General Discussion

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,104 posts)

11. "Assumption is the mother of all fuckups". tRump does not fight fair & he has Putin's support

Sun Feb 25, 2024, 09:42 AM

Feb 25

Biden has arrayed against him:

* Adverserial center-right media that loves controversy above all else except the profits that controversy generates

* tRump is proven to lie, cheat, steal, and crime his way through life

* christo-fascist dominionists who only care about power

* Foreign bad actors, chiefly Putin who is experienced and has an apparatus and network already in place bending public opinion. Also includes Chinese hackers, islamo-facist Iranians, and NorKs.

* A deranged base of angry sheep who stick with tRump no matter what he says or does because they have cast themselves and their dear leader as victims

* A fleet of black swans, one of which has partially revealed itself in the form of a leap in generative AI capabilities

DO NOT ASSUME this is a normal campaign with normal voters in a placid electoral landscape.

This is not a normal campaign. Voters are agitated and volatile. The electoral landscape is cratered and smoking and under bombardment.

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Highlight:

He can't win the Presidency can he??? [View all] a kennedy Feb 25 OP

He will if enough Democrats assume he can't and stay home. sop Feb 25 #1

It is my recurring nightmare. Golden Raisin Feb 25 #34

Me too scared after talking Tree Lady Feb 25 #57

Have to ask them if they are a liberal or progressize dem edisdead Feb 25 #77

No the young ones; one voted Dem Tree Lady Feb 25 #88

He can't win, but he can be installed again. Irish_Dem Feb 25 #2

This orangecrush Feb 25 #72

He can win and he also can be installed if he doesn't themaguffin Feb 25 #73

Yes Irish_Dem Feb 25 #89

You, I and millions more can't stomach him... MiHale Feb 25 #3

Garland will have him in prison anytime now. Emile Feb 25 #4

He could win. Dulcinea Feb 25 #5

Yes, "He could win if enough of us don't vote".....WE MUST VOTE....ALL OF US. Stuart G Feb 25 #61

Shear numbers... Wuddles440 Feb 26 #107

I am not naive, but I am cautiously optimistic maxrandb Feb 25 #6

Thank you, I hope you're right. a kennedy Feb 25 #7

JOE WILL WIN....YES, I BELIEVE THAT WILL BE TRUE. Stuart G Feb 25 #62

Never say never Groundhawg Feb 25 #8

Never orangecrush Feb 25 #82

He couldn't win in 2016 Shrek Feb 25 #9

IF AZ and GA revert to their Red norm, we are in a spot of bother, especially if no felony criminal Trump convictions Celerity Feb 25 #10

I think Georgia will almost certainly return Red, and probably Michigan Polybius Feb 25 #43

If Biden loses Nevada in your scenario, he loses reelection. All Mixed Up Feb 25 #67

Perhaps not Polybius Feb 25 #90

Of all the close states in 2020, Michigan was Biden's most comfrotable margin. All Mixed Up Feb 25 #93

True, but Israel/Palestine and times change Polybius Feb 26 #94

If he loses Michigan, he won't win reelection. All Mixed Up Feb 26 #96

I think it strengthens my point more Polybius Feb 26 #98

Those 3 are all he needs. If the map stays the same as 2020 except for those 3 flips, Trump wins 272-266 Celerity Feb 25 #69

Unless he loses NC Polybius Feb 25 #91

NC is unlikely to flip Blue. It's went Blue once since 1976, when Obama barely won it in 2008. Biden is not polling well Celerity Feb 26 #99

I respectfully disagree that GA will go Red. Dulcinea Feb 27 #110

"Assumption is the mother of all fuckups". tRump does not fight fair & he has Putin's support Bernardo de La Paz Feb 25 #11

Only if we take the pressure off him. marble falls Feb 25 #12

He will if people are convinced that voting "uncommitted" and then not voting again is a legitimate response * Oopsie Daisy Feb 25 #13

Exactly. And for those who don't see it: Who the F**K do they think organized Oct. 7th? RandomNumbers Feb 25 #19

He can if people keep making faulty assumptions about GOP primary results. TwilightZone Feb 25 #14

This is what we're up against. Emile Feb 25 #15

JEEEZZZZZZZ!!! riversedge Feb 25 #29

No moral conpass. Scary. Berlin 1933. Joinfortmill Feb 25 #79

I know, scary. Emile Feb 26 #108

Yup orangecrush Feb 25 #83

He can't win if enough people GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE against him. dalton99a Feb 25 #16

I would add a codicil Celerity Feb 25 #20

+1 dalton99a Feb 25 #22

What is totally up in the air at this point is where third parties will be on the ballot. former9thward Feb 25 #37

Important message for anyone who would vote a 3rd party... consider_this Feb 25 #38

He can win the Presidency if Democratic voters don't vote. Niagara Feb 25 #17

Yes, it's a pity that we have elected representatives and former candidates encouraging voters to NOT support Biden. Oopsie Daisy Feb 25 #21

