Biden campaign sets sights on flipping North Carolina in 2024

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: The Hill

03/19/24 5:09 PM ET


President Biden’s reelection campaign is eyeing North Carolina as a state to flip in 2024, a place where former President Trump barely eked out a win the last time the two went head-to-head. While the Biden campaign acknowledges it will “take relentless effort” to reach every voter it can by November, the Tar Heel State is seen as an opportunity, especially given a gubernatorial race that could boost Biden.

But strategists question how feasible that goal is, given the state hasn’t gone to a Democrat since 2008 and went to Trump in his last two White House bids. “It’s still aspirational, but the state is definitely in play,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye. “Trump should win it. If I were betting on it, I would bet Trump would win.”

North Carolina is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway-to-270 strategy through critical swing states, which include the so-called blue wall made up of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; western battlegrounds including Nevada and Arizona; and southern states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

North Carolina is included as part of a $30 million six-week advertising blitz the campaign announced after the State of the Union address to spend big in battleground states. Biden recently did radio interviews around Super Tuesday in Fayetteville and Charlotte to reach Black North Carolinians, one of several voting factions key to another victory. Biden and Vice President Harris will travel to North Carolina on March 26 as part of their effort to travel to every battleground state in March.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4542831-biden-campaign-flipping-north-carolina-2024/

[TexasDem69]

1. Didn't we have this same discussion a few weeks ago?

I fervently hope it happens but if it does then Biden won something like 350+ electoral votes. The likelihood of winning NC seems about the same as the likelihood of winning FL. But turn it blue—I’ve been hoping my home state would vote Democrat again since 2012.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. When you have states like NC that elect Democrats for governor

the potential is there. It would be more likely there than a KS or KY (both having (D) governors) given their past history, so why not?

GA and AZ were long shots that panned out.

Ironically, PA hadn't voted for a Republican President in almost 30 years until 2016, and that one win, followed by a loss for the GOP in 2020, resulted in the GOP going the full monty here in PA and taking the state seriously.

[TexasDem69]

6. I'm completely behind this

Just seems like a stretch. And I’m worried that we’ll focus on NC to the detriment of states that are better positioned for Biden

[BumRushDaShow]

8. They already have the money advantage over the GOP and have set aside for the swing states

so they are expanding the map.

One of the big complaints in the past (going back to before Obama in 2008) was how Democrats would always focus on the same "17 states" and would ignore the others. Obama's "business model" of "small donors" helped to expand the map to pick up states that were at one time untouchable (like VA, and eventually CO & NV).

[DemocraticPatriot]

11. North Carolina is not Florida or Texas, and comparing it to them is ludicrous,

Last edited Wed Mar 20, 2024, 07:09 PM - Edit history (1)

as I said "a few weeks ago"....


President Biden will have the MONEY to compete there, as well as all of the "must-win" states...
and Trump only won there in 2020 by a tiny margin

Casting doubt on a Democratic effort in North Carolina this November is "DEFEATIST"...

[TexasDem69]

17. Realism isn't defeatism

And I don’t particularly care for your accusation that I don’t support Democrats. I’ve been voting for Democrats longer than you’ve been alive, and doing so in many traditional red states like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. Not to mention a blue state or two like California. This is the last time I’ll defend my “blue” credentials to you, and this is the last time you should question them. I’d say most Democrats on this website don’t care about your misguided characterization of what a “real” Democrat looks like.

[DemocraticPatriot]

18. "Realism" isn't arguing against fighting for a state that we

came within 1.4% of winning in 2020, and where the Biden campaign thinks we have a real chance this year.

It seems overly pessimistic to want to give up on North Carolina at the beginning of the campaign, as it is arguably a swing state which we only barely lost last time.... and the state's GQP Gubernatorial nominee isn't going to be doing them any favors... AND President Biden's campaign appears likely to have TONs more money to spread around than Trump and the Republicans. He can well afford to dedicate some resources to attempting to flip North Carolina. Is it likely? I'd say no, but it IS possible. It's within the margin of error, for pete's sake.. We certainly can't win there if we don't play.

When presidential campaigns make a serious effort in a state that they are not guaranteed to win, it is a party-building investment. Hillary Clinton's serious campaign for Arizona in 2016 probably helped Joe Biden to win it in 2020. As such, if there's money to burn, we should probably even make some effort in Texas, just for the sake of the future. Things are pretty screwed up down there under the Republicans, aren't they? Maybe enough people are going to reach their limit with the Republican monopoly on 'leadership' there, sooner or later-- (or just VOTE, for a change. I've read about their abysmal voter turnout there.)

Sorry, I did not intend to seriously question your party credentials--- anything I said in that direction was meant to be sarcastic---
because I would say that "most Democrats on this website" want the Biden campaign to make a fight for North Carolina! I find the argument that we should not to be just so ridiculous IMHO that I got over-excited in my reply.

Now it's funny, but I don't recall the last time I made any 'what a real Democrat looks like' lectures, seems like an awful long time ago, but I'm often forgetful.... but what makes you think you know how old I am? Are you about as old as Joe Biden?

If you are, then you could have voted once before I was alive. Otherwise, no.

[TexasDem69]

19. Thanks for the thoughtful response!

And no, I’m not as old as President Biden. So apologies on that front. But I have voted Democrat since I could vote, and that was a long time ago.

[DemocraticPatriot]

21. I hope that the Biden campaign ends up with such a cash-lead

that they can do a little work in Texas this time.... It would help our Senate candidate if the top of the ticket has some presence in the campaign there. Even though the GOP are total wack-jobs, I don't consider Texas as 'beyond hope'...

