Blue in the Rest Belt turn Repuke if they move to the Bible Belt or do they just vote how their neighbors vote?

[liberal N proud]

1. The M$M sure wants to make it that way

The statistics would have to have enough people moving from strong blue states to red states in numbers that would tip the already red-neck balance.

What is happening is the people from the industrial north are moving south and dispersing in the red-neck areas and their votes don't offset the red-necks.

[valerief]

2. I'm sure the Red State Diebold machines make sure they do. nt

[charlyvi]

3. I didn't.

South side Chicagoan now living in Alabama. Every time I vote, it's futile. But I'll die trying.

[mtnsnake]

4. I hereby vote for your thread title as the best thread title of the month

:thumbsup:

[FBaggins]

5. You assume that people who move from NY to GA must be Democrats

It could just as easily be people who are moving because they think there are more people like them where they're going.

Which would mean that the red state gets redder and the blue state gets bluer.

But yes, some people are influenced by the people who live around them. Rather than think through the issues for themselves, they assume that if 80% of the people they work with think one way, it must be correct.

Lastly, it's a "good thing" for republicans because TX (as an example) casts all of their electoral votes for one candidate whether (s)he wins by 10% or 2%.

[Orangepeel]

6. If not, republicans will only win Utah by 25 points instead of 28

and Texas by 10 instead of 11.

There are two big reasons why the Census distribution is bad for Democrats:

1) the census figures are 10 years old but the election results in 2012 will only be 2 to 4 years old (depending on which election we are talking about). Even assuming the vast majority of people who move from blue states to red states are liberal (a big assumption), the results won't change much from the last election but the number of congressional seats/electoral votes will.

2) Electoral votes are winner take all in almost all states. So the margin might shrink but the results will still benefit republicans.

[slackmaster]

7. Generally no

Thoughtful people don't change their basic values just because they are surrounded by people with different ones.

[RichGirl]

8. NO

In my case, just the opposite.

I moved from a northern blue state to a southern red state. Up north I only voted in an election...now I work, work, work.

Obviously, there are republicans up north...but they seemed more normal. Southern republicans are...crazy! They scare you into doing anything and everything you can to keep them out of politics.

[whistler162]

9. Would you care to translate this into English!

[moondust]

10. Sometimes.

I think it depends on one's social situation, job, etc., and how much cultural pressure there is to "conform," "fit in," "go with the flow," etc.--OR ELSE BE LEFT OUT, OSTRACIZED, MARGINALIZED. I think the cultural programming in someplace like Oklahoma would be oppressive although these days the Internet could be a lifeline to sanity--in private.

A relative moved to a town in Kansas and a while later began to exhibit signs of Christian fundamentalism. I had always known her to be pretty liberal and not really religious before she moved there. Some of it may rub off.

[LiberalFighter]

11. I moved to a red state in 86 and a district that was considered hard Republican.

I'm still a Democrat. Several multiple degrees to the left of Senator Bayh.

[Skittles]

12. fuck no

I've been in Texas for decades and have never turned repuke

[Bobbieo]

13. NO!!!!

[mtnsnake]

14. Yikes!

I could hear you all the way out in my garage!

[JoePhilly]

15. Nope. I'm from PA, and working to turn NC blue.

[Juche]

16. I read an article about this a few years ago. the conclusion was no

It was about how the south was not going to be reliably deep red anymore. The argument (this was around 2008, before the election occured) was that several factors were making the south more purple and less red.

1. More minority participation (latinos and blacks) as a % of the electorate and for their turnout
2. Young white kids who do not share their parents political leanings
3. Immigration of people from outside the south who take their northern attitudes with them when they move


They mentioned how the fastest growing counties in the US were largely in the south, then said that people still had the same political views of the places they left in the north and west (a lot of the expats were from the northeast, midwest and west coast) even when they moved there.

So my view is no. Think of it as cultural gentrification. But I don't know how much it matters. I am a native in my district, it has one of the most conservative house members in the US who wins by 20-30 points each election. So it doesn't matter how liberal I am.

If anything, a moderate liberal exposed to the Glenn Beck nutjobs will probably turn them into a more left leaning liberal. That tends to happen. When you are a moderate conservative or democrat, and are exposed to radicals of the other side it tends to radicalize you too. A moderate democrat who moves to a deep red state and is exposed to all the people there who openly talk about how they hope Obama gets assassinated since he is the anti-christ or who talk about how the economy was intentionally crashed so we could have a takeover by marxist atheists is probably going to be less sympathetic to conservatism, not more since that is the impression of what conservatives stand for.

You also saw that effect with Palin. Obama raised $150 million the month after Palin was picked as VP. Bill Maher said that was the first time he donated to Obama. So exposure to radicals (of the opposite end of the spectrum) may make those democrats more involved in politics.

It could be a good thing from that perspective. Moderate, apathetic dems may become more progressive and involved when they see how radical some of the conservatives in these deep red areas are.

[tnvoter]

17. Nope. Went from battleground to Red... Still Blue in TN eom

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. As a statistician, it's driving me crazy because I want to know what the districts that

are being gained look like. We won't know until the state legislatures start redistricting and gerrymandering districts. Sure there will be Republican gains in Republican strongholds. That's how we got Newt Gingrich and not Ben Jones. But is the shift in migration patterns that huge in terms of magnitude and scale that Republicans have an advantage outright? Not necessarily. Democrats won in overwhelmingly Republican strongholds in 2006 and 2008. There are districts as well that swing back and forth. I predict that it won't impact Obama's reelection chances much. He'll win decisively unless there's a major event that impacts the economy or an international conflict on a grand scale.

I know that the Corporate Media wants Democrats to crouch in the corner and give up, but they win if we do.

We need to get out there and FIGHT!!

[Pisces]

19. Fuck no, I moved to a red area, and voted blue in a loud fashion!!

[Honeycombe8]

20. I didn't. But what happens is....the Blue Vote means nothing.

Since an AREA's votes count as one big vote for a candidate, the minority's votes don't matter. So I vote, and I vote, but in general elections, my vote disappears because the red vote carries. (I happen to live in a semi-blue precinct within a dark red state, so sometimes my vote counts, but sometimes it doesn't.)

But no, a person doesn't change to the opposing side. If anything, their convictions get stronger, I think.