Eloquently stated, Oopsie Daisy. Niagara Feb 25 #36

It Can't Happen Here, by Sinclair Lewis Basic LA Feb 25 #18

He will be the President if Biden/Harris can't win crucial swing states. jalan48 Feb 25 #23

Biden voters need to turn out. Johonny Feb 25 #24

This is our problem exactly! Well put. Basic LA Feb 25 #35

We said that in 2016. Bottom line, this time he needs to lose so bad he's humiliated. tinrobot Feb 25 #25

It's not about the popular vote. EndlessWire Feb 25 #26

This! - we must remind folks... consider_this Feb 25 #42

Exactly, women and young women will be key. a kennedy Feb 25 #64

He can't... Mike Nelson Feb 25 #27

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with national votes TexasDem69 Feb 25 #85

I said and thought Trump could not win in 2016!! so this time I say-yes, it is a possibility. riversedge Feb 25 #28

He won in 2016, and almost won in 2020.. DemocratInPa Feb 25 #30

Yes, 5 of the seven million was CA and the other 2 was from NY. former9thward Feb 25 #39

This is my biggest concern, we barely beat him in 2020 after 4 years of the worst Admin ever. It's 4 years later, and Silent Type Feb 25 #47

We are running against the worst candidate ever trump Tribetime Feb 25 #52

Of course he can. beaglelover Feb 25 #31

Its not trending in his favor no. BootinUp Feb 25 #32

STOP LISTENING TO THE MEDIA.. DemocratInPa Feb 25 #40

Check your caffeine. nt BootinUp Feb 25 #41

Please explain me how they are our friends? DemocratInPa Feb 25 #44

It is very useful, imho, to BootinUp Feb 25 #48

"STOP LISTENING TO THE MEDIA" won't increase the chances of Biden winning Silent3 Feb 25 #80

He won't Norbert Feb 25 #33

He can. Don't think he will Sympthsical Feb 25 #45

60-40 is about where I'm at, which is an improvement from two months ago, when I was probably about 53-47 Midwestern Democrat Feb 25 #54

I'm 55/45 most the time that Biden will win. All Mixed Up Feb 25 #84

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 25 #46

Yes, he can win. Remember 2016 when they said he didn't have a chance. republianmushroom Feb 25 #49

He lost in 2020 by 7 million votes but came close to being reelected because of the fucking Electoral College. DavidDvorkin Feb 25 #50

Biden got 51% of the popular vote Locutusofborg Feb 25 #75

Yes, but the EC vote would have gone the other way with a small number of changed votes DavidDvorkin Feb 25 #87

Even more alarming than that... AcrossThePacific Feb 26 #100

I don't think he can legitimately win BlueKota Feb 25 #51

The best thing I think could happen is if biden steps down and endorse's harris Tribetime Feb 25 #53

Did you happen to catch the Lawrence O'Donnell last word segment on that? BootinUp Feb 25 #56

I saw it and turned it off. Because I don't think he was telling the full truth Tribetime Feb 25 #65

ok. Maybe someone can talk you down. nt BootinUp Feb 25 #66

He and his ccorrupt family will soon be speaking to themselves malaise Feb 25 #55

Damn I need this......thanks. a kennedy Feb 25 #74

I thought that TFG could not win in 2016 LetMyPeopleVote Feb 25 #58

Yes he can sarisataka Feb 25 #59

Post removed Post removed Feb 25 #60

TRUMP CAN'T WIN, IF WE ALL TURN OUT TO VOTE...THE WORD IS............"ALL." Stuart G Feb 25 #63

. BootinUp Feb 25 #70

Not if all Americans who are opposed to his ideology and practice turn out to vote for Biden lees1975 Feb 25 #68

With Florida and Ohio completely out of play, unfortunate yes - Trump can win. All Mixed Up Feb 25 #71

Right. Vote. Pray. Did I say Vote? Joinfortmill Feb 25 #76

I was saying the same thing eight years ago when he ran against Hillary. no_hypocrisy Feb 25 #78

Yes, it is certainly possible that Trump wins and ends Democracy. Chainfire Feb 25 #81

Of course he can win TexasDem69 Feb 25 #86

When Democrats CAN and do vote JustAnotherGen Feb 25 #92

RSO rso Feb 26 #105

I can't imagine it. That guy shouldn't be within 100 million miles from the WH mvd Feb 26 #95

He wasn't all that far away in 2020 kwolf68 Feb 26 #97

Of course he can. betsuni Feb 26 #101

That's what everyone thought in 2016 Jose Garcia Feb 26 #102

YES HE CAN. Once again, Biden only won by about 45k votes in '20 oldsoftie Feb 26 #103

The polls say that he can FBaggins Feb 26 #104

No he can not randr Feb 26 #106

Never underestimate nasty white people - history shows us that again and again. walkingman Feb 26 #109