USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Clinton 45%, Obama 44% -- NATIONAL!!

[dailykoff]

Democrat Barack Obama has erased Hillary Clinton's national lead in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, gaining 11 points over the last two weeks to make the nomination race a statistical tie. The new state of play: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%.

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain has surged into a 42%-24% lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. That's an 11-point jump for McCain over the last two weeks, during which he won the South Carolina and Florida primaries.

The poll is a snapshot of where things stand two days before Super Tuesday, when voters go to the polls in 22 states. People were interviewed Thursday through Saturday.

Obama, the Illinois senator, has been riding a wave of momentum since a huge win in South Carolina's Jan. 26 primary. He's been collecting endorsements from Sen. Edward Kennedy and other prominent Democrats, and in January alone raised $32 million.

Link: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/02/usa-todaygallup.html

:woohoo:

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dawgs]

2. What does that have to do with this poll?

:eyes:

[Occam Bandage]

3. SCANDEL? THAT'S HUGH! SERIESLY!

[dailykoff]

6. I'm shocked and appled!

[MadBadger]

5. STOP SPAMMING

[neutron]

22. STOP MAKING FUN OF MY SPELLING

I was educated in Mississippi. What do you expect?

[MadBadger]

26. I expect you to stop spamming DU

[neutron]

29. okee dokee

I'm not a spammer, just very upset.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[southern_dem]

19. stop spamming this in every thread n/t

[neutron]

27. If your drinking water had radioactive waste, you might

think it was important enough for people to know that your politician who
could have done something did not. And that he made a small fortune
from the industrial interests he protected with his watered down useless bill.

And don't call me a Hilbot. I was an Obama supporter till he started
smelling funny.

[Herman Munster]

4. I think this is a different poll than gallup's tracking poll

[dailykoff]

8. "The poll is a snapshot of where things stand two days before Super Tuesday."

Whatever it is, USA TODAY/Gallup is saying it's all tied up -- and Obama still has two more days to get his message out!

[UALRBSofL]

10. Do you think Hillary

will get momentum after her Town Hall on television monday night?

[dailykoff]

18. She might get a little

but it seems like only those already inclined to vote for her would be the ones tuning in.

[featherman]

9. Polls all over the place... I do like this one however LOL

[dailykoff]

12. Me too.

I expect there will be lots of surprises coming from "Jaws" (the Clinton campaign) over the next 48 hours, including crack pipes, Willie Hortons, and mushroom clouds galore, but unless they've got something really good -- which I doubt -- I think we're looking at a Kerry-style sweep on Super Tuesday.

[gasoline highway]

24. I'm trying not to get too hyped up....

I mean I hope they're true as an Obama supporter but I don't want another NH.

[usregimechange]

11. Kick!!!

:bounce:

[New Earth]

13. w00t

[protect our future]

14. Anyone see Hillary on Geo. Steph. this morning?

She talked so fast nonstop anyone watching might have thought she was mentally well.

She went negative, negative, negative on Obama, and it didn't work.

She may have a cold or be hoarse, because her voice was sounding scratchy and haggy.

I don't know how the media and the blogs will spin her appearance, but without the spin, she came out looking very bad. This may mean a big bounce for Obama nationwide in these last two days before Super Duper.

[dailykoff]

15. No but I saw Obama on Face the Nation

and he was the soul of presidential tact. He pretty much nixed the dream ticket idea, but not directly; he just politely changed the subject when the moderator (forget his name) brought it up.

[Adelante]

17. I agree

He set the perfect tone.

[1corona4u]

21. He must have improved...

from his stammering interview on MTP....hopefully, he didn't lie on FTN too....

[dailykoff]

23. Maybe his internal polls are giving him a liitle more confidence.

He did seem confident, though as always, modest. Didn't see Hilly but it sounds like maybe she's not feeling the same way.

[1corona4u]

28. Modest, LOL...

I think not.






(she looks shocked in this one)





Oh, and here's a good one of John pointing his finger at Obama...

[dailykoff]

30. The point is he wasn't gloating and had no harsh words for Hilly.

Sounds like the same can't be said of Hilly. :shrug:

[1corona4u]

32. That too will pass....

i'm sure he will have something snarky to say...soon. He always does.

[Alexander]

42. But snark is only okay when Hillary does it.

When Obama does it, stop the presses, that's horrible.

:eyes:

[TexasObserver]

16. I am generally dubious of polls I've not seen the underlying data

But the trend lines are quite clear, and I do believe those. Obama is trending up faster than Hillary, who appears to have peaked at less than 50%.

I believe he could land a knockout punch on Tuesday, but not her.

[Sulawesi]

20. Rasmussen has HRC up, and staunching the blood loss. I want to believe this one,...

but am cautious...

[jenmito]

31. Rasmussen is a regular on Faux. I don't trust his poll numbers.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. Rasmussen could be right, but remember this.

Every other poll released has Obama within 4 or so points, except the Pew Poll, which has him within 8. That poll is interesting, since last month Obama was down 15 in it. So all the polls, except Rasmussen, points to an Obama surge.

Which tells me either Rasmussen knows something these other pollsters don't, or they're going to be extremely wrong come Tuesday.

[VolcanoJen]

25. Holy Guacamole!

Why... that's amazing. Obama's been picking up a half to a full point almost daily.

With two days to go, it looks like he's got the momentum. Wow.

[Tropics_Dude83]

34. Ramussen is way off

Hillary could not possibly be up 11 points nationally but tied in the California poll that he did which is 45-44 Obama. They don't make sense.

[Tropics_Dude83]

35. Also Hillary's lead in the RCP average nationally is plunging

She was up 9.8 last night. Now it's down to 6.5

[Azathoth]

41. Ras probably had one huge (read: statistically anomalous) day for Hillary

and the error is going to be propagated because of the rolling average. At this point, it's definitely and outlier.

[suston96]

36. When getting excited about polls just before elections, consider this......

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Spread
Final Results - - 36.4 39.0 16.9 4.6 Clinton +2.6
RCP Average 01/05 - 01/07 - 38.3 30.0 18.3 5.7 Obama +8.3

Suffolk/WHDH 01/06 - 01/07 500 LV 39 34 15 4 Obama +5.0
American Res. Group 01/06 - 01/07 600 LV 40 31 20 4 Obama +9.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/05 - 01/07 862 LV 42 29 17 5 Obama +13.0
Rasmussen 01/05 - 01/07 1774 LV 37 30 19 8 Obama +7.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 - 01/06 599 LV 39 30 16 7 Obama +9.0
Marist 01/05 - 01/06 636 LV 36 28 22 7 Obama +8.0
CBS News 01/05 - 01/06 323 LV 35 28 19 5 Obama +7.0

Read the last column........That was the day of the NH election.......

Get the point?

[dailykoff]

37. Sure I get the point.

NH was stolen. But don't worry, CNN didn't tell you, so you don't have to believe it.

[Drunken Irishman]

39. Yes we all know about NH...

But then there are other states, as well, where the polls were pretty much right on.

Only one, ARG, had Iowa going to Hillary in a blowout, the rest had it too close to call (it finally broke for Obama).
All polls had Clinton losing NH.
Most polls had Clinton winning Nevada.
All polls had Obama winning South Carolina.
All polls had Clinton winning Florida.

[Thrill]

38. K&R

[suston96]

40. Gallup today.....?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104110/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

[David Zephyr]

43. Thanks for the Daily Tracking link, suston96. Clearly, Obama is surging perfectly at the right time.

There is clearly an established last moment trending to Barack and with two more days still left, it is not a good omen for the Clintons.

[Middle finga]

44. So does that mean only 1% is undecided?