Why I think the Democrats played this pretty well

[scheming daemons]

1. All this does is push things back 3 weeks. The shutdown option is there again.

2. CHIP is now off the table, and the GOP can not hold 9 million kids hostage again in 3 weeks. The GOP has lost a bargaining chip for February 8th. CHIP has been extended for 6 years.

3. There is a very vocal commitment from McConnell for a DACA bill on the floor by February 8th. If it doesn't happen, the shutdown that occurs at that time gives the Dems all the leverage. And it will give the Dems all the commercials they need to run for '18 if McConnell reneges.


What did the Dems lose today? 3 weeks. That's all.

What did the Dems gain today? CHIP off the table, 9 million kids get their health insurance. A vocal, with much fanfare, commitment from McConnell for a DACA vote by February 8th.


Because it was just a CR that lasts 3 weeks.... the GOP has LESS leverage than they had before.

[brooklynite]

1. The armchair strategists won't agree with you...

[scheming daemons]

2. That's because they think that anything short of 100% victory is failure.

That's not reality.

[brooklynite]

3. I don't think it's even "victory"...

...a number seem to care more for symbolic votes and positions rather than accomplishing policy.

[shenmue]

108. Exactly

[Iliyah]

70. Ditto

My 4 daughters are in the CHIP program. I am along side with my family fighting for DACA, immigration, no cuts to SS, Medicare, Medicaid, and the other programs being slashed. Education is important too. DACA will prevail.

[MaryMagdaline]

114. I am so glad you have some peace

As bad as things are, I was able to text my dear friends today, whose 3 children are covered by CHIPS, to let them know they are safe for 6 years. I haven't been able to sleep since CHIPS expired. We are scraping and clawing to keep people safe, starting with kids.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. I agree. While I don't trust McConnell as far as I can throw a grand piano,

he's on the record agreeing to considering a DACA bill. I think Schumer played the situation as well as he could; the Dems won't get blamed for a continuing shutdown and CHIP is being funded. It's not perfect but it's not bad. The naysayers will do the usual whining about Dems folding, but I don't think that's what happened at all.

[ginnyinWI]

14. +1

[lsewpershad]

50. Plus one more.

[Faux pas]

84. +10000000000000000000000000000000000000

[burnbaby]

5. chip was never off the table

which allowed the repubs to say some of the things they said

[OnDoutside]

6. And Democrats had to balance shutting down the Government vs the noble act of standing up for

the Dreamers. The public's patience would have run thin, after a point.

[OhioBlue]

7. I agree completely. Getting CHIP funded for 6

Years and not letting Rs hold it hostage is big. They should also work on preemptively passing Claire McCaskills bill to continue paying military benefits during a shut down.

[Freethinker65]

29. Yep. Get a vote on military funding

[Hekate]

124. Mitch McConnell is on camera shutting her down. Pretty good commercial -- for Claire. nt

[mcar]

8. I think you are correct

Thanks for this analysis.

[bullimiami]

9. This is just how I saw it. Get something for very little.

[FSogol]

10. +1. CHIP for 6 years is a big deal. n/t

[Cosmocat]

11. The longer this drug out the worse it would have been for Ds

Some people just don't understand the moment.

The only way to "resolve" DACA was to get both the House and Senate to vote and agree on a bill and 45 to sign it.

There is very little chance of this happening as is, there was ZERO chance of it happening with a government shutdown hanging over their heads.

[DownriverDem]

25. And Now

If what is going on isn't a motivator for Nov 2018, I don't know what it would take.

[bluestarone]

12. so my question. Is chips a done deal NOW or can it be brought up if revisited in 3 weeks?

[Wounded Bear]

24. Still need a House vote on this bill...

I'm hearing the talking heads say it'll probably pass, IF Ryan brings it to the floor.

Then Trump has to sign it.

We'll see.

[DownriverDem]

26. No

CHIP is good for 6 years now.

[Demsrule86]

91. done deal.

[bucolic_frolic]

13. Republicans also got CHIP off their plate

so they got a positive from it, unfortunately.

