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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 08:42 PM
Original message
A 50,000-Foot View of the Global Crisis
Edited on Fri Jul-08-11 08:42 PM by GliderGuider
To mods: This is my own article, so I'm posting more than 4 paragraphs.

A 50,000-Foot View of the Global Crisis

We are now well into a global crisis that may mark the end of this cycle of human civilization. In this note I present a summary of what’s going on as far as I can tell, as well as a scenario for how things might develop over the next 75 years or so.

The Present:

There are of course many symptoms of the global problem, but these are representative:
  • Climate change due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is probably the most significant existential threat humanity faces today. Climate change is altering weather patterns, causing physical damage though extreme weather events, and is increasingly disrupting rainfall and food production in various regions.
  • Soil fertility is plummeting world-wide.
  • Fresh water extraction from long-term and fossil aquifer storage is increasing to support the intensification of agriculture. Water tables are sinking around the world.
  • We may have already lost the oceans, because of a combination of over-fishing, acidification, temperature changes, and pollution from plastic waste and agricultural runoff. Food fish species exploited by humans are near collapse and the entire food chain is showing signs of disruption (e.g. jellyfish population explosions).
  • Desertification and deforestation are continuing largely unchecked around the world.
  • Species are going extinct at a very rapid rate, from a combination of habitat loss due to human activity, climate change and pervasive pollution.
  • The human food supply is showing signs of peaking due to climate change and increasing input costs.
  • Many genomes of agricultural species of plants and animals have been streamlined to such an extent that the resilience of the stocks is now in question.
  • We hit Peak Oil around 2006. Global crude oil production has been on a plateau since late 2004 (7 years now) despite massive upward excursions in the price.
  • The world economy is in a continuing recession caused by a combination of human factors (excessive complexity and loss of control) and a tightening of resource inputs – especially oil. The symptoms vary from place to place, but the underpinnings are global.
The Future:

The following points constitute a scenario based on my reading, that I believe becomes increasingly probable as the time horizon is pushed out. Take this as a 75 year scenario.
  • Climate change will not be ameliorated by international agreement. This is due to the cooperation problems identified in the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” game, national and corporate self-interest, a lack of urgency due to the hyperbolic discount function mentioned above, and the complete lack of any realistic substitute for fossil fuels.
  • The general replacement of declining oil supplies by biofuels will not succeed due to the low ERoEI of such fuels.
  • The global impact of Peak Oil will be made worse as producing nations retain more of their declining oil output to satisfy domestic demand. This will drain the international oil market of most supplies by 2040 or so.
  • Over the next 25 years the decline in oil exports will trigger repeated rises in world oil prices. Those prices will in turn trigger waves of economic instability, with the prices falling during recessions/depressions and surging again during attempted recoveries.
  • The amount of capital available for new equipment manufacturing and infrastructure maintenance and development will decline in a stair-step fashion during the repeated recessions, as the global debt bubble implodes.
  • Nuclear power will not be developed any further because of public resistance due to the perceived risk. Some exceptions may occur in autocratic, centrally planned economies (esp. Russia and China).
  • While much renewable power will be installed in some places, in global terms renewable power will not save the day. This will be because of the lack of capital, the huge disparity between current renewable generating capacity and power needs, the inability to upgrade or even maintain national electrical grids, and the difficulty in addressing some transportation problems with electricity.
  • Most new electrical generation capacity will be fuelled by natural gas and coal.
  • There will be spreading electrical grid breakdowns as poorly-maintained infrastructure fails.
  • The human food supply will fail to keep pace with population growth, probably starting within the next two to five years. Despite international aid, famines will begin to spread out of sub-Saharan Africa into the rest of that continent and Asia. Pockets of starvation will begin to appear in developed nations over the next decade or two.
  • International tensions will rise over access rights to water, oil and gas. Regional and civil wars will become more common.
  • Populations will panic, and demand strong protective measures from their governments. This will result in an increase in repressive, bellicose authoritarian regimes. Asymmetric warfare will increase.
  • The use of transportation to move food from consuming to producing regions will become increasingly difficult, unreliable and expensive. This will cause a re-localization of food production, but some regions will not have enough land, water or skills – or a suitable climate – to permit the replacement of imported food supplies.
  • Sanitation infrastructure will suffer for the same reason as electrical grids – the progressive lack of capital for maintenance and refurbishment. Sanitation failures will trigger disease outbreaks.
  • Fertility rates and birth rates are likely to plummet world-wide over the next 30 years, due to the same influences seen in Russia from 1987 to 1993 during the break-up of the Soviet Union. These changes will largely be driven by personal choice rather than centralized planning and legislation.
  • Mortality rates will begin to climb somewhat later, due to food supply problems and the regional spread of communicable “breakdown” diseases like cholera, typhoid and dysentery. The spread of diseases will be aided by the breakdown of local and regional sanitation and health care systems.
  • Population growth will slow faster than the UN currently projects. World population may reach a peak of between 7 and 8 billion between 2030 and 2040, and then begin to decline. The speed of the decline is unknowable. The world population will begin to stabilize as it drops below two billion.
  • The world’s political landscape will undergo massive changes. In some cases there will be fragmentation as regional populations secede or are increasingly isolated by traditional geographic barriers (mountains, rivers, lakes, oceans and deserts). In other cases there will be amalgamations as wars of conquest are fought over resource access rights.
I do not believe, based on what I have learned, that new technological developments offer any hope for escaping this scenario. Much of the possibility for technological development hinges on the availability of capital and oil, both of which will be in increasingly short supply in the coming decades.

Some technological developments will cushion the shocks in some places. For instance the OECD may be able to make use of new low-energy or renewable technologies. However, the probability that such changes will penetrate deeply enough into Africa and Asia to prevent catastrophe is, in my estimation, vanishingly small. And in the end, the entropic forces at work may overrun even the most technologically sophisticated regions.

I do not support the use of genetic engineering or biotechnology to address the food supply problem. In my opinion the risks are too great and the probability of success is too low. Nor do I support the further development of nuclear power, for similar reasons.

In any event, what we face is not, at its heart, a technology problem amenable to an engineering solution. What we have is an ecological problem. We are in an overshoot situation relative to the ecological underpinnings that are required to support life, as well as having drawn down most of the accessible resources on which our civilization’s operation now depends. Our numbers and our needs have filled our ecological niche, which we have expanded to include the entire planet.

The good news is that human extinction is extremely unlikely. This is a very large planet, and we are a very resilient species. There is evidence that we rebounded from the Toba bottleneck when our species was reduced to at most a few tens of thousands of individuals. Barring a cosmic accident, humans will be around for a long time. Our current civilization, though, is quite another matter. On that scale we are about out of time, resources and options.

