Ballots are out for OR-1st district. I'm fucking scared...

[Rabblevox]

Here's the 411 for those not familiar with the situation.

Oregon's 1st Congressional district has been reliably, deep-blue for decades. Since the melt-down and resignation of David Wu, that's very much in doubt.

The repubic candidate will almost definitely be Rob Cornilles, who is mega-rich, smart, and comes across as much less crazy than most rethugs. He doesn't have a credible challenger for the repug nomination.

On the left:
State Senator Suzanne Bonamici
State Representative Brad Witt
State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian

If you are truly a glutton for punishment, here are links to a recent debate and candidates forum.

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/10/democrats_vying_to_replace_dav.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBW-zZIVafE

Bottom line, none of the three would completely suck, and all three would be a vast improvement over Wu.

BUT... (and it's a BIG but) I walked away from the debates with very little confidence in the ability of any of them to beat Cornilles.

I'm voting for Avakian, I think he's the smartest and toughest of the bunch, but whoever the D nominee is, I'll work my ass off for them, and after the primary I'll probably be begging for help.

Oregon's First District is just too damn important to lose. And it's gonna be a dog-fight.

[MADem]

1. I hate to say this, but in a case like that, it's the most compelling personality that needs to

win the nomination, not necessarily the "best" (in terms of values, record, etc.) candidate.

The person who is witty, personable, can come back with a quick retort, argue persuasively, and has a good Q score (aka "X" factor) will be the most durable candidate--absent any scandals or missteps, of course.

For your sake I hope your candidate IS the smartest/toughest, and can sell his stuff. I don't know a thing about any of them, it's too far from home for me!

I'll give you one of those recs to boost visibility of this thread.

[Rabblevox]

2. I wish you weren't correct, if it was purely on values and record...

I would be supporting either Bonamici or Witt (both are a bit more progressive than Avakian), but they flubbed "soft-ball" questions too many times.

Avakian looks like everything you love to hate about politicians, but he had the facts and he had the sound bites, and he displayed a bit of fire that the other two lacked.

[MADem]

3. He's the guy, then!

Can't make the perfect the enemy of the good, particularly when the enemy is at the gates.

Incremental change with compromise is better than retreat, I always say!

[FarCenter]

4. This is the only poll I found, and it looks like Bonamicci is leading by a wide margin

Our Campaigns - Oregon District 1 - Special D Primary
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=741775

[Rabblevox]

5. Thanks for that, I hadn't seen a poll on this race yet. Bonamicci definitely benifits...

from early "name recognition", and a few key endorsements.

But she comes across on camera as befuddled, weak, and whining. And Witt is a nice enough guy, but kind of vapid. He'd make a great state legislator (oh, wait).

I think Avakian is the only one with the chops to take on Cornilles in the general, but I'm not all that crazy about him either.

In any case, this election will be one of the most hotly contested in the nation, and it is beyond vital that we keep the seat blue.

I really dislike elections where I feel forced to support someone I'm not thrilled about, but it is what it is, and OR-1st is TOO BLUE TO FAIL!

[cascadiance]

6. She's definitely had the early mail flyer campaign in high gear...

... which probably has helped her a little with these earlier polls. I've already had a few sent to me from her campaign already. I'm surprised that she's ahead of Avakian in this area, since Avakian had started his campaign before she did. Hopefully he will come out with some more flyers soon and we can get more "name recognition" in the community and such that they all understand the options. Maybe he's waiting so that he can "fill in the gap" with his flyers after she's already sent hers out to try and connect more with the base towards the end. Need to have these in the mail today or the next few days as most people have gotten their ballots now or are getting them in that time period.

I don't think I'd be as harsh on her as you are, but I am concerned that I don't want someone that will feel the need to "compromise" for a solution is more important than standing up for core Democratic Party principles, which is sorely needed in Washington now.