Not like Florida. lol

[TexasDem69]

22. I remember when FL and OH were a bit blue

Then “swing” states. I’ve given up on both. FL seemed to go red in a shockingly short amount of time. TX (and NC) do seem like better options.

I really thought after 2012 that NC was a solid blue state, but that wasn’t the case.

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. The major thing in our favor

is an absolutely batshit crazy pair running for governor and superintendent of schools.

CNN just did a story on how Moore (running for superintendent has called for the execution of Obama and Biden, and is a total Q believer. Mark Robinson is an black candidate who quotes Hitler, is virulently anti-LGBTQ, and religiously insane.

[Cha]

2. I Hope So.. that would be a Miracle! TY, BRDS!

I read Alan Lichtman predicted NC might be in play!

[angrychair]

3. Ridiculous, piss on NC

We are not going to win a state that just nominated an overt Nazi and misogynist and bigot for governor. Just not going to happen.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. I think that nutjob is too freaky to win there

honestly. He's more loon than Mastriano was here in PA (who lost to the (D) by 15%.

[angrychair]

7. Republicans there

Nominated him by a huge margin. (R) Registration is still high there. It is not President Obama's North Carolina by any stretch of the imagination.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Yet they voted for Roy Cooper 2 elections in a row

I know there was a big influx to the "Research Triangle" area from the north over the past 20 years and that helped to blue it up (one of my old bosses ended up moving down there to the Smokeys to retire and she was a radical (D)). But then I think there has also been an influx from FL that added red back in. It would be a matter of getting the party all on the same page and get the urban turnout up.

[angrychair]

10. They also voted in

A Republican super majority that made him all but a figurehead.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. That was thanks to a tactic that they used in a number of other states

as you know - gerrymandering!

Just like what happened in 2010 with the census & redistricting where they took everything here in PA and in states like WI & MI, the 2020 census allowed some of the swing states to reverse this by or after 2020.

Since PA has an elected state Supreme Court, we were able to claw that back to make it a (D) majority, and once we had the (D) as governor, we were able to move forward with challenging the state legislative (AND congressional) districts. That was why in 2018, PA was able to redraw the gerrymandered congressional districts and after the GOP's whining and moaning and suing and losing, we were able to generate 4 new (D) congressional seats based on the GOP violation of the state Constitution's "compact and contiguous" requirement. The long slog post-2020 census and redistricting yielded more changes in the state legislative districts and (D)s were able to gain a remarkable 12 state House seats, allowing us to take that chamber back in 2022.

We are watching WI & MI now going through the same thing and NC can too at some point.

[angrychair]

14. That's good too hear

Some of that I didn't know. I hope your right. Hard not to write them off given Republicans extreme choice for candidate for governor. I'm so tired of all this insanity. Robinson is one of the more extreme I've seen of a particularly sad lot of candidates and he got hundreds of thousands of votes. Believing people that choose people like Robinson are reasonable or can be reasoned with, is a mistake. I don't want to find a "middle ground" with those type of people. I have nothing in common with them nor do I want to.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Robinson is no different from (R) Doug Mastriano who ran for Governor here in PA in 2022

against (D) Josh Shapiro or even (R) Kari Lake who ran against (D) Katie Hobbs for Governor in AZ also in 2022 - both (R)s were MAGat loons who LOST.

[TexasDem69]

20. So despite my agreement that President Biden won't win NC

As a native of North Carolina I’d invite you to fuck off for your “piss on NC” comment. Not appropriate. NC is probably the best state in the union.

[angrychair]

23. That overwhelmingly

Voted for a Nazi loving bigoted misogynistic racist.
That elected a state legislature that has done everything in its power to subvert democracy and cripple the Dem governor's ability to do his job.

I know lots of people there and even own a house in KDH. Family has owned homes there for almost 100 years.
I know NC very well. I know there used to be really good blue strongholds but with Trump rise in 2016, the state went to the dark side and never looked back.

[TexasDem69]

24. When did NC "overwhelmingly" vote for a Nazi?

[angrychair]

25. Have you not listened

To Robinson? He has denied the Holocaust happened and used similar language and even praised things that absolutely make him sound like a Nazi.

[TexasDem69]

26. The guy who is the nominee for governor?

He’s horrific but isn’t governor yet.

[angrychair]

28. He is the current

Lt. Governor. So he was still elected Lt Governor after saying all that crazy shit.

[blm]

29. There are some major factors at play.

The GOP is putting up its weakest slate of statewide candidates in decades. At the same time the Dem slate of statewide candidates is the strongest - no exaggeration. They are all smart and, importantly, all strong campaigners.

[All Mixed Up]

27. By that logic, Biden should give up Arizona too because you won't believe who the GOP nominated for senate...

[angrychair]

30. Honestly

I wouldn't put a lot of money in AZ either because it's incredibly unlikely to win it again and it's not necessary for the president to win.

[All Mixed Up]

31. Let's just take Georgia off the table too. And Wisconsin since, you know, they have Ron Johnson as their senator.

[angrychair]

32. We are unlikely to win GA again

Wisconsin is a blue state. All of those other states are truly unlikely to be won and are not required to win the election.
Besides 2020, GA hasn't been won by a Democrat since 1992.
Besides 2020, AZ hasn't been won by a Democrat since 1996.
Besides 2008, NC hasn't been won by a Democrat since 1976.
Odds are he isn't going to win any of them but fortunately he doesn't have to win them to win the election

[All Mixed Up]

33. Prior to 2008, Virginia hadn't voted Democratic since 1964.

By your own logic, Virginia is a state that in 2012 Obama had zero chance of winning again.

Unlike Georgia and Arizona, Wisconsin has one Republican senator.

[PortTack]

12. Go Joe...we've got your back!