Comments on November Personal Income and Outlays Report

[ProSense]

Comments on November Personal Income and Outlays Report

by CalculatedRisk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November this morning.

Personal income increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $43.3 billion, or 0.4 percent.

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Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in October.

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The two-month method of estimating real PCE growth for Q4 (a fairly accurate method), suggests real PCE growth of 4.3% in Q4! So this looks like a pretty strong quarter for growth in personal consumption. The last time real PCE grew at more than 4% was in 2006.

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This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak. This has been slow to recover - and is still 4.5% below the previous peak - but personal income less transfer payments is growing again.

Some of the increase in spending came from a decline in the personal saving rate, but overall this was a positive report and suggests solid GDP growth in Q4 (3% or higher).

[Clio the Leo]

1. good nt