[Raven123]

16. Short term positive and probably cannot be leveraged again

[bigbrother05]

18. Hope they have to explain why it expired in Oct and waited until mid Jan

The GOP delayed CHIP to bash the Dems. Who's using the kids for political purposes?

[erronis]

39. But that's expecting the goppers to be able to keep more than one concept in their heads

It's black or white.

Not that it's black with colors, or it's white with extenuating circumstances.

Not that it affects my donors or penalizes people that voted against me.

No, it's "what feels good right now."

Usually that's the reaction of someone at the end of their line. Someone that has nothing left to live for. "What can I get, right now." For tomorrow, I might die (or lose my house seat.)

[Greywing]

15. I agree ... CHIP being off the table is a biggie.

February 8th it becomes about DACA. If McConnell does not keep his commitment about DACA there is going to be another showdown and I think Dems will be in a better position to hold the line.

[VaBchTgerLily]

17. interesting assessment-I hope you are right

[SunSeeker]

19. K & R

[TygrBright]

20. Agreed. This was sound tactical maneuvering by Schumer et al...

You can tell, in part, by how hard the GOPpies are working to spin it as a defeat for the Dems. Always a reliable indicator, that.

amusedly,
Bright

[Mr.Bill]

21. Trump will not sign a DACA bill.

Period.

[scheming daemons]

22. You are probably correct... which gives the Dems a giant club for '18 midterms to use....

....with the bonus that CHIP is now off the table.

[Mr.Bill]

35. And how many of them will get deported before then?

These are people not bargaining chips.

[MGKrebs]

38. What's your point?

If Trump won't sign it "period", then they get deported no matter what, so you might as well use it as a hammer.

[Mr.Bill]

40. He would have had to sign it eventually

if we kept the government shut down. We just gave up the best leverage we had and made a deal with people we can't trust.

[scheming daemons]

43. The GOP doesn't care if the government is shutdown. They never have.

Keeping the government shutdown doesn't hurt Trump or the GOP at all.


In addition, the leverage of a shutdown is *NOT* gone... since all this deal does is open the government for 3 weeks.

[MGKrebs]

51. Ah. That's different than " Trump will not sign a DACA bill.Period."

So I guess we'll see what happens.

[Mr.Bill]

55. He won't now,

because he's been shown we can be lied to and will give in.

[MGKrebs]

56. Virtually every headline says "Dems agree". That's a good place to be.

If he blocks it again it will be totally on him. You think he can withstand that. I'm not so sure. Of course Trump doesn't care, but McConnell and Ryan and everybody else that actually has to run again are not going to like it.

edit to add: Trump would not have agreed to anything without being able to "save face", to claim victory. Now he has been positioned into a place where he can sign something and claim victory. As long as we get what we want, that's OK. This sin't a sport, it's governing.

[Mr.Bill]

58. If he blocks it again,

40 million idiots will be on social media screaming WINNING! That's what he knows.

[Demsrule86]

92. No he wouldn't sign it. He is determined. Trump is not ever going to sign a DACA bill so unless

the GOP does it anyway and overrides his veto. It won't happen.

[scheming daemons]

41. The Democrats have absolutely *ZERO* control over that. You're right, they're not bargaining chips.

The Democrats have no ability to help or hurt them now. As long as GOP controls all three branches, the Democrats have no CAPABILITY to help the Dreamers.

All the Dems could do is put the GOP into a position where helping the Dreamers is the LEAST-BAD option for the GOP to take. Schumer has done that.

The GOP will get crushed if Dreamers start to get deported. The GOP will get crushed *LESS* if the make a deal to help Dreamers.


The GOP has three bad options.... and the least-bad one is helping Dreamers.


That's all that was within Schumer's power.


You have to understand the reality of the situation, which you clearly do not yet. The Democrats have *ZERO* ability to help the Dreamers without GOP votes. None. Nada. Zilch.

[Mr.Bill]

46. Yes we did, as long as the government stayed shut down.

We just gave up our strongest position.

Show me the Network where they are saying this is a win for us, because they sure ain't saying it very much on MSNBC.