So what do we do about it? It’s not in our nature to simply roll over and give up – our survival instinct is, after all, built into the oldest reptilian part of our brains.

There will be some governments that will come to their senses in time, and have the courage to institute helpful measures. Unfortunately, institutional responses will usually be reactive rather than proactive. The worse the situation becomes before they take action, the more likely it becomes that panic will cloud the decision-makers’ judgement, leading to short-sighted, mistaken and ultimately harmful policies.

Most of the effective preparation for the coming changes will happen where it always does – at the individual level. This is already happening as people break free from the group-think of their cultures, wake up and realize what’s going on.

This awakening is the source motivation that feeds all the small, local independent environmental and social-justice groups that are springing into being like antibodies throughout the infected bloodstream of our global culture. These groups are independently addressing local problems as diverse as water rights, education, local food production, environmental cleanup, social justice issues, home energy production, local currencies, cooperative housing and child care – the list is effectively endless.

As these groups do their work, they also wake up many of those they come in contact with, to one degree or another. There may be over two million such groups in existence today, and there is one or more in every city on the planet. As far as I can tell their number is growing by about 30% per year. They are the true repository of hope in a gloomy landscape.

“Big solutions” are what got us into our current predicament. I reject the notion that more big solutions will get us out. Instead I prefer to count on the boundless courage, compassion, and ingenuity of individuals. People like you.

More at the link
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some guy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. KnR
Nicely concise. If I were able to grab hold of my thoughts about the various aspects of our current predicament, and put them into a nice clean, ordered essay, I would hope it would be something like what you wrote.

:applause:
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northoftheborder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. excellent article. I'm sorry, I don't know your credentials.
Could you link to your background and fields of expertise?
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. My credentials are pretty ordinary.
Edited on Fri Jul-08-11 09:17 PM by GliderGuider
My educational background is in software engineering, with 20 years doing R&D in the telecom industry up to the the tech wreck in 2000.

On all this stuff I'm an auto-didact.

Edited to add: when I started university mumble years ago I wanted to be a futurist, but got seduced by software design. Now I have the chance to fulfill that earlier ambition, but the landscape I'm looking at is a lot bleaker than the artificially intelligent, space traveling future I imagined back then...
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crikkett Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #3
19. I find this future's intelligence to be artificial
Edited on Sat Jul-09-11 09:11 AM by crikkett
it certainly isn't genuine


on edit: and we did get robots to Saturn, Mars, Venus and Mercury...
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #19
35. That's because we were expecting wisdom by now, but all we've achieved is greater cleverness. nt
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
4. K & R !!!
:kick:

:hi:
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Liberal_in_LA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
5. kick
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pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. I didn'y realize you're an ironist
The last line is the tell.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I vacillate wildly between despair, mindless optimism, ennui and deep irony.
It keeps life interesting.

SF author Spider Robinson penned one of my favourite quotes: "God is an iron." The reasoning is that if someone who commits gluttony is called a glutton, and someone who commits felony is a felon, then God is an iron...
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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #7
37. K & R for Spider Robinson reference
:kick:
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Electric Monk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. Hello. I like you, from what I've seen in earlier posts, but this one is tops. k&r
For some writers words flow easily, but for me it's like pulling teeth sometimes. I don't think I could have written what you wrote in your OP, but I thank you for doing so. Overshoot is exactly the right word. I hope the Cheneys (etc) don't win the mineshaft war. I'd rather see surface squirrels pwn em as they open the mineshaft doors.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Thanks. I don't think mineshafts are going to be quite enough this time.
This change has the potential to be a fair bit larger than a thermonuclear war, even if it's a lot slower and less noisy. Most people don't realize it's already happening, because the timelines involved are just long enough to let us misinterpret the symptoms as the illness.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
9. At the same time
we have broken the atom and further unraveling the universe, putting other progress into the transformational mix as awesome- more unique and unpredictable- as natural catastrophe. The power and intelligence of humanity is on a collision course with itself and reality. Should it survive the past ten thousand years of post age humanity will be as gone as the cave man hunter gatherer.

Except we may be living more like a few lucky cavemen in the very ugly transition. That is in 150 years.

The most we can see now seems a sure downturn of civilization that would appear at first typical except for the global scale and universal threat to mere survival.

We might get all noble and idealistic about this being a test and the good will prevail, etc. That is also too much like business as usual(even if the morally best to be comforting and if there is one thing certain to burn out the human experiment is the miserable business as usual of the past several millennia.
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Electric Monk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. Fascinating, isn't it?
Here we are.

Neat. Wow.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. It's an incredible time in history to be alive, for sure. nt
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flying_wahini Donating Member (856 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
11. thanks
Well written -
makes me very sad, though. Yes, there is always hope that people like us will spread the word.
Maybe we will all awaken from the "whistling through the graveyard' era.

Thanks
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. I know what you mean about sadness.
When I caught my first full glimpse of what's going on, I went into a tailspin of despair and nihilism for several years. It took a full-blown transformational experience to pull me out of it.

I'm convinced that helping people wake up, one way or another, is the best thing any of us can do for this amazing species.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:16 PM
Response to Original message
12. Must resist.
You've been reading Jensen again haven't you GG? :evilgrin:
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-11 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Hell no, Jensen has been reading me...
That's why he's so bummed out...
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CleanGreenFuture Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #14
32. That would not surprise me in the least. Really, it wouldn't.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 02:05 AM
Response to Original message
17. For me the problem is entirely technological, it is not political, it is not economical.
It is one reason I almost felt as though this entire article was pointed at me (I know of course that it wasn't, so don't drop me on FB!). :hi: :hug:

Our politics and our economics are what are precluding us from creating the technologies necessary to reverse the damage we have caused and indeed co-exist with the ecosystem, of course, but they are not the solution. You cannot feasibly reform economics or politics in a way that is conductive to the technologies necessary to reverse the damage we have caused and which would allow us to co-exist with the ecosystem.

For example, it is more profitable to flush toxic fluids into our water tables in order to more effectively extract natural-gas than it would be to shoot up a http://www.islandone.org/MMSG/aasm/">hundred billion dollars worth of technology and a few billion more dollars in labor (and training) after that to build space based solar power to power the entire world. Why? Because the former energy technology is centrally controlled, depleatable, and most importantly, relatively scarce (only certain places on the planet can use that technology beneficially), and that's where the politics of the matter come in. When politicians read the aforementioned link, a true bootstrap to the cosmos, it was rejected outright, without even a third party to come in to do a feasibility study on the feasibility study. How many of their constituents would be out of a job if they were to support such a system? Likewise, how quickly would their political contributions peter to nothing?

