Fewer people apply for unemployment benefits

[bushisanidiot]

yet more good news about our improving economy.

Thank you President Obama and Speaker Pelosi!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fewer-people-apply-for-apf-375212488.html?x=0

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, the third drop in the past four weeks and a sign that the job market is slowly improving.

Weekly claims for jobless aid dipped by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 420,000 in the week ending Dec. 11, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure, fell for the sixth straight week to 422,750. That's the lowest level since August 2008, just before the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Weekly first-time applications below 425,000 tend to signal modest job growth. But economists say applications would need to dip consistently to 375,000 or below to indicate a significant decline in unemployment. Applications for unemployment benefits peaked during the recession at 651,000 in March 2009.

Claims have been steadily declining in the past two months, raising hopes among economists that layoffs are falling and employers are hiring more workers."

[thecrow]

1. It's because the 99ers are dropping off the charts

Me? I'm one of them.
I am part of the cause of the numbers dropping!!

[walldude]

2. Yup... this is a joke.. the actual unemployment rate

is somewhere between 17 and 22% and to say that it's getting better because less people are applying for unemployment...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/19556146/
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx

Shit after reading the link it says right in the damn article:

""Still, hiring hasn't picked up. Earlier this month, the government issued a disappointing jobs report that showed employers added only 39,000 net new jobs in November and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent.

The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose by 22,000 to 4.14 million, the department said. But that doesn't include another 4.8 million people receiving extended benefits under an emergency program paid for by the federal government.""

[thecrow]

7. I guess that after two years most unemployed people have:

a. Become homeless and/or without medical benefits
b. Moved into their family member's basement
c. Moved to a third world country for work
d. Committed suicide

The US is counting on us to do our part!

[jtown1123]

11. Don't forget the millions out of college who are unemployed but can't apply since they haven't

worked yet! Smoke and mirrors. I think unemployment is as high as 25%. Just based off of what I've seen in my family and neighborhood.

[TBF]

3. +1 nt

[udbcrzy2]

4. That's why the RepubliCons want to stop benefits

Then, they can claim that unemployment rate has been reduced. Wish that Congress would help the 99ers.
I am on my 2nd tier, but I thought that they were phasing all of the extensions out. Only jobs here are
for part-time work at stores or fast food. I would work 2-3 part-time jobs, but they want you to be available
all hours and days and that would not work out. I don't see how a manager can interview an adult looking for
full-time or close to full-time work and tell them the hours are about 12-hours per week.

[thecrow]

6. Part time work usually doesn't include benefits

That's what the part time hirers are phasing out.
....and we spiral downward.

[thecrow]

9. .....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x26776

[udbcrzy2]

10. This is the situation I am in

I worked full-time, was laid off, hired part-time, then laid off.
It reduced my benefits. The place that hired me part-time promised
me it was full-time, but it wasn't. They lied. Even the people
who work for the employment office say to take a part-time job
anyway. I agree that we are spiraling downward for sure.

[Statistical]

13. The unemployment rate (as in U-3 is 9.8%) has nothing to do with benefits. Nothing.

You can be getting benefits and not be considered unemployed for the purposes of U-3.
You can be receiving no benefits and be considered unemployed for the purpose of U-3.

[laylah]

8. My first thought!

Thoughts and prayers coming your way, thecrow. :hug:

Jenn

[Kber]

12. People dropping off the rolls has nothing to do with New Claims

FWIW, if you care to understand what the various reports mean, I've tried to sum it up here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x568914
(Unemployment Measures and What they Mean)

I hope you find something soon.

[Statistical]

14. If someone is on UI (and all 99ers are) then they aren't filing a NEW CLAIM.

New claims are falling as in the number of NEW unemployed persons seeking UI for the first time since becoming unemployed are falling.
99ers falling off the rolls also has no effect on the U-3 rate either.

Sorry your UI benefits are exausted but that doesn't make you claims any less false.

[w8liftinglady]

5. I wish it was because they didn't need it any more.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/disp.toc.htm
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/disp.t08.htm
http://www.bls.gov/home.htm

[Statistical]

16. new claims as in less workers are being displaced.

[Starry Messenger]

15. Guess a lot of you are going to be *shocked, shocked* when tent cities spring up on the WH lawn

:shrug:

[Statistical]

17. Thanks for the fact based post. A couple interest clips from the article...

The good:/
"Zandi expects the economy to grow at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the October-December quarter. That's up from previous estimates of around 2.5 percent. And for 2011, he and other economists now expect growth at roughly a 4 percent pace, up from earlier forecasts of around 2.7 percent."

3% is stall speed for a mature economy like US. Anytime economy is growing slower than 3% it doesn't have sufficient intertia and is vulnerable to shocks (like rising interest rates, rising taxes, international event, etc). Getting growth over 3% is mandatory to make recovery self sustained.

The bad:
"With 4 percent growth, the economy would at least be moving closer to the pace of expansion needed to bring down unemployment. Growth of 5 percent is needed for a full year to lower the jobless rate by one percentage point."

We lost a staggering number of jobs and it will takes year of solid growth to grow them back. This is the reality. Even with solid 4%-5% growth (any more is unrealistic) U-3 will only drop 1 pt in 2011. 9.8% -> 8.8%. That is the reality.


The ugly:
"The nation's unemployment rate is 9.8 percent, and economists expect it will surpass 10 percent again, though maybe only briefly. The main reason, they say, is that the improving economy will cause more out-of-work people to resume looking for jobs. People out of work aren't counted as unemployed unless they're actively seeking a job. During recessions, some unemployed people become discouraged and give up."

To be counted in U-3 you need to be looking for work. You don't need to be collecting benefits but you do need to be looking for work. As job situation improves those who had given up rejoin U-3. For every job gained 2 more people move from "discouraged" to unemployed (U-3). This will keep U-3 high for extended period of time even as the economy grows.