Harry Reid Calls House Republicans’ Bluff

[flamingdem]

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/07/25/277811/harry-reid-calls-house-republicans-bluff/

Something you often see in negotiations is a mismatch between one side’s stated sticking points and its real sticking points. In the debate over the debt ceiling, for example, Republicans have sought to portray themselves as having two bottom lines. One is that any increase in the debt ceiling must be met dollar-for-dollar with spending cuts. The other is that no revenue increases can be part of the deal. What Harry Reid did yesterday was essentially call the GOP’s bluff by outlining a plan that raises the debt ceiling by $2.7 trillion and includes $2.7 trillion in spending cuts, a healthy share of which comes from winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Republicans are rejecting this even though it nominally meets their demands. Why? Because it doesn’t achieve either of their two real objectives. In particular, the plan doesn’t cut Medicare, which means that Democratic party candidates for office in November 2012 and 2014 can accurately remind voters of the content of the Republican budget plan. In case you forgot, this plans repeals Medicare. Having repealed Medicare, it then gives seniors vouchers to purchase more expensive private health insurance. And having replaced Medicare with a voucher system, it then ensures that the vouchers will grow steadily stingier over time. It was only after voting for this plan that Republicans seem to have realized that repealing Medicare is unpopular. Since that time, they’ve been trying to entrap Democrats into reaching some kind of Medicare détente with them, which would immunize them from criticism. Reid’s plan doesn’t do that.

Second, while Reid’s plan doesn’t raise taxes, it also doesn’t take tax increases off the table. Currently, the Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2012. If Reid’s all-cuts plan passes, that still leaves the door open to significant revenue increases. Now that doesn’t mean this is brilliant 11-dimensional chess. The Reid Plan is consistent with substantial revenues coming online in 2012, but that will only happen if President Obama and Senate Democrats stand firm and play hardball on the tax issue. Back in December 2010, they utterly failed to do so.
SNIP..................

[kstewart33]

1. Good points all, so why is the deal so painful to many of us? nt

[msongs]

2. did you read this part? - "Back in December 2010, they utterly failed to do so" nt

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Obama

They are now running back to Obama because they realize the deal he was offering is light years better for them than anything they'd get from any other Democrat on the planet. They look so bush league and amateurish right now.

[Gunny1]

4. Sorry but I'm just not going to be too gleeful about Reid caving

It's like we're spared Hitler only to inherit Attila the Hun.

[DrToast]

5. I've been opposed to any plan that doesn't include revenues, but I think Reid's plan is okay

As the article says, revenue increases are already on the books.

I think it will be easier to hold the line after 2012, too, because I don't think the Dems in Congress will go along with another extension even if Obama wants one.

[jtrockville]

6. My only objection, is: it looks like Dems handed GOP a victory

To those who aren't so discerning (don't bother looking in to the details), the headlines will read: "Debt ceiling agreement has budget cuts but no revenue increases", which is exactly what the GOP demanded.

[DrToast]

7. Yeah, but it looks like the GOP doesn't even want this deal

Which means they know it's bad for them in the long run, even if it looks like a win for them in the short run.

[jtrockville]

8. We're just really lucky they haven't called our bluff.

Though the bluffs DO expose their unwillingness to compromise.

[Sheepshank]

10. I just got through reading this very discussion at Freeperville

They distrust Reid as much as we/I distrust McConell. Any plan that is proposed by Reid and accepted by the GOP is seen as a conniving, underhanded secretive plan that ensure GOP a loser...and is nothing but a empty case of smoke and mirrors.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2753512/posts

[jtrockville]

16. I didn't go to Freeperville, but based on your assessment...

I tend to agree: it's nothing but smoke and mirrors. So let's have a "clean bill" already. Enough with the theatrical drama!

[thereismore]

9. I agree with Reid. nt

[sudopod]

11. So that's what they call pulling down your pants and bending over these days.

I never realized that's why they call it poker.

[GumboYaYa]

12. I am 100% in favor of any spending decreases that result from

ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[vaberella]

13. Considering O and Reid worked on this...I'm cool with it. n/t

[Enrique]

15. lol

it's all about the O.

[woolldog]

17. isn't it a shame

it seems like some are more into the personality than the policy.

[woolldog]

14. Isn't it obvious?

Obama including "entitlement reform" in his deal weakened all the democrats' hand.

Repubs are going for the big three because, based on Obama's maneuverings, they think they can get at least revenue + entitlements, whereas I don't believe they thought it was a realistic possibility before. This is expert negotiating and brinksmanship on the part of Boehner and the Republicans.

Of course it makes it easier because they're dealing with wimps on the other side of the table.