It's clear, obvious, to me that we have to build the necessary technologies outside of the exploitive system that exists today, because the system is simply incompatible with such technologies. No investment potential, no payback potential, and most importantly no (political) power potential. I'm a politician taking donations from fracking gas companies, I know damn sure that as long as fracking is going on, I'm guaranteed those donations, the people, the environment, the water tables be damned. The power I weld as a politician is assured. However, if some silly people come along and they're offering to build a space based solar recieving facility in my constituency and offer to do it for little to no cost, I as a politician no longer have something which I can use as a tool to remain in power.

So, as far as I'm concerned, for effectively ten thousand years, our civilization has been creating and exploiting technology within this power dynamic, for the general benefit of a few at the expense of the rest (this would necessarily be a Debord perspective, though I disagree with the ultimate conclusion of this observation). The Roman Aqueduct system benefited less than 1% of the Roman population at the Empires peak. The technology itself was merely for Rome and the surrounding cities. You look at the gluttony of the past decade and how most US made vehicles were major gas guzzlers and it's apparent that the technologies designed and implemented to make them go hardly had any reasonable application outside of wealthy westerners who benefited from artificially low prices. I'm sure anyone can think of a plethora of examples in this vein.

A New Technology starts by rejecting the authoritarian power dynamic that has persisted for so long. Open source or free software technologies that cannot be controlled by a small conglomerate of entities for their own gain. To be sure we're making http://gnusha.org/skdb/">small gains in that area but we require a lot more effort if we're going to beat the coming resource crunch. But with the advent of the internet we do have a technology which, unintentionally, became beneficial to more than the few who control it. Indeed, by trying to control it they have found that natural democracy rewards those who leave it alone, and to do so would hurt their bottom line. Those in power have accidentally stumbled upon a technology that is exactly not what they want.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. No worries mate!
FB is a hermetically sealed universe with its own rules. You're safe. :+

Actually, our positions aren't very far apart, except that I have developed a distaste for technology that you don't share. No worries there, either.

If politics and economics are preventing us from creating or deploying the necessary technologies, then "the problem" is precisely political and economic. I agree that a reform of those systems is not possible in the current circumstances. However, I don't think it's possible to build the necessary technologies outside the system, because there is no "outside" to the system any more. That's what globalization is all about. If such a technology was developed in isolation - say on a remote island completely secured by a benign version of Ernst Stavro Blofeld - it would still need to penetrate the system in order to reform it. Whether they system's resistance comes at the conception or penetration stages (if you'll pardon the unseemly imagery) the technology itself would face the same opposition.

I also agree that we have been developing our culture (including all technology) within the 10,000 year old power dynamic that is now flowering as global corporatism. Because of my dislike of hierarchy I approve heartily of decentralized and anarchistic manifestations of the "gift economy" mentality like open-source software and its internet underpinnings. gift economies will be making a comeback in the coming decades, and the more practice we get with them now, the better.

But I keep coming back to the ineluctable necessity of the ecological and resource underpinnings of culture - not just our current capitalist/corporatist culture but ANY and EVERY culture. What concerns me most is that the destabilization we are now seeing around the world is due to the erosion of those underpinnings. If that is true (and I'm firmly convinced that it is) it not only makes our current toxic industrial culture untenable, but also makes any successor culture problematic, no matter what its philosophical or organizational principles might be.

Thanks for the pointer to Debord! Even though I was on the streets of Paris in May, 1968 I had never run into him or the SI. My initial reaction to the Situationists is much like my reaction to anarcho-primitivism: they have excellent critiques, but lousy prescriptions. Revolutions don't work, because cultures don't grow out of pure human will. At their core they are shaped and constrained by the ecological, climatological and resource circumstances of the region, and revolutions can't change those. The concept of psychogeography (also new to me) looks like it might tread that ground, so I'll look into it.

It's always fun having you in on these bun-fights!
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #21
30. Society of the Spectacle and I have a serious love hate relationship.
I've wanted to write a rebuttal to it called "Spectacle of Society" but I never got around to it because I found I agreed with it more than I disagreed, but the disagreement was fundamental, in that basically the entire thing I find to be rubbish, in its conclusions, but its arguments are sound and its observations of how we got to where we are are pretty indisputable. I find that is often the case with regards to my view of other texts, like Jensens' work. I find for instance the arguments about agriculture to be perfectly valid, but the tiny optimist residing in my psyche keeps telling me "It didn't have to happen that way, and you've still failed to establish how it's a necessary condition!"

Yeah, it did happen that way. Science was expropriated, technology was expropriated, and we continue to perpetuate the cycle, but surely we can do better!
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Kablooie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 02:20 AM
Response to Original message
18. So let's have another cup of coffee, And let's have another piece of pie.
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guardian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:43 AM
Response to Original message
20. As always
entertaining reading

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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. Thanks...
:nopity:
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
23. The Past
There was one time period missing from my original post, so I thought I'd add it on here. Where did the global clusterfuck originate? What are the deep, obscure roots that support it, and made it possible in the first place?

The Past:
  • Evolution has given human beings a common set of psychological characteristics rooted in our brain structure. They have been modelled by Dr. Paul MacLean as the “Triune Brain”, which is a useful framework for understanding fundamental human behaviour patterns. These patterns include such behaviours as dominance, submission, competition, cooperation, altruism, xenophobia and our herding instinct (aka “group-think”). It also hints at the reasons why most human decisions are non-rational. These neuro-psychological qualities also give us a “hyperbolic discount function” in which distant, abstract threats are heavily discounted relative to immediate, tangible threats – regardless of the relative levels of existential threat involved.
  • Human culture is largely determined by the physical situation that exists at any particular place and time – specifically the food and water supply, material resource availability, and the climate. Culture is our structural response to those conditions, as mediated by our neuro-psychology. As conditions change, so does our culture.
  • Human population, our culture and our impact on the environment were all relatively stable from the first appearance of Homo sapiens 150,000 years ago until about 10,000 years ago.
  • Human numbers and environmental impact began to increase dramatically 10,000 years ago with the development of agriculture. The reason we developed agriculture at that time is open to speculation, but it probably had something to do with changing conditions following the last ice age.
  • The development of agriculture was also followed by a significant development of technology (in its broadest sense) that permitted people to manipulate their environment more easily and intensively.
  • The invention of writing about 5,000 years ago permitted the cross-generational storage and accumulation of knowledge, assisting the development and dissemination of technology.
  • The development of money, also about 5,000 years ago, decoupled the concept of value from the activity that actually generated the value. The concept of value was largely transferred to the money itself.
  • The next major upward break in human numbers and activity began about 200 years ago with the widespread adoption of fossil fuels. Since 1800 our population has grown from one billion to seven billion. Over 85% of that increase has come since the adoption of oil as our civilization’s keystone energy resource around 1900.