[scheming daemons]

47. We didn't give up that bargaining position. The deal only opens the government until Feb 8.

The shutdown option still exists.... and that clock is already ticking.

[Mr.Bill]

49. In a political atmosphere with the people we are dealing with,

Feb. 8th is eons from now. I wouldn't even give you even money we can come up with the votes to filibuster it again.

[scheming daemons]

54. On Feb 8th, we'll be back exactly where we were on Jan 19.... but with one big exception....

9 million poor kids will have their health insurance.

[Mr.Bill]

57. Unlees a DACA person get railroaded on a murder charge,

or a nuclear bomb goes off somewhere, or a hijacked airplane crashes into a sold out sports stadium...etc.

We were in the moment with the leverage and we threw it away.

[scheming daemons]

59. What, in this deal, increases the odds of *ANY* of those things from happening before Feb 8?

Nuclear bomb going off somewhere was not impacted by this deal.

Hijacked plane crashing into sports stadium not impacted by this deal.

DACA person railroaded on murder charge not impacted by this deal.



We have the same limited leverage we had on Jan 19, on Feb 8.

[Mr.Bill]

61. The odds don't need to be increased.

They have always been there. Can you remember two consecutive weeks where the political situation was stable and the same in the last year? Hell, I can't remember two consecutive days that were predictable with this idiot in the White House.

[scheming daemons]

69. Correct. Dems were hostage negotiators dealing with a madman who took two hostages.....

...DACA and CHIP.

We just got one of those hostages freed..... and the other hostage is still alive, and we can work on saving that one.

[scheming daemons]

62. Use your game theory.

The alternative to this deal was to keep the government shut down.


How is that a pressure point on Trump and the GOP? They don't CARE if the government is shutdown. They'd take a shutdown that lasts 6 months, it doesn't matter one whit to them.

So how do Dreamers get helped by rejecting this deal?


A shutdown is only leverage if the GOP/Trump gives a damn about a shutdown. They don't. It doesn't hurt them with their constituents in the very least.


The Dems have limited options, being in the minority in both chambers. And they executed an option that removed a bargaining chip from the GOP (9 million CHIP kids), and didn't change the calculus on DACA one iota.

[Mr.Bill]

64. If you kept it shut down long enough to start

affecting the economy and the stock market, they would come crawling to us on their knees.

[scheming daemons]

67. That option exists Feb 8.

It didn't go away.

[Atticus]

60. Did not McConnell's "promise" specifically provide that it was conditioned on

"the government remaining open"? If Democrats withhold votes again and government does close again, expect to hear that we violated his terms and thereby "forfeited" our right to a DACA vote.

[Mr.Bill]

65. Good point. n/t

[Demsrule86]

94. If they have not made a deal by the time designated than then McConnell has lied so all bets are

off.

[yardwork]

48. Then all we can do is vote Republicans out of office.

Many of us noted at the time that electing Trump would be very bad. It's very bad.

[shanny]

106. one caveat to that (well, two)

get rid of Kelly and Miller and he might

[Mr.Bill]

109. I would agree, but

whoever takes their place will probably be much worse.

[Thekaspervote]

23. Agree totally

Thanks for the very precision breakdown

[PatrickforO]

27. I'm tending to agree with you.

It's really hard to read how the public will perceive who is at fault for the shutdown, and no one really wins. And CHIP funding for the next 6 years was a big win.

I think McConnell's vocal and public commitment to a DACA bill gives the Dems a bit more leverage in 3 weeks, just because if he reneges, then the Dems can trumpet they were lied to and the GOP will end up either having to pass a DACA bill or have another shutdown, but this time one they are responsible for due to a lie.

It will be interesting what happens when Ayn Rand's punk disciple Ryan and the slimy turtle McConnell lead their party in grabbing the third rail of cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Millions of Americans who actually do vote will then resist. I've never understood why elderly Americans tend to vote Republican, because they are out to screw everybody.

We'll see how it plays out, because if there is a battle for Social Security and Medicare this year, the GOP will truly get pasted in November. AARP has a lot of members, and when word gets out, it's going to be ugly.

