538: Our Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft

[Algernon Moncrieff]

Our Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft

In this week’s politics chat, we check in on the Democratic presidential field for 2020. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Today’s chat is going to be a crazy one. It’s too early to make any bold claims about how the 2020 Democratic primary field is shaping up, but potential candidates are already making maybe-I’ll-run-for-president moves. So, it’s time for … 🎈FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’S 2020 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DRAFT!!!🎈

We’ll do six rounds. The goal is to pick the eventual 2020 Democratic nominee, but you also get points for having people on your team who do well but don’t win. (We’ll figure out how to judge this later/never.)

Nate has all our names in a hat and is having a neutral nonparticipant randomly pick the draft order …

[dlwickham]

1. I could definitely live with a Biden/Harris ticket

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. I know it's waaaay early, but I could see Biden / Harris

I could also see Biden / Klobuchar

[Hortensis]

23. Uncle Teddy Bear, and we all know the veep's role

in a campaign. She's young, female, biracial, a tough former prosecutor who can put it away and be warm and charming, and a strong liberal on social issues. She could be good.

And Biden just might be really good, at getting elected anyway. America's going to be bruised and worried, and Biden's famous warm fuzzies might be just the ticket. The character Reagan was playing--without the cold, distant inner reality. With her as a strong veep, a B-H administration could be rather like Obama's and his but reversed.

[dlwickham]

34. Klobuchar really doesn't do anything for me

she would be an extremely safe choice but what exactly does she bring to a ticket

[Algernon Moncrieff]

36. I had this discussion with another DUer

She's very popular in Minnesota - a state we normally take in a walk, but struggled to win in '16.

..and extremely safe could be a good thing.

[dlwickham]

38. how much would she help with the upper midwest though

and bring back those Obama voters who voted for the anti-Christ in 2016 or just stayed home

I think Harris would be a better draw. I firmly believe that Hillary chose Kaine because she knew he'd deliver Virginia.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

45. How much appeal will Harris have outside California/the West Coast?

That's an actual question - not intended as snark.

[dlwickham]

46. I think she would really transcend the usual geographical questions

She would compliment Biden; I can really see the same relationship Bill Clinton had with Al Gore; they were both southerners but they seemed like they were friends instead of just political allies

I can't imagine Biden not picking a VP with whom he would have a different relationship than he did with Obama.

she got her start in San Francisco politics and you don't win there by being the biggest policy wonk on the block; she's personable and I have friends who know her personally and they love her

[W_HAMILTON]

2. Interesting read.

I think I'd actually have Booker as my #1 choice in a draft like this, so, it was disappointing to hear him barely get a mention early on, and then have the early mention talking about how he's "played out."

This exchange made me laugh:

clare.malone: OK, so, this one might be a little out there ...
clare.malone: But I'm going to go with Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan.
clare.malone: Hear me out!
harry: Oh, Clare.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

5. I think the argument goes that people would see him as another Obama

...which could be good, actually.

The issue with Booker that I have personally is the same issue I have with Landrieu -- both are from states with a lot of institutionalized corruption at the state level.

[Demsrule86]

20. That could be very good after the orange shit stain.

[dlwickham]

39. unless Booker gets married between now and then, the gay rumors will hurt him

as a gay white man, I obviously don't give a flying rat's butt but how would it play with the more conservative black voters.

[elfin]

3. Don't care what others say - right now my picks are Warner/Klobuchar

But I am rarely right.

[dlwickham]

40. I like Warner

he comes across as one of the smartest people in the room but I don't know how personable he is

we elect our leaders on personality and not brains

[David__77]

6. I want a pro-peace candidate.

One who favors big cuts to defense spending and big tax increases to fund expanding social programs.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. The problem with that you have to get people to buy into facts and numbers

.. like more Americans have died from bee stings than terrorist attacks.

.. like drunk driving and opioids take are far bigger threats than anything in the Middle East.