Starting 10,000 years ago we built a new culture based on agriculture, technology, writing and money that set the stage for the development of structured, stratified societies. As we became more proficient and the societies became more complex they developed power elites - monarchic, political, bureaucratic and corporate - to which power and wealth were channeled by the structures they created. With the replacement of wind, wood and water by coal, oil and gas, their position was finally, fully consolidated. The rest, as they say, is history.
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MrScorpio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 02:06 PM
Response to Original message
24. Any idea how long it will take civilization to collapse?
I'm serious.

I have feeling that the next 150 years will pretty much spell our downfall as a species.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. It's an impossible question to answer
Edited on Sat Jul-09-11 03:01 PM by GliderGuider
At what point can we say "it's over"? The unraveling of a civilization this large is going to take a while. It will happen in different ways at different rates in different places, so it may even be hard to recognize it as a "collapse". Certainly this is what is keeping people from realizing that it's already coming apart. We've accumulated such an enormous store of capital goods, materials, real property, infrastructure etc. that it's going to take us a long time to burn all the furniture. Even once our income drops off and we shift over to living mainly off our savings, we'll be like unemployed millionaires - it can take a long time for the party to wind down.

In terms of timelines, here's the sort of progression I would expect:
  • The next two to five years will mark a general recognition that the train has gone off the rails, as food and oil prices team up with the debt implosion to drive the global recession deeper into an ongoing depression.
  • The inflection of world population growth over to population decline will mark the next turning point, probably around 2030 to 2040.
  • A lot of how things unwind will depend on what happens politically and militarily between about 2020 and 2050 - this is inherently unpredictable.
  • By 2050 there could be a general recognition that the global aspect of our civilization is pretty well finished.
  • The final marker would be a re-stabilization of world population at somewhere between one and two billion by the end of this century.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 03:03 PM
Response to Original message
26. Very well done GliderGuilder...
Edited on Sat Jul-09-11 03:04 PM by JackRiddler
There's hardly a need to comment before your last point on the Present list:

"The world economy is in a continuing recession caused by a combination of human factors (excessive complexity and loss of control) and a tightening of resource inputs – especially oil. The symptoms vary from place to place, but the underpinnings are global."

Excessive complexity? Squishy.

The biggest problems are very simple, and can be summed up as real-existing capitalism. The economies are designed to concentrate an increasing proportion of wealth in the hands of the wealthiest. Nothing can be justified unless it shows a profit. Nations are reduced to bidding for completely unrestrained private capital by offering the lowest wages, lowest taxes and best conditions for profitability, nothing more. The finance economy is structured as a scam to enrich the top banks and enslave peoples and states by debt. Complexity is often little more than a cover for this, as with the recent, enormous real estate and derivatives fraud. Change will require multiple revolutions: in values, in wealth distribution, in the structure and aims of economies and businesses. Growth measured in pure output can no longer be the central criterion of economic health and development. Certainly stagnation in this kind of "growth" can no longer be allowed to cause perpetual and urgent crises. You can't ignore the class war as a primary driver of the developments you describe, helping with other factors to overdetermine the bad outcomes you list.

Maybe more later...
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. I think class war is an outcome, not a driver.
Edited on Sat Jul-09-11 03:53 PM by GliderGuider
I agree completely with the concentration of wealth. That's an inherent characteristic of power hierarchies, and it's seen in every sort of large-scale government or economic system in the last few thousand years. Modern corporatism (I really don't like calling it capitalism, because it's not...) is just the most efficient and pervasive form of power hierarchy so far, because it's backed up with mountains of technology and cheap energy.

I don't think that what "can be allowed" or not makes much difference to how things will unroll on the global scale. Re-regulation of some sectors of the corporatocracy would be a good idea, but will be mightily resisted, both overtly and covertly, by the powers that are already entrenched. We should be ready for serious push-back, and not be too disappointed if it takes a global economic collapse to release their stranglehold.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. I think this is abdicating cause and effect.
from my reading of history, it is more true, not that large systems produce concentrations of wealth and class war (they reinforce it once in place), but that every large-scale government and economic system of the last few thousand years originated in class (or group) war for land, wealth, power, dominance. This dynamic is causal.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #29
36. The interesting puzzle for me is where our cultural adoption of hierarchy originated.
Right now, with society already organized in a hierarchy, its easy to see that the power elite have figured out how to reinforce it and use its wealth-consolidation potential to their benefit. But what made us take the leap from mainly egalitarian societies to hierarchy? We started the climb from tribes with a headman as the only distinguished member. What prompted the stratification of the mass of tribe members? Some people have suggested it was the division of labour. I think may have taken hold when agriculture began to spread, and we began to look on stored food surpluses as "wealth" - those who guarded the surplus against rodents or plunderers may havbe begun to see it as "their" wealth. But I'm still not completely happy with that explanation. There's no doubt that hierarchies are supported by our evolved neuro-psychology, but so is egalitarianism.

Understanding the roots of this organization are important, because understanding them may help us avoid them (at least to some extent) in the next cycle of civilization.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #36
39. Let's not lose the micro-view, because we live in it.
It's incontestable that in complex civilizations, wealth has always been concentrated. But not always to the same extent in each and all. And with changes over time. So it's not a constant. For example, wealth in the US was highly concentrated in the 1920s, far more distributed until the 1970s, and has since again become more concentrated. I think it's clear that whatever the ultimate orgins are (an important question in itself), civilizational chicken or class-conflict egg, it was a class war strategy adopted in the 1970s (call it "neoliberalism" or "financialization" for short) that led to the far greater concentration of wealth today, with the rich richer than ever and the median having stagnated (or even worse off, thanks to accumulating the debt with which they kept raising their "standard of living").

So on the big history micro-level (which, we should note, means the generational units in which humans live out their lives), it's also incontestable that agentic class strategies are causal (among other factors).