[Hayduke Bomgarte]

32. Nearly half the public

Will blame the Dems, because faux, etc. will tell them that, if not already.

[mainer]

28. Thanks for the analysis. Your reasoning seems sound.

Mainly, CHIP is off the table and we can focus entirely on DACA now.

[guillaumeb]

30. A vote is promised, for what that is worth.

But that guarantees nothing because the House and Senate must agree on legislation, and the President must sign it.

In my view, the Democrats should remind voters, and the media, that the GOP controlled House has failed to produce an actual budget since September. These CRs are a sign of that GOP inability to govern.

[Demsrule86]

95. Good point...they stopped having budgets after the GOP took the house in 10.

[barbtries]

31. well put. I agree.

i know i'm supportive of the government running again. i hate republicans and know their motive is purely political and cynical and they don't give a rat's ass about the country, that they count on Democrats being pragmatic and caring about the country to run their games, but it had to happen. I do think that most Americans are beginning to see right through the Republicans and their sociopathic ways. Some of them will never believe it and some don't care, but i am very hopeful for a complete turnaround in control of Congress come November, and a different president not long after that.

[Joediss]

68. Agree

Don't forget about the ones , religious people, that are going to say , I'll pray about it , or just say something like, it's written in the book and think that there no difference in either party. I know alot of people like that. They are waiting on the Lord to come save them from this old cruel world . Where I live that's about 80% of the population.

[barbtries]

71. wow, I'm in NC

thankfully the blue part. as it is i get annoyed at the news which seems to throw religion into half the human interest stories. even NPR. i'm an atheist and i would love to see a few of these stories where an atheist shares that and can still be a good person.

there are definitely low-info, fundamentalist people out there who think he's the 2nd coming of christ and are anticipating the apocalypse. to me they are lost souls.

[Joediss]

111. Fascist

I think that all these religious nuts are wanting there God to come redeem the world and they are. Problem is, they going to carry the rest of us with them , that's a problem. I read some stories about the Christian fascist taking over by Chris Hedges , that was about 10 years ago , hell, they may be something to it.

[George II]

33. I pretty much agree with all of this. McConnell and other republicans are clearly documented...

...ON VIDEO that there will be open talks about DACA. The CHIP extension will last through half the next presidential term, which assuredly will be a Democrat.

But unfortunately McConnell didn't promise a DACA vote by February 8, but talks beginning by that date (unless I interpreted what said incorrectly)

[Honeycombe8]

34. In my view, this was a big loss for the Democrats.

Might as well have us all stamped in triplicate "WE WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHUTDOWN...NOW THAT THE REPUBS HAVE AGREED IN PART TO ONE OF OUR DEMANDS, WE WILL ALLOW THE GOVT TO CONTINUE." When that is far from the truth.

We have NO power. This is a Repub budget, Dems weren't consulted, we aren't responsible for it not being passed (the Repubs got only 47 Repub votes...and even McConnell himself didn't vote for it!).

It was made very clear that the Dems were not responsible. But now, with this deal, acquiescing to some "we'll talk about it later" deal, it makes it appear that it was the Dems all along that were the holdup, when we weren't.

And what we get for this huge mischaracterization is a wish and a song that the very people who repealed DACA (or supported its repeal) will debate it with us in a couple of weeks. Bad deal.

[scheming daemons]

37. You're wrong, and here's why.

The GOP was holding two hostages..... CHIP and DACA.

One of those hostages has now been freed. The other one will be held for 3 more weeks, but even with that there are 3 possible outcomes:


1. DACA deal by March 5.

- This is the ultimate win. DACA recipients get to stay, the hardline MAGAts get pissed and demoralized.


2. No DACA deal by March 5. Trump starts deporting Dreamers.

- The optics of Trump's ICE stormtroopers removing crying Dreamers from their homes to deport them to countries they've never known will give birth to 10,000 Democratic campaign ads, and crank the outrage among voters to 11 on a scale of 1-to-10. It will cause a bigger blue wave then we've ever could have imagined.

