Am I wrong in supposing there will be a government shutdown next week, barring a deal?

[OmahaBlueDog]

If they can't borrow, they have to use incoming taxes and cash on hand to pay what they can.

My guess is that they will want to pay the bondholders, then the military in harms way, then FBI/Secret Service/and NSA/CIA deemed absolutely essential, then Soc. Security, and so-on down the list until they run out of cash. So it would follow that most Fed workers are getting some unplanned vacation next week - and possibly for many weeks to come. I'm betting the fed pension recepients get screwed as well?

Has anyone heard any practical news on what happens next week?

[Kennah]

1. I suggest practicing yoga

That way, each of us can get our head down between our legs so we can kiss our ass goodbye.

[Eric J in MN]

2. Maybe the Treasury Dept will sell assets and postpone...

...a shutdown.

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. I've heard the "give the Fed the option to buy" plan.

My personal favorite, though, is the $1T Platinum coin idea.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

3. And I think Obama is too scared of the Republicans to do anything drastic nt

[TomCADem]

10. Too late for that. Things will be drastic regardless of what President Obama does if...

...the debt ceiling is not raised, and we begin to default.

And, that is the beauty of Democracy! If we the American people elect a bunch of economic illiterates to control the House of Representatives, and they decide to not raise the debt ceiling. Well, that's the law!

[Sarah Ibarruri]

18. Economic illiterates. Absolutely! nt

[Ozymanithrax]

4. Actually, there is a constant small inflow of funds, (social security, taxes)

but less than is necessary to pay for everything.

So, the government only shuts down if there is no priority placed on the government operating. What they can not do is borrow money to pay for all those extra wars and such.

[Yupster]

5. USA Today had a good chart on this yesterday

We expect to take in $ 172 billion in August and spend $ 300 billion.

Interest on the debt was $ 30 billion
Social security was $ 50 billion
military contractors was the next biggest at $ 30 billion

I'm going on memory so #'s may be a bit off.

I figure medicare payments to doctors can be delayed. Doctors will expect that.

Basically after interest on the dent, the rest of the government would have to be cut in half.

If that can be done, we'd have ourselves a balanced budget.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. Well, you really didn't care about the Department of Commerce anyway, right?

So I figure if they can keep going, all the workers will have to take a major haircut in pay, and don't hold your breath for a road to be completed.

Could emergency user fees be instituted to keep the ATC system running and ensure that meat is still inspected? Really, I'd be good with that....

Thanks for that info.

[Drahthaardogs]

17. Military Contractors only get paid if civilians are working.

The DoD is a conglomerate of civilian and military employees. If it shuts down, no one is getting paid, neither soldiers nor seniors. Someone has to review the bill and cut the checks. They conveniently leave this part out. The big guys like Boeing and Lockeed Martin as well as Booze Allen and Hamilton are not going to get paid. Then they get to have buyer's remorse for the Tea Party.

[provis99]

8. that would be the least of our worries.

There would be an economic shutdown. 1 in 5 dollars received in income in America comes from the government. The economy would immediately go into recession with growth declining at least 20%.

[chill_wind]

9. U.S. Contingency Plan Gives Bondholders Priority (Bloomberg)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=439&topic_id=1603742&mesg_id=1603742

Beyond that, there seems to be very little agreement or open discussion of what those prioritizing plans would look like.

They were supposed to address that sometime today, according to an earlier Bloomberg report from this morning, but it doesn't look like that happened as things went on today.

Possibly this weekend?

"The Treasury is preparing contingency plans to pay the government’s obligations should Congress fail to raise the borrowing limit in time. Carney said Treasury officials may reveal the plans this weekend."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/house-bids-to-salvage-boehner-debt-ceiling-bill-as-democrats-eye-endgame.html

[OmahaBlueDog]

15. First, thanks for that

Second, I read this morning (and I apologize - now I cannot find the article) that the plan is in place, but the administration does not want to release details. IMO, that is a huge mistake. People need to know what's coming next week, as I'm betting we are going to have a government shutdown (as opposed to the default everyone has feared) for at least part of this week and maybe beyond. Think Minnesota. If people know tangible details, they know what to be angry about and have better incentives to twist the arms of congresscritters.

In the end, we'll get a deal with the house dems and the 30-40 republicans it will take to create a majority and give the rest of their party political cover.

[chill_wind]

19. Welcome. It's clear they want to put off having a conversation

like that with the American public and they must still be hoping to avoid it altogether.
I think that's why we read that the WH is open to a couple days' extension (IF) there are any closer signs of a legislative deal as the hours wind down.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1607886

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/174451-white-house-open-to-two-day-extension

I agree with you. People need and have a right to tangible details, even contingent ones.
Maybe I'm missing something, but as of this morning, it still looks like deadlock to me..

[OmahaBlueDog]

20. I confused. Instead of scuttling the Boehner plan, why didn't they amend the Hell out of it...

...and then approve it. They, they'd have a reconciliation meeting, and work out a solution behind closed doors. It'd be simpler to get the reconciled deal through the house, because then the Dems are on board.

[chill_wind]

21. That seems like a very reasonable question, OBD

Now-- both chambers are getting ready to reconvene (at 1 pm).

Both chambers of Congress are anticipated to resume around 1pm today. The House of Representatives is expected to hold a vote on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's debt crisis plan. That vote is expected to defeat act, acting as both revenge for Reid's killing of Speaker John Boehner's plan last night, and also conveying the message that House Republicans will want more Democratic compromises before a plan can pass.

It may be that the House winds up voting on Reid's plan before the Senate does. A test vote is currently anticipated there at around 1am on Sunday morning, though hours of wrangling will no doubt come before.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/wires/live_wire/live_wire.html#1299

Oy.

[On the Road]

11. The Administration Hasn't Said, and We Don't Know

It is a good guess that bondholders and military salaries will be paid first. There will be some money left, but no one knows how Obama will decide to distribute it. So a government shutdown seems like a good idea.

I do hope he shuts down the FAA and stops air travel. That will make people wake up pretty quickly.

[Shadowflash]

13. I do believe

That the FAA has already been shut down for the last couple of weeks because the republicans refused to renew their funding.

[On the Road]

14. I Didn't Think Airports Could Operate Without the FAA

Planes are still flying.

[Shadowflash]

22. Here you go.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/07/faa-shutdown-4000-furloughed-for-one-week-and-counting.html

[Kablooie]

12. We could start selling the gold in Fort Knox. That would help.

:sarcasm:

[OmahaBlueDog]

16. It may come to that