Just some thoughts, hardly covering (or pretending to cover) the full ground of what we are addressing here.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 05:29 AM
Response to Reply #39
41. The current round of the class war (especially in America) began with the Powell Memo in 1971.
http://reclaimdemocracy.org/corporate_accountability/powell_memo_lewis.html

IMO Powell's horrid manifesto was the single most naked act of aggression by the oligarchy against the working class since the Great Depression. It set the agenda for the next 40 years of oppression, impoverishment, cultural stasis and shock capitalism in the US. It was their way of getting us to stay in our seats during the last act of global corporatization. And now its malignant fruit are about ready to flower.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #36
46. IMO heirarchy developed out of religion and resource redistrobution.
Somebody who has a reputation as a magician and a sorcerer will often come to have a leading position in the tribe. Over time such individuals took up a role in the redistribution of food stores via things like the Potlatch among the natives of the Pacific NW, gaining prestige by throwing by redistributive parties. As a division of labor developed these new leaders used their connections to the religious apparatus to claim god-like status.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 01:16 PM
Response to Reply #46
56. Most tribes had a headman and a shaman.
Rarely the same person, because the headman took care of the physical issues and the shaman concentrated on the spiritual. Of course that divide right there shows the dualistic underpinnings of culture that plague us to this day

But in order for hierarchy to develop it had to solve a social problem. I suspect the initial problem came about with agriculture, and was probably something like, "How do we secure and decide what to do with this surplus food we've produced?" So the tribe takes the question to the headman, and he says, "OK I'll take care of it. You two big guys guard the stash, and I'll figure out how to distribute it equitably..." Then when he skimmed a little off the top and the tribe grumbled, he enlisted the help of the shaman (in return for a suitable share of the spoils) to come up with evidence that the gods and ancestors had decided the headman's decision should be final. And prest-o change-o you suddenly have a well-fed king by divine right, a royal soothsayer, the beginnings of an army and a bunch of somewhat hungry tribe members standing around saying, "Shit, that worked out real well, didn't it?"
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:10 PM
Response to Reply #56
59. Good post!
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #26
53. Adding to the complexity/system collapse issue:
I am now watching a marvelous lecture series by Dr. Jospeh Trainer on YouTube,
"The Collapse of Complex Societies".

Very much worth the time to tune in to it ( 7 parts).

As he discusses the collapse of the Roman Empire, ( in part 3) he points out how expansion and conquest required increasingly complex "energy" inputs long after the initial extracted value of the conquest was gone.

And that this is a pattern of civilizations, pre-dating "capitalism".





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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. Anyone who reads Tainter, Diamond and Catton will have a pretty good handle on what's going on.
Edited on Mon Jul-11-11 01:02 PM by GliderGuider
William Catton's book "Overshoot" was what finally dropped the penny for me.

I really like Jared Diamond's critique of agriculture: The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race.
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. Had not heard of either of those.
Thanks for the recommends.

:hi:
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sad sally Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
28. Whew...very interesting.
"There is a certain relief in change, even though it be from bad to worse; as I have found it in traveling in a stagecoach, that it is often a comfort to shift one's position and be bruised in a new place." Tales of a Traveler by Washington Irving

may we all know when it's time to shift positions before it's too late...
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riderinthestorm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:39 PM
Response to Original message
31. Bookmarking for a later read when I'm not so damn tired from the heat...
Tried to rec but too late so here's a kick! Premise is wonderful... can't wait to take a shower and maybe wake up enough to read it. Otherwise tomorrow for sure....
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CleanGreenFuture Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-09-11 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
33. 75 years is deceptively optimistic. I suggest readers trim that by 2/3...just to be safe.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #33
34. That estimate of 75 years is just for the world population to stabilize below 2 billion.
Most of the heavy lifting and hard times will happen well before then. As I've said, I'm pretty sure that the bumping and jolting of the last few years is the signal that the shift is already under way. The next 25 years are probably going to produce the greatest sense of dislocation as the world that we're used to gives way.
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lunatica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
38. kick
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txlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-10-11 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
40. 42 recs as I write this. Are there so many pessimists on DU or do the optimists avoid GG
As always, GG makes for an entertaining read but the part about 8 billion people being "reduced" to 1 or 2 billion people really bothers me, morally and in my psyche.

As you pull out onto your street tomorrow morning, count the first 7 houses nearest you. Those are the people GG says must die. Or does the counting start one or more houses BEFORE yours (as in you are included in the culling of the population). Think about those people; those families. Remember their faces. GG firmly believes that they must all die, by whatever means necessary or by starvation, etc. I just couldn't stand idly by and let that happen.

We are so wasteful in nearly everything we do I find it impossible to believe that the stupid methods and ignorantly wasteful "technology" we use today will last even to 2050. But we are starting to make fundamental changes now. Electric cars use only 20% of the energy of an internal combustion car. LED light bulbs use 15% the energy of a "standard" lightbulb of the same light output. Houses can be better insulated and have thicker walls so they save 80% to 90% on heating and cooling costs. Geothermal heating and cooling also saves 80% of the energy in a well-insulated house.

By 2020, LED and Electric Cars will be as cheap or cheaper to buy than their current counterparts and will save you tons starting from the very first time you use them. Insulation (as in the PNC SmartHouse) is cheap right now, the only thing that needs to change are the uneducated practices of home builders. Geothermal heating and cooling is only 20% more expensive than a standard electric central Air Conditioner and a gas central heater, but the savings will pay for itself in just a few years.

My final thought is this: I cannot believe that 7 out of every 8 people will simply allow this travesty to happen; will simply lay down and die or cause the deaths of others so that they can survive. I have greater faith in the community of Man.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 05:46 AM
Response to Reply #40
42. I don't think there are many real choices left available to us
Edited on Mon Jul-11-11 06:12 AM by GliderGuider
It's not a question of any of us "allowing" this re-balancing of population to happen, and nobody is out there setting up species-wide programs of genocide. The reindeer on St. Matthew's Island didn't "allow" themselves to be starved to death - it was ecologically inevitable. In the larger view we are just another species, beholden at a basic level to the same laws as snail darters, gorillas and sperm whales. Our insatiable curiosity and cleverness have been much better at getting us into this mess than getting us out of it. In the end we are not in control. Our pretensions to reason are short-circuited at every turn by our unconscious, emotionally driven reptilian and limbic brains. As a result wWe appear to be incapable of grappling with the concept of limits, either to comprehend their implications or to accept their inevitability.