3. No DACA deal by March 5. Trump does NOT deport Dreamers.

- Somewhere in Trump's reptilian brain, he knows that the optics of rounding up Dreamers and deporting them will be extremely destructive to the GOP. See #2 above. So Trump blinks and does NOT begin deporting Dreamers, giving another temporary reprieve to allow them to stay here. Democrats will still be outraged over the potential deportations, and MAGAts will be pissed that the brown people get to stay here longer. These will help the blue wave.


Use your ability to game this out. Game theory shows *NO* good outcomes for Republicans here....They either allow DACA recipients to stay - pissing off their base... or they allow DACA recipients to be deported - thus increasing the outrage from normal Americans to new heights.

The Democratic Party wins in either case for November.

[The Mouth]

80. I really like and appreciate your application of Game Theory

to this situation.

I am a bit unsure if the optics of ICE deporting dreamers is going to hurt the GOP as much as some people assume. I hope you are right (actually I hope it never happens) but may AI ask why you feel it will hurt the Rethugs as much as you do?

thanks.

[scheming daemons]

81. It will cause cheering among their 35% hard base... but will crater them among the "middle"

The GOP cannot win with *JUST* the Trump base.

They need the independents and moderates. They got them in 2016, because of their extreme dislike of Hillary Clinton. But they will NOT get the independents and moderates if images of ICE stormtroopers dragging Dreamers from their homes become campaign ads.

84% of the population is against deporting Dreamers.

Trump would be creating political suicide in November of 2018 if he starts deporting them before the election.

[Atticus]

82. You're wrong and here's why.

Your premise that there are only three possible outcomes is, at best, disingenuous. The other possibilities are too numerous to even begin to discuss, but let's look at the three you chose.

1.) Doesn't whether or not this is the "ultimate win" depend on the terms of the "DACA deal"? If it criminalizes a Dreamer's poverty(which has already been proposed) and redefines "Dreamer" to include just half those now covered, is that a ""win"?

2.). This totally ignores the very real people who will be deported and focuses entirely on how Democrats would make political hay out of their life-shattering misfortune. This is in the same vein as DT Jr. saying the shutdown would be "good" for them, only this is worse, in my opinion.

3.). This option simply accepts continuing inaction and a continuation of daily stress and anxiety for hundreds of thousands of innocent young people who lives have been "on hold" for too long. But, that's apparently ok as it "helps the blue wave".

Finally, I wonder if Dreamers might be offended by their faces being decided by "game theory"?

[scheming daemons]

83. You're not dealing with the reality in which we exist

The GOP controls both houses. The Dems can do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING on DACA before the midterms, without GOP help. NOTHING.

The limited options the Dems have, as a minority party, are as follows: Extract what you can, and politically make it such that the GOP's least-bad option (from the GOP's perspective) to pass a DACA fix.

#2 and #3 would be awful options for the Dreamers, and *ZERO* Democrats want that to happen. But the Democrats lilterally have no capability to prevent them from happening - except to extract a political price from the GOP if they do happen.

Democrats can't stop mass deportations of Dreamers, no matter what they do, if the GOP and Trump are intent on doing it. They simply can't, and that's the reality you haven't been able to come to grips with.


From Schumer's perspective.... all we can do is make it as politically painful for the GOP to do that as we can. That's what results 2 and 3 mean. "Give us a DACA deal, or the blue wave will overwhelm you."

[Atticus]

85. Thanks for your courtesy. We disagree about methods, not goals. My "reality" includes coloring

side the lines. Yours does not. Time will tell which is correct.

[Honeycombe8]

100. +1. nt

[Honeycombe8]

99. I'm seeing it already on tv. The Dem's "resistance" against the budget worked...

Saying that now, because the Dems are being more reasonable, the Republicans can fund the budget.

Trump even made a statement to that effect already. Glad that the Democrats are being reasonable, now.

So ALL the blame has now been put on the Democrats. Yesterday? No...Repubs were saying it's Dems' fault, but weak, and it wasn't catching on. It was accepted that it was the Republican failure, to shut down the govt. They'd take hell in future elections because of it. And so forth.

