Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistan
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson in December 2023 that Ukrainian forces would be able to hold out until March or April 2024 without additional US security assistance, a period through which Ukrainian forces are now passing without the arrival of US military aid. The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow the Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations, and Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and gain ground ahead of the arrival of the American security assistance. Two Ukrainian intelligence officers reportedly told the Financial Times that Russian forces aim to use ongoing offensive operations and missile strikes against Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for an expected large-scale Russian offensive operation in late May or in June.
Read more: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024
So the MAGAGOPs' delay allowed Russia better positions on the border to launch their summer offensive. That's a big win for Making America Great Again, eh?
There's lots more detail in the daily report, which is IMHO the best daily summary (sometimes not Sunday or holidays, but it depends) of the happenings in Ukraine and the region.
Disclaimer/Warning: ISW is a neocon think tank. While I feel their Ukraine reports are quite well-researched, often performed by natives to the area (they recruit Ukrainian scholars) with demonstrable local knowledge of what was sort of the pre-war "backwoods" of Ukraine in that nation's rural east and south; there is coverage on the site that seems to follow the more "traditional" neocon logic of U.S. intervention and nation-building - with Iran especially, but also in its monitoring of the growing Russian neo-neo-colonization of Africa.
SunSeeker
(53,157 posts)Delay is a dictator's friend. The delayed aid means more dead Ukrainian civilians.
TomCADem
(17,577 posts)The GOP and right wing media have happily gone from being known for standing up against Russian expansionism to being a parroting Russian propaganda. The months long delay in aide to the Ukraine is just the latest, but not last, example.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN25U06N/
"I'd like to express our deep gratitude for your work," wrote Peace Data communications manager Alice Schultz in a June 15 email seen by Reuters. "It's hard to believe how totalitarian countries like China (or Russia) are finding their ways to meddle even in the strongest democracies around the globe."
But that email, from a person claiming to be Schultz, now appears to have been a small part of one such meddling attempt.
Acting on a tip from the FBI, Facebook and Twitter said on Tuesday they had identified Peace Data as the centre of a Russian political influence campaign targeting left-wing voters in the United States, Britain and other countries.
orangecrush
(21,040 posts)Get the materials moving!
DJ Synikus Makisimus
(546 posts)A post elsewhere in D.U. noted that the U.S. just bought several Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, for which the only evident use would be to send them to Ukraine; since that's what most of their fleet are. A number of these aircraft have already been delivered to Ukraine from the former East Bloc nations that are now in NATO, with the idea that they will be replaced by U.S.-made (and probably EU-made) planes. There are apparently missile (and missile system) "stockpiles" of sorts, and they'll be the first things likely to arrive (and a critical need). Look for evidence that happened by in increase in successful defense against Russian missile attacks, as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russia's petroleum and natural gas infrastructure. There were reports a few months back that "stockpiles" of artillery shells had been rather depleted by previous shipments, and some folks were worried about too much being shipped from NATO forces. it'll take time to make some of the stuff that's not laying around, so that's probably overtime for 'ya if you work in a factory making stuff that goes boom. Shipping by air and rail needs to be coordinated and secured against sabotage in advance, so that's some work too. Bottom line is that the delay worked against logistics. They couldn't anticipate whether or how much aid would be approved.
orangecrush
(21,040 posts)Who has seen this before from the inside said there is no doubt stuff packed and ready to go that was just waiting for the signing.
I hope that's the case.