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Edited on Sun Dec-19-10 11:44 PM by Statistical
The North could steamroll the US forces in SK. Believe me I spent a year there. The US troops in SK are well equipped, well trained, well motivated and well fortified but it is 30,000 or so "trigger pullers" vs 1.2 million man army in the North. North Korea has tens of thousands of artillery pieces and the barrage would be devestating. The larger issue would be ordinance. The north would pour into the DMZ by the tens of thousands in everything from main battle tanks to trucks full of grunts. The only thing that will hold them back is a wall of firepower. The camp I was at had enough TOW-2B missiles to keep the Bradley armed for about first 18 hours of engagement. After that the tube will go silent and the North will pour in like a horde.
The North can easily take South Korea by force. They know it and we know. However to do so they will need to murder in cold blood 30,000 American troops. When that happens the President will have the public support for any level of force up to an including nuclear weapons. They know it and we know it.
1) North Korea invades South Korea 2) 30,000 American soldiers brutally killed in a fight they can't win 3) News stories run nonstop footage of burning American tanks, and bloodied corpses on American youth. 4) President authorizes the release of nuclear weapons on military targets in North Korea.
If you don't think it will go down like that remember the days after 9-11. Now multiply that by 10, now remember the enemy is clearly defined and has nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, now remember the leader is utterly insane. The goal will be to neutralize the North as quickly as possible. We know this, and the north knows this.
So that stalemate goes on decade after decade. When I was stationed in Korea we joked we were the "speed bump".
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