There's no malice in my analysis, regardless of how antithetical my conclusions may be. I'm just reporting on the current state of the human trajectory that was first detected by Meadows et al in "The Limits to Growth" back in 1971. The more I have been able to discard the cultural goggles of human exceptionalism, the clearer this picture has become. I think of my position less as pessimism than as realism - but then I would, wound't I?
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txlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #42
44. I didn't see malice; I saw a scolarly cold detachment to 7 billion deaths. I put a human face on it.
1.) You should also note that I did not disagree with you outright. Everything you wrote is exactly right --if we continue our current wasteful, unsustainable ways. I vehemently disagree that we (all the billions of us) will continue blindly in our current ways even as we see disaster looming on the horizon. You call this outlook "cultural goggles of human exceptionalism." Merriam-Webster defines exceptionalism as "the condition of being different from the norm." I can't think of a single word that better describes the human race compared to, for example, the Ostrich, Jellyfish, or (in your analogy) Deer. Just because most people choose not to use it for constructive purposes most of the time does not remove the fact that the combination of our brains, binocular vision, opposable thumbs and upright stance put us in a fortuitous category that no other animal can aspire to.

We have the singular ability to step above our physical capabilities, something a Deer could never do, and work together or devise tools and technologies that far outstrip our physical limitations. Birds of prey have eyesight many times sharper than humans yet only we humans have glimpsed the edge of the known universe --because of our technology, because of our exceptional brains.

2.) Ecologically inevitable. As stated in point #1 above, only if we continue our ignorant and unsustainable ways. Your response to my earlier post did not answer the fact that we are already taking the first baby steps toward a post-fossil fuels world. We are evolving our technology to improve energy efficiency --which means more people can be supported on the same amount of energy. Please reread that section of post #40 and answer the question: How does this fit with your prediction of doom and gloom for the human race?

3.) Your population numbers are actually too optimistic. According to scientists, the human population will hit 7 billion people by the end of 2011, and 9 billion by 2045. The problem is bigger than you thought. ref: http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/01/seven-billion/kunzig-text

I look forward to your perspective on these points.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #44
47. My perspective on your points:
I prefer to make the contrarian case fairly strongly because I think that most people understand the nature of the exceptionalism you mention. The problem I've seen over the years, that prompted me to assume this stance, is that most people recognize nothing but our exceptionalism. It's similar to our reactions to other exceptional situations like stock market bubbles, or the "information economy". We have a tendency to think "Things are different now , and the old rules don't apply."

I've seen a tremendous resistance to accepting the idea that an important part of us is still just a biological critter that eats, shits, fights and fucks just like every other mammalian species on the planet. It seems like there is a temptation to believe that our neocortex has somehow made us omnipotent, and any suggestion that at an existential level we share most of the characteristics of other mammals somehow debases our accomplishments. Certainly the idea that most of our important behaviour and decision-making is entirely unconscious, and is dressed up only after the fact with acceptable rationalizations, flies in the face of our cultural narrative of neocortical invincibility. We are more than walking neo-cortexes with opposable thumbs, and we have ignored that uncomfortable fact at our peril.

Energy efficiency by itself won't stop the runaway train. The predicament we're in has energy as one large component, but as I said in my OP we face many problems that are not energy-related. The soil and water problems, deforestation and desertification, streamlining of genomes, habitat destruction, chemical and garbage pollution, eutrophication and economic destabilization - these would be happening no matter what the underlying energy source was. The issues we would avoid by not using fossil fuels would be climate and weather pattern changes, and the acidification of the oceans. These are already done deals, and I see almost no possibility that new technologies or energy efficiency will reduce our consumption of fossil fuels, so long as they remain economically competitive.

In fact, improving energy efficiency could easily make the problem of human impact worse. Economically speaking, improving energy efficiency is identical to increasing the supply of energy. That effectively lowers the price of energy, leading to two outcomes: people keep doing the same amount of stuff as before, and they divert any money they save into other non-energy-related activities. Those activities tend to feed the non-energy problems I talked about above. Supporting more people and more human activity with less fossil energy is not a solution, it's just kicking the can down the road.

Conservation may be a different beast, but I expect people to become serious about it only after the shit has hit the fan and rising prices force them to rejig their lifestules.

There has been precious little evidence in the last 10,000 years that humans in large groups can even recognize abstract existential threats, let alone take cooperative, proactive measures against them. Certainly the evidence of trouble is clear now to all who care to look, but the consistent lack of action coming from the interminable string of climate change conferences we've seen since the Rio Summit doesn't make me very confident that "things are different now" when it comes to international policy-making. It hacks me off too, because I've seen how far-sighted and proactive people can be as individuals, but I really don't see any evidence that we have the head of steam we'd need to climb this hill.

I know what the UN medium fertility variant predicts for the world population by mid-century. Unfortunately, it is based on the asssumption of business as usual regarding food supplies and the global economy. My population projection is the result of including Peak Oil, a deepening global economic recession, and food supply limits due to climate change and rising input costs. In other words, I think the UN's numbers are invalid. I expect a much earlier and lower peak to world population than they do. That might be the only "optimistic" part of my scenario, but even that will be seen by classical economists as a disaster, because it implies rapidly aging populations, with decreases in the number of younger people to needed to keep the economy going.

I understand the pain and discomfort of imagining seven of every eight houses on the block being empty. It was that pain that drove me to the brink (and almost over it) for several years. I know that my current position seems clinical. However I think the opposing view is essentially sentimental. If we are serious about responding to the global crisis in whatever way we can, clear-eyed realism is going to be a lot more useful than sentiment. I don't expect my position to be either popular or widely adopted (42 recs notwithstanding). Most people are going to be emotionally overwhelmed as things take the next big step down, and their responses will echo their internal misperceptions about the nature and meaning of these new experiences.
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txlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #47
51. On your response to my points
First, thank you for addressing them for the most part. Courtesy here on DU has been in short supply lately and I want to thank you for taking the time to answer. We look at the world and see the same unsustainable practices. We both agree that our Oil supply has already hit Peak Oil and the price for things made with oil will rise, causing misery for those not able or not willing to get off their oil addiction.

* "part of us is still just a biological critter that eats, shits, fights and fucks just like every other mammalian species"
... Agreed. Just go to any bar or club anywhere in the USA. You'll see our ancestral instincts on vivid display, mating instincts gone wild because of a profusion of pheromones and flushing of certain body parts, chest pounding machismo, territorial displays and brutal attacks, etc. But that's only part of what we are. When we sober up the next morning it's back to work (perhaps after "the walk of shame" for some of us).

