Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: Obama's numbers unexpectedly jump upward

[ProSense]

Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: Obama's numbers unexpectedly jump upward

[Pirate Smile]

1. Pres. Obama +11. Congressional GOP -15. Wow.

"After weeks of being mired at or near record lows, Barack Obama's job approvals abruptly—and unexpectedly—bounced six points this week, while his favorability shot up by almost twice that. While there have been plenty of newsworthy events recently (not least Occupy Wall Street), the president himself hasn't been making many headlines lately and there hasn't been much good economic news (unless you take a very optimistic view of the September jobs report, which in any event was released after this poll went into the field). So none of the usual drivers of poll numbers have been in evidence recently.

This means I can tell you what changed in our cross-tabs, but I can't tell you why things changed. In particular, Obama's job approvals with Democrats moved up 13 net points—and his standing with independents jumped even further, 21 points. If I were a very lazy Beltway journalist, I'd look at those numbers, declare that the president was recovering with those oh-so-important swing voters, invent a few reasons as to why this was happening, and call it a day.

That would, of course, be the height of sophistry. Instead, I'll just say that "blip happens." No other pollster has recorded a jump like this, so there's a good chance this poll is simply an outlier, especially given the size of the bump. And if we do start seeing an upward trend over the next few weeks and months, then maybe we can start drawing some tentative conclusions about what this all means. Until some time passes, though, I'm in my usual mode of national poll analysis: wait-and-see."

[TheWraith]

2. We shouldn't be surprised at all. The campaign has resumed.

And instead of being stuck in Washington trying to push the rock up the hill to get something done, he's back out stumping and reminding people of the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Note that at the same time, there's been a very sharp downward swing in numbers for the Congressional Republicans, and a small upward one for Congressional Dems.

[great white snark]

3. Excellent.

I think people are starting to compare and contrast.

[WI_DEM]

4. congressional dems (-23) still do better than congressional gop (-38)

but for the life of me I don't see why Pelosi polls worse than Boehner.

[WI_DEM]

5. 81% of liberals approve of Obama's performance as president...

Liberal 81 11 8
Moderate 55 38 8
Conservative 15 83 3

18 to 29 47 39 14
30 to 45 44 50 6
46 to 65 45 52 3
Older than 65 39 54 6

Northeast 52 39 9
Midwest 42 51 8
South 39 58 3
West 46 50 5

Union household 54 37 9
Non-union household 41 53 5

[Supersedeas]

19. numbers well worth academic consideration

for those with an ideological agenda

that is....if evidence is anything but silliness.

[totodeinhere]

6. Sorry to throw in some negativity here, but the Real Clear Politics average of six polls has him at

42.5 approval 51.0 disapproval. The polls cited range from 9/22 - 10/10. That has his approval ratings near historic lows. I am not discounting the poll that you cited, but it seems that a lot of people at DU like to push polls that have results that they like while downplaying negative polls. I'm just trying to add some balance to the discussion.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[livetohike]

9. So your purpose in "sorry to throw in some negativity here" is

what exactly? Interjecting something you want to see?

[totodeinhere]

11. Yes, what's wrong with that? I want to see what all of the polls say. I appreciated reading the OP's

poll but I am interested in all of the other polls as well.

[WI_DEM]

10. All those negative polls have been on DU as well--you don't think that

those who are so ardent at opposing Obama here have been ignoring them? Also this poll isn't really all that different from those other polls on Real Politics. What? 42-51 compared to 44-50 it's all within the same margin of error (and actually 42.5 could be rounded off to 43).

[totodeinhere]

12. To quote from the article that the OP linked to:

No other pollster has recorded a jump like this, so there's a good chance this poll is simply an outlier, especially given the size of the bump.

But in this thread up to the point where I posted there is no acknowledgment that the OP's poll might be an outlier.

[Denzil_DC]

14. RealClearPolitics?

"I am not discounting the poll that you cited, but it seems that a lot of people at DU like to push polls that have results that they like while downplaying negative polls."

Funny thing is, some folks I know used to trust the RCP roundup of polls during the '08 election, till I pointed them toward Nate Silver.

RCP had a nasty habit of changing which polls it included in its average from day to day, to give a result more in keeping with its agenda (which wasn't pro-Dem). I haven't been following that site closely enough to know whether it's still doing that or it's cleaned up its act, but it's something I'd bear in mind.

[Davis_X_Machina]

7. An increase in the number of wrong people...

..and looking at the internals, the increase in the number of wrong independents is even greater than the increase in the number of wrong Democrats.

I don't have the rest of the subgroups, but I would imagine considerable continued support among wrong African Americans, and wrong memebers of wrong union households as well.

How can so many people be wrong? Can't they see what a disaster Obama is?

[OHdem10]

8. I will bet it is the jobs plan.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. Not all DU'ers are gonna be happy about this.

:(

[CakeGrrl]

15. Tough for them. I for one am quite glad to see it.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. As am I.

:hi:

[Kolesar]

17. President's Approval Rating Soars After Punching Wall Street Banker in Face

http://www.theonion.com/video/presidents-approval-rating-soars-after-punching-wa,26349/

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

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