President Obama back up to 50% in today's Gallup tracking poll/What this number means historically

[aaaaaa5a]

Obama is back at 50% in today's Gallup tracking poll. He was at 50% (or better) last week. His numbers have fluctuated between 46 and 50% for most of the last 2 weeks.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


In 1980 Jimmie Carter had Gallup approval rating of 37% prior to election day. On election day he had 41% of the vote. (Reagan had 51% of the vote. Third party candidate John Anderson had 7%)


In 1984 Ronald Reagan had a Gallup approval rating of 58% prior to election day. On election day he had 59% of the vote. (Mondale had 41% of the vote)


In 1992 George Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 34% prior to election day. On election day he had 37% of the vote. (Clinton had 42% of the vote, Perot had 19%)


In 1996 Bill Clinton had a Gallup approval rating of 54% prior to election day. On election day he had 49% of the vote. (Dole had 43% of the vote, Perot had 9%)


In 2004 George Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 48% prior to election day. On election day had 51% of the vote. (Kerry had 49%)


Today Obama is at 50%. He has fluctuated between 46-50% for the last 2 weeks.



President/Gallup tracking % before election/Vote % on election day/+-

1980-Carter/37/41/+4

1984-Reagan/58/59/+1

1992-Bush/34/37/+3

1996-Clinton 54/49/-5

2004-Bush 48/51/+3



Obama 50/???


We still have a long way to go. But over the last 30 years, all incumbent Presidents with an approval rating in the high 40s or better have been reelected. (Low to mid 30s prior to election day is death) Most incumbent Presidents actually fair 1-3 points better than their tracking average. Only Bill Clinton did far worse than his pre-election Gallup tracking number, measuring 5 points lower in terms of his vote % total on election day.

If the election were held today, Obama would win.


1988, 2000 and 2008 are not listed because there were no incumbent Presidents seeking office.



Info sources:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

[onehandle]

1. I believe he can win. But will he have coattails that make a difference? nt

[bluestateguy]

2. I think Obama's vote % in 2012 will track a couple of percent higher than his job approval rating

For two reasons, one he is likable personally and two, the Republican nominee will be unacceptable to a small number of people who disapprove of Obama's job performance.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. History says we can expect up to a 3 point bump from his tracking poll.

I think he could jump even higher because Obama will count heavily on hispanics. They are a fast growing minority group that is very likely to be under-counted in tracking polls. Based on how Obama has been tracking, a 3 to 5 point bump on election day would make him unbeatable. Perhaps this is why no "serious" GOP candidates have entered the race. And of the buffoons we have on the GOP side now, none have officially declared they are running for the Presidency.


They must be looking at this data too.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. Well, we (might) know if Newt's going to take a shot at it in a few days

If he does decide he's in the running, well...............................................:rofl:

[aaaaaa5a]

Not many viable candidates here

Palin
Gingrich
Barbar
Paul (?)
Huckabee
Romney

Only Romney is viable. But he is the author of the Obama Health Care plan. This will make it difficult for him in the GOP primaries. And he will look foolish bringing it up in any debates with the President.



Oh yeah…. I almost forgot, wasn't Romney pro choice before he broke for the hard right? I wonder if there is any video of that out there?


Magic underwear anyone?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Romney seems to be the only one who's "mainstream" enough to have a crack at it

However, he is wide open to charges of "flip-floppery" and he may be too "moderate" to win over the teabaggers. I don't have a link offhand but I think that I heard somewhere that when Romney tried to run against Ted Kennedy one year (maybe 2006?), he claimed that he would be a better friend to gays and lesbians than Ted Kennedy was/would be. I'm pretty sure that any GOPer running against him for the nomination will probably have a video package of that on standby. If he retreats on those statements, then well, he's a flip-flopper and as the Republicans *proved* with John Kerry, people don't like flip-floppers. I could still be wrong of course but I don't see any real path to victory for the GOP in 2012 and their most glaring problem is the lack of good solid nominees (so far). IMHO 2012 will be like 1996 or 2004 NOT 1980 (unless the GOP manages to reanimate Reagan's rotting corpse that is. Then all bets are off :eyes:).

[aaaaaa5a]

15. The issue everyone forgets about 1980...

is that Reagan only had 51% of the vote. 49% of the public voted against Reagan on election day.

Jimmie Carter had 3 problems Obama is very unlikely to face.


1) Jimmie Carter had a primary challenger. Much like Bush in 1992, this really kills your re-election chances. After the Presidential election in 1980, many in the Carter camp blamed Ted Kennedy for the loss.

2) Jimmie Carter has the terrible and embarrassing situation with Iran. And it was breaking right around election day. Right now its hard to see anything close to that effecting Obama near election time.

3) Jimmie Carter had a 3rd party candidate that took a good share of his vote. John Anderson challenged Carter to the left. Carter and Anderson split their votes. Heck in 1980, Reagan even held a Presidential debate with he and Anderson without Carter! Obama is unlikely to have a 3rd party challenger on the left. The left learned their lesson in 2000 with Nader that led to 8 years of Bush rue. I fact if Romney were nominated, you are actually more likely to see a third party challenge to the right.


People forget that Carter/Reagan was a close race. It broke in Reagan's favor about 2 weeks prior to election day.