.. like we shouldn't be surprised that North Korea has obtained nuclear weapons or ICBMs, since both are 60 year old technology. Tube televisions and transistors also came out of that era.

[Honeycombe8]

16. I don't consider opioid addiction a bigger threat than the M.E. or terrorism.

People have the freedom to become addicted or to get drunk.

[LanternWaste]

22. The number of dead as a direct consequence implies otherwise...

The number of dead as a direct consequence of each, compared and then contrasted, implies otherwise.

And as addiction and alcoholism are both diseases, I can certainly understand why you failed to say the more accurate and encompassing version... "People have the freedom to get diseases"

[Honeycombe8]

15. Are you serious?

You DO know that no one gets elected by promising "big tax increases"? Much less pushing for that. I want stable and sufficient tax revenues, but I sure as heck don't want "big tax increases." Who in his right mind does?

Now, if you're passing a single payer plan, and a tax increase is part of that, that's a different thing. It's also not necessarily a "big tax increase."

[stevenleser]

27. The political incompetence it takes to want the Dem nominee to propose big tax increases is

mind boggling.

Might as well just hand Trump a second term now. That's one of the few things that could do it.

You are 100% right.

[Honeycombe8]

32. You can say that again. Rule #1: Never say you're going to raise taxes...

even if you plan on doing just that. Sure fire way to lose.

[David__77]

28. Yes, Im serious.

It takes revenue to pay for medical coverage, education, housing the homeless, and so on. I don’t expect a candidate to use the phrase “big tax increases.” Even reversing the just passed corporate tax cut would be a big tax increase.

[Honeycombe8]

7. Franken is the only one that gets me excited, in that list.

Although some of those named at the bottom seem interesting. Castro, the Los Angeles Mayor, a governor or two. None of the current senators sound good. It's also hard to get around a Senate voting record, which is why Senators are often not elected.

I'm inclined to take my chances with someone new, like those at the bottom of the list. I know I'd vote enthusiastically for Franken in a heartbeat, though. I don't think he'd run.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

8. I love Al, but I hope he goes back to being a media figure

I could see him on MSNBC, or on Comedy Central.

Al Franken and Jon Stewart - that could be fun.

[Honeycombe8]

13. Boy, are YOU living in a different decade.

Stewart is GONE from political satire. Franken is GONE from satire, too. They have evolved, moved on. Now, it's Sandra Bee, Stephen Colbert, Kimmel, etc.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

24. It's not like Stewart is gone, and Franken needs work

Personally, I'd like to see Kimmel leave hosting and run for Senate. He;s become a powerful voice in the health care debate.

[Honeycombe8]

33. Stewart has moved on from political satire. He's producing some movies or something.

Franken's days of being a political satirist/entertainer are over, IMO. He is, however, a best selling author, and can give speeches to sold out crowds. He might do some comedy writing.

The millennials have their own crop of political comedians.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

35. Colbert and Kimmel are hardly Millenials

...and as for Samantha Bee - sorry, not a fan.

[Honeycombe8]

37. I didn't say THEY were. I said they are the new generation's holders of political humor...

and satire. Samantha Bee, as well. It's not required that you be a fan, I think.

Time has moved on. The new generation is here. Maybe you noticed that Letterman left his show a few years ago because the new generation's comedians had arrived?

If you're older, like I am, I feel your pain. Stewart, Franken, Letterman....they are irreplaceable.

[W_HAMILTON]

11. I was heartened to hear them talk about Franken...

...and surprised none of them brought up his resignation from the Senate. I think he would definitely be my #1 choice were he to run.

As a side note, I liked Harris initially, but I've since soured on her. Not only because of her calling for Franken's *EDIT* resignation, but because she is noticeably absent on the national stage. I think I've seen *one* interview that she's done. I get the feeling that she doesn't do many interviews because she doesn't want them to come back to haunt her if she does run for president. I understand the sentiment, but I think that's playing it too careful, especially during times like these. I want someone that is out there fighting.

