The Cook Report: It Will Be Romney or Perry

[flpoljunkie]

The Cook Report: Bird in the Hand
GOP primary voters could choose the next president, if only they can make their peace with the front-runner.

Cain seems to be functioning as a parking place for conservatives who have grown disillusioned or who harbor reservations about the previous flavors of the month. Until he demonstrates strength in some of these other dimensions (fundraising, campaign organization), it’s a good bet that Cain is little more than a place for conservatives to window shop while they decide what to do. If Gertrude Stein were alive, she might observe that with the Cain campaign, “there is no there there.”

In reality, there is an extraordinarily high probability that the Republican nominee will be either former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Two-thirds of Republican voters are now very right of center. Call them tea party or social conservatives or whatever you want, but they want a Republican nominee who is a no-holds-barred, unadulterated conservative. They want a Perry or a Bachmann or someone like that, but they aren’t sure they specifically want Perry, and they seem to have concluded that they don’t want Bachmann. In any case, that type of candidate does not include someone from the establishment Republican Party like Romney. Maybe it’s Romney’s Massachusetts health care plan, maybe it’s his (to use Edward Kennedy’s phrase) “multiple-choice” positions on abortion or other cultural issues, or maybe it’s his Mormon faith, but these conservative Republicans have a lot of reservations about Romney.

Then there is Perry. In Tuesday’s debate, the Texas governor was clearly not the winner. Indeed, his performance was underwhelming. But he did survive with no apparent stumbles that could harm his competitiveness as a candidate. With the Republican Party wanting to nominate someone of his ilk, the question is whether Perry can effectively grow and develop as a national candidate—and tone down the rhetorical excesses and missteps—enough to win outside of the Deep South. If he can, he’s the nominee. If he can’t, he might not be.

Romney exudes intelligence and competence, and every debate makes him look more presidential and more like someone who would be a very strong favorite to win a general election—if he wins the GOP nomination. Whether he can overcome right-wing doubts will largely hinge on whether Perry makes the turn from being a Texas candidate into being a national one, scratching that ideological itch that conservatives have. If he doesn’t, Republicans may hold their noses and go with the guy that is a very good bet to beat President Obama next November.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-bird-in-the-hand-20111013

[geek tragedy]

1. Captain Obvious strikes again. nt

[flpoljunkie]

2. Still like the Gertrude Stein quote.

;)

[bigdarryl]

3. He only says Perry or Romney because of the MONEY

Perry is a joke he has no brains what so ever but because he's got money (15 million )he's considered a serious candidate