Now the message is very different. HUGE mistake.

[Atticus]

63. That makes two of us. nt

[Demsrule86]

96. The Dems were being blamed. And Schumer got what he could.

Elections have consequences. If we had at least taken the Senate...it would be different. And don't talk to me about more progressive candidates...you can't do better than Feingold who was defeated in Wisconsin.

[Honeycombe8]

102. The Dems were NOT being blamed collectively by most people. But they are now.

The proof is in the pudding.

Many people previously talking about the Trump shutdown, the Republican shutdown, the Republican budget that even McConnell didn't vote for, Trump not saying what he'll sign.

NOW...it's all about: The Democrats are finally being reasonable, the Democrats are reconsidering their shutdown. Trump has issued a statement about the Dems being reasonable, now. Other media talking about the Democrats coming to the table, finally.

No more blaming the Republicans for this. It's been put on the Democrats. HUGE mistake.

[Lanius]

36. Good summation of how I feel about the shutdown and reopening.

Getting CHIP funding for six years is a big deal, plus the Republicans can't use it as leverage in a future showdown. Although I think many of us feel that CHIP should never have been a bargaining chip in the first place!

[Awsi Dooger]

42. I don't think we played it well but it probably doesn't matter

Republicans will try to use this but independents won't fall for it, not with Trump guaranteed to say and do at least a dozen things that will dwarf it in significance leading to November.

[Nanjeanne]

44. Dems lost 3 weeks and 2000 Dreamers will lose status between now and Feb 8

[scheming daemons]

45. Those dreamers would've lost their status regardless of this deal.

[yardwork]

52. I agree, and for those who allowed Trump in office: this is your fault.

We're hearing whining and handwringing from the very same people who couldn't bring themselves to vote for the Democratic nominee.

If Hillary were president, we wouldn't be in this situation.

[Silver Gaia]

88. Yes. Thank you.

[Demsrule86]

101. +1000

I am waiting for Susan Sarandon to weigh in. I have my barf bag.

[samnsara]

53. i agree plus they have to prove they arent welchers..

....their 'good name' is at stake ( hahahahahahaha)

[paulkienitz]

66. We're just lucky that McConnell blinked.

This could easily have gone very wrong. They want a running government less than we do, and if it had gone on for a while, it would have been a tough sell to paint this shutdown as Trump's and McConnell's fault to the lower-information public. Because the fact is, it really was Democrats who started it and chose to make it happen. Thankfully, the outcome was overall positive, but I really don't want to see them making a habit of this tactic.

[bullwinkle428]

72. Had a fantasy about shutdown ruining Mango Unchained's SOTU address, but

maybe that was a bridge too far.

[lagomorph777]

73. Thanks for the summary; I feel a bit more optimism.

McTurdle and the RePutins are apparently beginning to comprehend the magnitude of the Blue Tsunami that is just offshore.

[ollie10]

74. We got rolled

We got nothing.

Chip was part of the original resolution

DACA may or may not be passed.

We threaten to shut down government again....they will laugh at us and say go ahead....they know we would chicken out in a day or two

Weak kneed. Got rolled.

[scheming daemons]

75. What did the GOP get in today's deal?

Here's your chance:


Go.

[ollie10]

76. They now know we will cave the next time too

We showed our hand.

Caved.

Do you really believe the Rs will pass DACA now? And Trump will sign it?

I don't

[scheming daemons]

77. I didn't believe the Rs would pass DACA before today. Or that Trump would sign it.

Nothing that happened today changed that calculus at all.


We *KNOW* they won't pass and sign DACA. So our only option as a minority party is to beat them over the heads with it to either A) get them to realize it is an electoral loser .... or B) wipe them out in the midterms because of it.


If you know, as you and I know, that the GOP will never act on DACA..... then we need to turn it into a weapon.


Schumer took a step toward doing that.

[ollie10]

97. so you don't care about the people involved, they are just pawns in a political game to you?

[Demsrule86]

103. What makes you think they ever would have? Sad that we are in this position...If Clinton had won,

would have been different.