* "soil and water problems" and "Chemical pollution"
... I assume you mean due to pollution and non-sustainable farming practices. Yes, that is a big problem mostly caused by using fossil fuels. The solution is to rethink chemical industries which now rely on petroleum and other hazardous chemicals and use instead biofuels or bio-engineered bacteria that will naturally produce the desired precursors or in some cases the desired end product. Our farming practices has been the subject of several OPs and posts of mine: they are unsustainable and cannot be expanded to the developing world without serious repercussions and pollution of precious ground water as well as increased draining of already strained aquifer levels. Farming uses 75% of the potable water in the US, 20% of the petroleum used, wastes most of the water it uses and the runoff is highly toxic from pesticides and herbicides or highly charged with fertilizers so as to damage the ecosystems of nearby lakes, rivers, and streams. The solution is high density and vertical greenhouse growing techniques. These use only 5% of the water, produce almost zero waste, and grow up to 30 times the amount of produce per acre of land, they almost never need to use pesticides or herbicides so your produce will actually be healthy for you to eat. The water soluble fertilizers they use are more environment friendly than the farm field versions (many can be derived from such things as sea kelp and bacteria in fact) and can be filtered and reused or used with bio-remediation basins that grow crops for livestock or biofuels. Fracking has to be stopped immediately. There is already a citizens movement to end fracking and we all need to show the puppets in D.C. that they had better listen to us if they want to keep their cushy jobs.

Our factories and processing plants need heat to make their products or to heat water to clean them. I posted months ago about an incredible video I saw of a parabolic solar concentrating mirror 6 feet in diameter that concentrates sunlight down to a small point which becomes hot enough to melt rock. As it reaches a temperature of 3500 degrees Centigrade, they stated that there is no substance known to Man that can withstand the temperatures created with this device. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0_nuvPKIi8 In the video, it melts steel in a couple of seconds. So I started wondering why our current factories don't use larger versions of this idea to supplement their process heat needs. The technology to track the sun perfectly is already very cheap (Bill Gross says he can do it with a $1 microprocessor and two DC motors). I envisioned larger versions of this concentrator focusing on a pipe or a heat sink that will transfer the heat to a working fluid, perhaps mineral oil or other non-toxic fluid, that fluid flowing down the pipe past all the collectors and then down to the factory floor where the solar heat is needed. I also envisioned a revitalized American steel industry powered not by fossil fuels but the direct concentrated sunlight from 40 foot diameter version of this unit. They would have to replace a section of the roof with glass panels or leave that open to the environment and close it down when rain or other weather reduce the sun power. They could then use biofuels made from anything but a food crop to create the heat that they need when the sun isn't cooperating.

Years ago, Campbell's Soup tinkered with the idea for heating the water used to wash the cans before and after filling with product. They may not have had access to the best technology at the time and dropped the project. They were not using parabolic concentrating mirrors, just a simple series of looped piping on the roof. They proved that it worked but dropped the project due to breakdowns during the testing phase. I think it's time they revisited that idea because they only needed water that was 85 to 90 degrees C. http://sel.me.wisc.edu/trnsys/downloads/trnsedapps/demos/proj96.htm

But while I was searching for that 1970s solar attempt, I found that Campbell's Soup is putting 10 MW of solar PV on one of their factories. So Campbell's is going solar after all. http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/campbells-soup-facility-installs-solar-energy-system-021111/

* "deforestation and desertification" and "eutrophication" and "food supply limits due to climate change and rising input costs"
... Caused by unsustainable farming practices. See the solution above. As global climate changes begin to take a larger toll on the environment there will be no question that current farming methods cannot be sustained. Texas is slated to become a 120 degree desert so I take the problem seriously on a personal level. Greenhouse growing (when I use that term I mean hydroponic or aeroponic growing methods) will no longer be a curiosity or a seasonal supplement, it will be a necessity. Already today grocery stores are putting greenhouses on their roofs to supply fresh, wholesome produce year round.

Oh, yes, I forgot to mention that greenhouses allow trained personnel to tailor the environment to exactly match the needs of the particular plant they are growing; temperature, humidity, light levels, CO2 levels, exact nutrient compounds for each of the 3 growing cycles --computer controlled and automated system that costs less than $3000. Thus the higher yields: higher density growing and perfect growing conditions regardless of the actual weather with the ability to grow 3 or 4 harvests (depends on the plant variety of course) during the year versus 1 or 2 with our current farming practices. Example: greenhouse leaf lettuce can be harvested after 45 days -- potentially 8 harvests per year if grown under artificial light.

* "streamlining of genomes"
... As in the Irish potato blight of the last century; caused solely because they used only a single variety of potato. Agreed most heartily. Fortunately, seed banks are being filled with the full extent of nature's variety. Lack of diversity goes part and parcel with current farming methods. Greenhouse hydroponic growing eliminates the exposure to outdoor pests, fungi, pests in soil, etc., so there is far less susceptibility from a lack of diversity. But I agree that reliance on single varieties will spell disaster if we continue in our current unsustainable ways. I just hope we do not. We have the technology now, it is in use in Canada, the deserts of the USA and Mexico (greenhouse hydroponic growing).

* "habitat destruction, chemical and garbage pollution and economic destabilization" and "ocean acidification"
... We must plan pedestrian friendly cities that are higher density but not oppressive. Unchecked suburban sprawl is a multi-billion dollar industry and will be hard to stop but it is unsustainable and puts residents of the new developments more at the mercy of oil/Peak Oil/price spikes at the pump due to the longer commutes and generally zero access to public transportation.

Rain forests being burned down to provide 1 or 2 years of dirt farming is, to me, just sickening. The farmers get rich soil for only a couple of years so they move on and burn down more rain forest where the cycle starts again. Another stupid farming technique that we already know how to avoid. There is a movement to help the rain forest residents to keep the rain forest as it is and to harvest the variety of valuable fruits and plants that grow there. They are paid to *not* cut down the trees. It is a small victory in a decades long war. More efforts such as that need to be launched. It is possible to save and even replentish the lost rain forest by such arrangements with the local residents.

Garbage pollution is a direct result of having a society where the only ideal is to get more for yourself no matter who you hurt on your climb to the top or even to try to maintain your position on the societal ladder --packaging is super-sized to make it more difficult to steal. The frantic rush to keep up with this consumer society is also to blame. We want to buy cheap crap from overseas (but we don't want to think of the children laboring in factories under horrific conditions so we can have cheap crap). The cheap crap breaks within months or maybe a year... so you go buy the same cheap crap again... and it will fail after a short time... repeat on and on ad infinitum. The solution to this is education of children first and consumers next to let them see the piles and piles of garbage that we produce, and explain the consequences of our actions on the environment. Couple that with some retro thinking: if it's broken, fix it. Don't throw it away. I paid a technician to fix my dish washer that was no longer functioning. The parts he replaced failed within a year but I watched him closely enough that I could figure out how to replace the failing part myself this time. That was 2 1/2 years ago and it's still going strong. $40 in parts instead of $500 to $1000 for a new unit. And I saved it from the landfill.