I also didn't know much about Eric Garcetti until this "draft," but I looked him up and my first impressions are favorable.

[Honeycombe8]

14. I think you mean she called for Franken's ouster. Not for his support. ?? nt

[W_HAMILTON]

17. Oops, yes, you are right!

My brain doesn't work quite as well as it used to! I was deciding whether to use "called for his resignation" or "supported his resignation" and instead wrote "called for his support," hehe.

[Honeycombe8]

18. Yes, I was disappointed that she put her name on the list. I won't vote for her.

She's a "go along to get along" person, instead of a leader with vision and cajones. Bu there are a lot of other Democrats who are available to run. Is Castro too young? He's interesting.

[oberliner]

47. They didn't bring it up because this article is from 3 months ago

[mvd]

10. I'm hoping for a progressive like Sanders, but will settle for the one..

polling best against Trump/whatever Repuke is President when the time comes. If it's not Sanders, then I will have to accept that. Things are so bad that my perspective on the next election has changed. First we need Democrats in power, and then we can address type of Democrat.

[Hortensis]

25. Agree 100% about getting Democrats in power.

I do feel that most Democrats are generally the type we want and would show it in a congress controlled by solid Democratic majorities. Most young voters have literally never seen that, born after the New Deal era that ended around 1978.

For that matter, none of us have in the sense that all through the Democratic-dominated progressive era from the 1930s through the 1970s, the Democratic Party had a lot more conservatives, especially strong southern conservatives, who are now united with other conservatives, causing huge troubles, in the Republican Party. Overall, the Democratic caucuses have never been so liberal as now. People don't know it, though. Yet.

From hanging around here it's hard not to suspect these experts are overestimating Sanders' continued appeal. He's still the capital-P progressive leader, but increasingly less often mentioned, both on this forum and, notably, on the websites of different P-rogressive groups that have split off, which barely mention him, if at all, on their main pages.

My impression is that his 2016 followers are increasingly ready for another leader. I would support a competent, big-thinking, inclusive, liberal progressive whose plans were ambitious enough to appeal to them, but I'm concerned that a very different sort of iconoclast could harness the negative mood in these angry, worried times. Or just a no-go, third party splitter. We'll see.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

30. A Gillibrand/Franken ticket? Or Franken/Gillibrand?

What healing power!

Also , of course.

[CK_John]

19. IMO, whoever supports UBI will be the winning candidate.

[Demsrule86]

21. No they won't. It is a losing issue at the moment.

[CK_John]

42. Of course Michelle Obama is the only one that could pull it off.

[Demsrule86]

43. I don't think anyone could pull it off...country is not ready. But I love Michelle!

[Persondem]

26. Bleh, little creativity ... mostly establishment candidates with little appeal outside of

Democratic circles. I liked the Castro and Hickenlooper choices, but The USA won't go for a Hispanic at the top of the ticket yet and it's hard to say "President Hickenlooper" with a straight face.

Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington ... a western governor with great progressive credentials if matched with an east coast senator could put the Orange Crush on our current pResident.

[Orsino]

29. Harris/Waters, or Waters/Harris.

Fine by me if we substitute a Warner or Gillibrand in there. I say fuck it; let's swear in more women at every level.

[Amishman]

44. Not liking Harris at the top of the ticket

She has some baggage from her CA AG days

I might get flamed for this, but I think the CA connection in general would not be helpful in PA, MI, and WI.

And while I get a kick out of her directness, someone with a smoother speaking style would be better (something that President Obama did so well on the campaign trail)

I like Senator Booker for President on substance, style, and name recognition

I really like Klobuchar on style and strategy, but she needs to raise her profile

[StevieM]

31. Steyer/Inslee. (eom)

[BlueStater]

41. So nobody noticed this was first published back in September and isn't new? n/t

[oberliner]

48. The Franken talk is a dead giveaway

On another note - these 538 people are kind of insufferable.