[harun]

122. They forced Dem's to show their cards on shutdown support. Which they now know

is very weak. Corporate Dem's can't wait to compromise and throw Progressives under the bus.

GOP also got Progressives upset. They will try to break Progressives spirit so they don't turn out in as high of numbers for the next election.

GOP also took away leverage from the Dem's. Shutdown is the only leverage Dem's have at this point.

You will see how promises from McConnell turn out. You will get nothing.

[Gothmog]

78. I negotiate for a living and I agree with your analysis

[zipplewrath]

79. Some prominent Senators disagree with you

It could be all posturing, so we may not know for some time. But I think the jury is still out here. That said, I never really saw the "exit strategy" here.

[scheming daemons]

90. It is posturing by those who want to run for President in 2020. And that's ok.

[Demsrule86]

104. posturing...for the primary.

[customerserviceguy]

86. McConnell doesn't have to renege

He can hold the vote, and offer up all the amendments that won't pass, and there will be no bill that can clear sixty votes in the Senate. He can still nominally keep his promise, while delivering nothing.

Or, maybe I'm wrong, and the Senate will come up with something that can avoid a filibuster, and even pass from that chamber over to the House. I can't imagine that the Rethugs in the House will be enthusiastic about it. And Trump can veto anything, and that sets up a standard that is essentially impossible to meet, the overturning of a presidential veto.

If the shutdown made bad optics for us now, and that was one of the more important reasons for backing off, then those bad optics will still play out in three weeks. And we won't be able to cry on camera about all the nine million children who won't get CHIP.

I don't see how we get any sort of DACA deal out of this, but it remains to be seen.

[Demsrule86]

105. It was ChIP VS DACA...didn't you watch the coverage?

[OliverQ]

87. Hopefully this works out. People like Merkley and Feinstein disagree with you and

do not support this decision. And all I'm seeing on other forums, twitter, the news, etc. is how Dems caved, Schumer didn't get all that much, and nothing will improve in 3 weeks, but now he looks weak for trusting McConnell who has proven countless times he's evil and cannot be trusted.

This board may support the decision, but it's not playing well anywhere else. It's hurting Dems.

[angrychair]

89. Ok

It’s not that I don’t get your point, I do and I actually do hope you are right and I am wrong but for now here is my opinion:

1. All this does is push things back 3 weeks. The shutdown option is there again.
You really think there is political stomach for a 2 shutdowns within 4 weeks of each other in an election year?

2. CHIP is now off the table, and the GOP can not hold 9 million kids hostage again in 3 weeks. The GOP has lost a bargaining chip for February 8th. CHIP has been extended for 6 years.
The 6 year CHIP bill has existed for months but republicans sat on it to use it against Democrats as the deadline approached. The CBO states a 10 year CHIP bill was debt neutral. If we had voted for the 4 week CR than CHIP would have been off the table without a shutdown.

3. There is a very vocal commitment from McConnell for a DACA bill on the floor by February 8th. If it doesn't happen, the shutdown that occurs at that time gives the Dems all the leverage. And it will give the Dems all the commercials they need to run for '18 if McConnell reneges.
McConnell stated that the Senate could talk about it but he never promised a vote. They have been promising action on DACA and/or immigration for years and done nothing. They continue to use negative and xenophobic language and lies about DACA kids to this day. I am firmly of the opinion that republicans in red, gerrymandered districts could give two shits if DACA kids get deported or breaking any promises on immigration, that road is stacked with broken promises on immigration from republicans. It may cost republicans but as far as I’m concerned republicans past the “bat-shit crazy” line years ago.

[Demsrule86]

107. I don't think we will get DACA... and that is the truth. The GOP is not going to do it.

And there is nothing we can do about it as we have no leverage...it was amazing we got CHIP. We can only hope the GOP pays a price for their cruelty. And we can get out as individuals and fight this in the streets...hide Dreamers in our home if necessary.

[Gothmog]

93. From Ezra Klein

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

98. From Prof. Krugman

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[flying-skeleton]

110. BS

There is ZERO Commitment from the House to bring up ANY Senate DACA amendment for a vote.
So in effect McConnell's promise has no teeth.