We already know most of what we need to know to avoid the disaster scenario depicted in your post. By 2020 electric cars, LED lights, renewable energy sources with energy storage, bioplastics and biofuels will be price competitive with their fossil fuels-dependent counterparts. We can and we must make these tiny changes in our lives in order to save billions of lives.

PS, we haven't even started mining the oceans for their raw materials. Since they cover 70% of the planet we have the potential to access the resources while being careful not to disrupt the sensitive ecosystems on the ocean floor. Our story is only half written, IMO. We are not doomed yet if we stop acting stupid and start using the free energy that is all around us.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #42
62. The difference between the reindeer on St. Matthew's Island and us is we have technology.
Technology inevitably gives us some level of control over our circumstances.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #62
63. Even better than that, we have a potent neo-cortex as well.
So how on earth did we end up in this jam?

????
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. Authoritarianism.
That's my guess.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-12-11 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #64
65. If that's the case, how do we keep it in check?
It's been part of the human experience for 10,000 years.
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Bragi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 05:51 AM
Response to Original message
43. Thanks K and R
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
45. According to Australian environmentalist Paul Gildas we will do nothing until...
Edited on Mon Jul-11-11 08:30 AM by Odin2005
...a tipping point is reached and the reaction will be swift and decisive and we will essentially be put on a total war footing when to comes to solving the crisis. There will be strict government control over the economy, very much like in WW2. There will be rationing and tax increases for everyone, including confiscatory tax rates on the wealthy.

Maybe it's a generational thing (us Millennials are supposed to be like the Greatest Generation, a generation of optimistic techno-utopians), but I don't count out "big solutions".

IMO by the time this is over our society will be stronger, more powerful, and more advanced than it was before. We will be colonizing the solar system, stepping out into what Sagan called "the shores of the Cosmic Ocean".
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #45
48. According to Canadian ecologist Paul Chefurka we will do nothing until...
...a tipping point is reached and the world reaction will be confused and misdirected. Most nations will completely misunderstand the nature of the events they are living through, and their reactions will be intense but ultimately unhelpful or even harmful. Most will not understand this as an ecological/resource disaster, but will instead see it as an economic or political problem. There will be rationing for the poor, exemptions for the rich, much blaming and scapegoating, and a round of authoritarian governments on the house.

IMO by the time this is over people will have come to accept that limits are natural, and will have developed an outlook that allows them to live within them, and live happy and fulfilled lives despite massively straitened circumstances (at least compared to today's profligacy).

the point is, we don't know how it will turn out. Each of us will work towards our preferred outcome, and the true future will emerge from the dynamic of all of us doing that in the presence of whatever resources actually turn out to be available.

I see nothing disreputable in accepting natural limits, and much advantage in it if resources turn out to be limited. I prefer to promote a world-view that incorporates large doses of humility, a strong sense of proportionality and an interconnected ecological awareness.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #48
60. I think that most nations will likely be unable to do anything about it thanks to globalization.
Only five or so countries on this planet are agriculturally self-sufficient (that is, the protein necessary to keep the population alive is available within the borders of the country). And only one of them has abundant untapped energy sources that can be exploited at a 2:1 EROEI at the minimum.

The border to Mexico would be closed and everyone trying to cross, women and children alike, would be shot on sight. All of Latin America and Africa and China and India and much of Russia would undergo a serious internal culling whereby a billion of people would die from internal conflict and starvation. Rationing would be massive.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-12-11 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #60
66. All nations will simply do what they can
And will simply do what they feel they must in the face of many conflicting forces. I agree that the USA is likely to retreat to a stance of savage isolationism unmatched by anything in its history. It's also one of the candidates for a shift to nakedly authoritarian corporatist form governance. The signs are already there.

Europe (or what's left of it after the current economic shitstorm dies down) may want to do something similar in terms of isolationism, but their borders are too long to close and they will probably be overwhelmed by climate/economic/food refugees from the south and east. I'm betting on major involuntary political realignments in Europe in the coming two or three decades. Africa and Asia are the top candidates for "large-scale involuntary population reduction" through famine.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #45
61. I think we have a 50:50 chance of averting it, myself.
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Bragi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
49. What about societies with great inequalities?
I'm generally disposed towards your perspective, and one thing I've been thinking about recently is whether societies that have significant social and economic inequalities will fare more poorly during the coming environmental reckoning than those with greater equality?

What do you think about the impact that social and economic equality will have on a society's ability to adjust and survive the changes coming down?
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. I think that one is pretty predictable.
Societies with less inequality, like Scandinavian nations, tend to have cultural traditions of cooperation, trust and altruism. Those are the key qualities needed to weather the coming storms. Such societies may still run into trouble from resource, energy or food problems, but they are starting from a more solid and stable social situation. Having a feeling of mutuality is the key. When they feel that all are equal, everyone is seen as being in the same boat, and interpersonal aid tends to become altruistic and reciprocal.

The more unequal a society is, the worse the social fabric will tear. In places like the USA there seems to be more of a sense of isolation stemming from the "rugged individualist" myth and the competitiveness of the workplace. When life is seen as a zero-sum game, there's more of a tendency to "beggar thy neighbour" when things go wrong. There's also a tendency to assign blame rather than shoulder responsibility, and that is a toxic attitude both between neighbours and between classes. In a very unequal society (like many in Africa as well as the USA), the upper classes will make Herculean attempts to secure what they have against the new barbarians (the people who used to be their employees or servants). That may cause a lot of private-army and paramilitary police action that we might not see in more egalitarian societies.

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Bragi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #50
58. Predictable, but also central
Edited on Mon Jul-11-11 03:17 PM by Bragi
The reason I asked is simply because the impact of levels of inequality on future societal outcomes in the scenario you construct would likely be very consequential.

I agree with you that unequal societies, like the U.S., have less resilience, and are more likely to produce dire insecure conditions than are places with less social inequality.

The degree of inequality in a society needs to be a central consideration in designing survival/adjustment strategies for that society.

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Yooperman Donating Member (123 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
52. wow... is what comes to mind.... top notch analysis.... thanks
A very well put together synopsis of our situation.

Thanks for sharing and good luck to you in your part of the world.

Peace,

YM

:toast:
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-11-11 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
54. Very happy to kick this.
Most excellent thread.
bookmarked.
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