Flake's speech is important

[grantcart]

We don't have to like Flake's legislative record to understand, and cheer, his latest speech.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/17/politics/jeff-flake-speech/index.html

It is important, and beneficial for three reasons:

1) It is obvious that he is putting down a marker for leadership in a post Trump Republican Party and that is also not an inherently bad thing because it is based on the premise that Trump will have to crash and burn before they can rebuild it.

2) Impeachment can be done with a majority of the House but it takes 2/3 for removal. President's aren't removed because they committed a crime, Reagan clearly broke the law with Iran/Contra. Removal of office is a political act and it cannot be done by a single party. It doesn't have to be unanimous but a significant number of the President's party must agree.

Flake makes the strongest case for Republicans to abandon the President because he bases it on a clear attack on First Amendment issues and attacks on basic American values of supporting a free and independent press. We will need more like this but getting the first Republican to stand up and call Trump a neo-Stalinist is a good first step.

3) It puts Republicans in the crucible. He is giving Democrats valuable footage for ads in November that will make the case that opposition to the President is a bipartisan affair and it gives cover for those Republicans who are looking for an excuse to vote for the Democrat.

AZ is clearly one of those places where it will make a difference. Trump didn't even get a majority here. He won with less than 4% of the vote and less than 100,000 votes. His speech was carefully crafted to pull on the heartstrings of Mormons. There are 400,000 Mormons in AZ.

More importantly it will force Republican candidates to answer questions whether or not they agree with Flake's speech. In the Congressional campaign season I expect that you will get some favourable Republican responses. More importantly it will drive many Republican candidates further to the right in the primary and sabotage their GE campaigns chances of winning.

In AZ McSally is the likely Republican Senatorial candidate but she is currently only polling at 31%

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/01/16/poll-shows-mcsally-frontrunner-arizona-senate-race-but-can-she-snag-donald-trumps-endorsemen/1036669001/

In order to win the primary she will have to be anti Flake and pro Trump. That may get her on to the GE ballot but it will likely be the difference in her being able to win in the GE. If she were to run a campaign based on "I am an independent" she might win, she is a good campaigner. Jeff Flake just did everything he could to force her to a pro-Trump position in a way that will undermine her GE chances.

It is possible that his speech will force other Republican primary candidates to have to answer tough questions that will make them more Trump for the primary and less electable in the general. If McSally loses by a small percentage and a Democrat takes his seat then his speech are likely to be the difference.

[Blue_true]

1. Flake is a useless windbag.

You can't oppose evil when you vote with it nearly 100% of the time.

[lapfog_1]

2. it was a great speech but goes nowhere

the elected repukes in both the Senate and the House have been fully co-opted and corrupted by this con artist racist. They are too afraid of his base which makes up some 66% of the remaining republican party.

Flake is going to retire... and cannot switch parties and RUN as a Democrat so...

If the Senate was 50-50 he could have a chance to caucus with Dems and give control of the Senate to Democrats... but the Senate is not 50-50

[grantcart]

3. It will have an impact in AZ. It will make McSally go to the right and make her more unelectable

Trump won by less than 100,000 votes in AZ, didn't even get a majority.

There are 400,000 Mormons in AZ.

Making it more difficult for McSally to win is not "going nowhere".

[lapfog_1]

4. who wins the primary there?

My guess is that McSally loses to Sheriff Joe.

We could see a repeat of Alabama

[BoneyardDem]

5. I don't know the percentage, but Mormons are exactly in the bag for Trump

...now, if we were talking Romney..............

[AmericanActivist]

6. I agree. Regardless of judgments about him and

his voting history, I think of him as if we are living in the TV series “Blacklist” where people are not black and white characters and where the either/or polarization of good people against bad people doesn’t exist because it’s not that simple.

I value Flake’s speeches and believe there must be a purpose for them in this current situation. Do I wish he voted differently in recent months, absolutely. Nonetheless I do not dismiss his words and agree that Trump behaves like Stalin. Of course he does, he is a wannabe dictator who praises other dictators and authoritarian regimes.

Just my two cents. And, btw, thanks for this post.

[Hortensis]

7. Good. But never forget he's a libertarian and has

been allied with the Kochs, whose money used to decide whether he would remain in office. Just last fall, before Flake announced his retirement, talk was that the Kochs were threatening to primary him along with others if he didn't produce better on their invesments.