With all of those factors in place, 2012 looks a lot like 1996 and 2004. This was why Hillary stayed away from the 2004 race, opting instead for the 2008 Presidential run. Likewise today, most of the strong GOP contenders will stay away from 2012 and opt for 2016 for the same reasons. The weak GOP field will help Obama too.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

25. Thanks for the background

and I totally agree with you on all of those points except that I don't what "strong contenders" the GOP has left or may be grooming for a future one. Unless the GOP moderates a bit back to pre-Tea Party level or pre-George W. Bush level (it's amazing how the pendulum has swung so far to the left for the Republicans that George W. Bush actually seems somewhat moderate now! :crazy:), their ability to extend their reach to capture more voters outside their "base" is going to get worse and worse. The one thing that they have in their favor is bucketfuls of campaign cash from the Koch Brothers, et. al and a committed corp of voters. If we ever managed to get more people mobilized in between and during election cycles, it would be very hard for Republicans to be elected anywhere outside of the South and one or two traditionally solid "red" states (i.e. Wyoming, Utah) IMHO. The apathy of the average American, as well as our failure to get people supportive of the progressive agenda mobilized and keep them mobilized is one of our weaknesses as a party IMHO. Maybe what is going on in Wisconsin, Indiana, etc. will be a catalyst for galvanizing people in advance of 2012. :shrug:

[aaaaaa5a]

12. Not many viable candidates here

Palin
Gingrich
Barbar
Paul (?)
Huckabee
Romney

Only Romney is viable. But he is the author of the Obama Health Care plan. This will make it difficult for him in the GOP primaries. And he will look foolish bringing it up in any debates with the President.



Oh yeah…. I almost forgot, wasn't Romney pro choice before he broke for the hard right? I wonder if there is any video of that out there?


Magic underwear anyone?

[tallahasseedem]

4. He has my 2012 vote...

locked up already.

[NorthCarolina]

5. Had he been the change agent he campaigned on

he wouldn't be struggling so hard just to get to 50% favorability rating.

[Kdillard]

6. Good news. Hopefully it will continue to rise.

[Safetykitten]

7. 2011-4 buck gas. 2012-5 buck gas. He's not getting re-elected.

2012 the economy will be a shambles. Unemployement high, housing still a mess with commercial.

Gas prices and the ripple effect of it will get us a republican.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. I think something about 9 on the Richter scale will rock the GOP in the next year

and the tower will come tumbling down for the right

[aaaaaa5a]

10. its amazing that as bad as the economy has been...

his approval rating has never dropped below 41%! Obama has an amazingly "high" basement floor. Reagan, Bush and Clinton all governed a significant portion of their first term with approval ratings in the 30s.

[JVS]

28. A lot of that is because the public is aware that the economy was ruined under Bush's watch.

Yet over time, a slow recovery becomes Obama's responsibility.

[ClarkUSA]

13. Prove your claims. Does your crystal ball do lottery numbers, too?

:sarcasm:

[aaaaaa5a]

16. In 2008 the only states I missed was Indiana! LOL!

[ClarkUSA]

17. Are you Nate Silver? Because he's the only other person with such a record.

PM me with the answer. I won't tell. ;)

Nice OP, by the way. Facts, facts, and a lucid summary sans spin.

Keep it up, Nate!

[aaaaaa5a]

19. No, no, no, no…… I'm no Nate Silver, NOT EVEN CLOSE!

I'm just a political nerd who likes numbers has no life, and for better or worse… HAS A LOT OF TIME ON MY HANDS.

[jenmito]

18. ClarkUSA's post was to Safetykitten, n/t

[dionysus]

20. your wishing doesn't make it so...

[AtomicKitten]

9. I believe he'll win in 2012.

He's still the smartest motherfokker in the room.

[Divine Discontent]

21. the key segment of voters who voted for him & then didn't vote last year will decide if he has

any coattails on the rest of the elections. generally speaking.

we need to take back the House... badly.

[aaaaaa5a]

22. Obama is at 49% today 2/27/11 NT

[obamafourmore]

23. He brought many Americans back safely from Libya. The public saw it

[walldude]

24. Of course he would win...

it's not like we have a choice in the matter. Him or a Republican. Woo Hoo.

My original vote for Obama was the first time I actually voted for a candidate not against his opponent. Next vote is back to the lesser of 2 evils. Disappointing.

[JVS]

27. If he doesn't improve the economy greatly, he's toast.

2012 is going to have corporate money out the ass thanks to the Citizens United case.
The teabaggers, although an astroturf group, do seem to GOTV (seem MA, WI, 2010)
Obama's ability to stir up the kind of public support he did in 2008 will not be as great.
The party apparatus since Obama put Kaine in Dean's old job has seemingly atrophied, as seen in 2010.
His best hope is that the republican candidate will be so revolting that people won't vote for him, and 2010 showed us the pissed off desperate people don't exactly smell things carefully.
So if the economy is better, the republicans will likely have a lot of people ready to vote him out.
If the economy improves, the pissed off republican horde loses a lot of steam.

[jasperfondoon]

26. Obama Polling Numbers

Early 2011 approval numbers are not a good predictor if being
elected next year.  I'm more worried about the economy and
what the unemployment rate is next August and September.  If
unemployment is 9% or better, I simply don't see how Obama
gets re-elected.