[wiggs]

112. The GOP has a talent for taking bi-partisan or non-partisan policy positions (CHIP or DACA) and

moving them into the perceived 'dem' column....so that when negotiations come, dems end up in an asymmetrical fight.

it SHOULD be that dems are negotiating for progressive or far left positions (single payer, etc) in equal balance with the gop negotiating for far right positions (wall, muslim ban, etc). Or, more traditionally, dems are fighting for slightly center left positions and the gop is countering with slightly center-right policy. Those are both balanced and symmetrical negotiations.

INSTEAD...for the last 10 years dems are left fighting for centrist, populist, bipartisan policies that used to have wide support and in exchange goprs are getting far, far right concessions (tax cuts for rich, cuts to safety nets, the wall, extreme judges). We are fighting for the center, they are fighting for the far right. So a compromise is of course right-leaning, letting dems do the heavy lifting for just normalcy and fairness.

(also, why do pundits and dem leaders and journalists consistently fail to point out that the things dems fight for almost never benefit themselves and wealthy donors but rather protect workers, middle class, and the vulnerable? On the other hand, the gop fights for and shuts down government for their wealthy donors, including PUNCHING DOWN on the vulnerable consistently and harshly! Easy case to make!)

[hueymahl]

120. This times a thousand

We are getting played. Our leaders suck.

[Nitram]

113. The Dems played this perfectly.

The GOP is on the ropes.

[grantcart]

115. In sales or debates the best result is when you win but the other side is laughing on the way out

until they get in their car in the parking lot and someone says "we just got screwed".

This is like when somebody was prepared to spend $ 10 million on a contract and feels great when they agree to pay only $ 2 million but when they get in the car someone says "yeah but we agreed to pay $ 2 million a month."

The Republicans basically kicked the can down the road but next time its not going to be a can but a 50 gallon garbage can.

They got nothing and have to come back and do it again.

[BobTheSubgenius]

116. I agree! I think McConnell senses that their position is weaker than the paper tigers believe.

It sounds to me like some quick polling was done, and the GOP is taking much more of the blame than they had counted on.

I fully realize this could be completely wrong, but that's how I read it.

[c-ville rook]

117. The problem with the idea we won or did well is

Red State Democrats in Congress. The reason for the Democrats abandoning their position so quickly is it was felt they would take a beating if the Democrats in Red States were seen putting DACA ahead of the government, CHIP, and the military, etc.

Now with CHIP off the table the comparison perception becomes more stark.

Especially, as a debt ceiling battle looms. Democrats will not risk defaulting on the debt.... the GOP not so much.

We left center of the field open and they have taken it. We lost position and gained nothing substantive.

Time for a new plan as we have made it clear we will not play chicken here, Ted Cruz and his rag tag bunch held their position longer. I am not saying what they did was desirable -- but we folded too soon.

[JohnnyA]

118. or maybe we were rolled again...

We'll see. Keep an open mind, but the pattern has been that Dem politicians cave and Republican politicians win these fights. Plus Trump's political mandate is MTS (Make Them Suffer--libs, dark people, foreigners), so DACA is a perfect issue for him, and he may just be tweaking our chain.

[pecosbob]

119. Took the Tea Party House members all of 24 hours

before they started calling Dems terrorists.

“You don’t reward bad behavior. This is really bad behavior, shutting down the government over policy. It was something they roundly and appropriately condemned us for in 2013,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) told The Daily Beast. “I don’t think [House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)] should commit to a single thing. We didn’t shut down the government; they did. We’re not in the business of negotiating with terrorists, whether they’re political or otherwise.”

...........................

Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/house-republicans-already-scoffing-at-mcconnells-daca-promise-to-democrats

[harun]

121. McConnell could go ahead with a DACA vote in 5 minutes if he was really for it.

This will cost an enormous amount of Progressive support. Myself included.

Never negotiate with terrorists.

[c-ville rook]

123. Absolutely correct

but we did. And look the worse for it.