Monmouth Poll: Trump approval rating jumps 10 points

[oberliner]

President Trump’s job approval rating has spiked 10 points over the last month and Republicans have erased a double-digit deficit in the generic ballot for the House, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by Monmouth University, finds that 42 percent approve of the job Trump is doing, against 50 percent who say they disapprove. The same poll from December found Trump’s job approval at 32 percent, against 56 percent who said they disapproved.

The 32 percent approval rating Trump logged in the December survey was the lowest for any major poll since Trump was elected. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump is at 40.4 percent approval and 56.3 percent disapproval.

The jump in the Monmouth survey appears to be driven by voter attitudes toward the GOP’s tax reform overhaul.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/371635-monmouth-poll-trump-approval-rating-jumps-10-points

[bearsfootball516]

1. Not a huge surprise

The tax overhaul public backlash is over, and people are starting to see their paychecks increase, even if it is just marginally. That's going to increase the approval rating of both Trump and Republicans.

[oberliner]

3. Bad timing though as elections approach

Hopefully Congressional races will still go our way.

[lagomorph777]

21. Elections are 9 months away; plenty of time for Russiagate to blow up the GOP.

[oberliner]

57. That's true

Sometimes it seems to me like the elections are closer than they are. Maybe it's because they can't come soon enough!

[leftynyc]

22. Elections are 9 months away

when the tax cuts and all else will be swallowed up by donnie's latest lies or Mueller's investigation.

[oberliner]

55. Thanks for the reality check

Sometimes it feels like they are much closer than they actually are.

[leftynyc]

63. Anytime

I have to regularly talk my sister off the ledge so I'm usually pretty prepared.

[LanternWaste]

40. You think the American people have a nine month attention span? You're adorable.

You think the American people have a nine month attention span? You're adorable.

[oberliner]

54. You're right

It's more than a little crazy to think things won't change many many times over the next nine months. Appreciate the reality check!

[democratisphere]

2. Some people are easily swayed by little or nothing. Weird!

[oberliner]

14. It's crazy

And a little scary.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

26. In a lot of companies, this last pay period was the first where people got the lowered withholding

So many Americans can be swayed for $20 - $30

[mountain grammy]

29. Yes, scary how easily Americans are swayed.

[democratisphere]

31. And therefore we have drumpf.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. the vast normalization efforts are succeeding. Propaganda works.

[oberliner]

15. Indeed

The Fox spin machine is particularly powerful.

[democratisphere]

24. Before our very eyes.

Who ever thought we would be exposed to 24 X 7 propoganda.

[mountain grammy]

30. Yes, and it's terrifying.

[LonePirate]

5. I do not think tax reform is the reason. His racist dog whistles and sirens have been overwhelming.

Nothing shores up his base like his constant racism.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

27. A lot of people got an extra $20 - $30 in the past week or so due to the tax plan

The new withholding.

[LeftInTX]

50. He's been doing that all along...

The tax cuts are recent.

[NCDem777]

6. I give till the debt ceiling fight

[FBaggins]

9. What debt ceiling fight?

That’s already over... and Schumer gave away the ability to use it again.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

28. CBO has already signaled that, due to reduced tax revenue, another ceiling increase is needed

..and soon.

That is when Paul Ryan will announce we can no longer afford most of the social safety net.

[FBaggins]

35. Sure... the CR was only good for a few weeks

The problem is that Schumer already gave away the ability to use a shutdown again in this cycle. He can't come back and insist on a DACA fix to avoid a filibuster when he just admitted that Democrats weren't willing to shut down over DACA (specifically, the Democratic senators running this Fall in red states).

[mcar]

36. When did Schumer do that?

[FBaggins]

38. Did you notice that the government is no longer shut down?

He didn't leave himself any room to do it again... since he as much admitted that we didn't have enough support to do so for DACA.

[mcar]

47. The post you responded to was addressing the debt ceiling

not the budget shutdown. Two different things. Both coming at Rs over the next few weeks.

[FBaggins]

69. So?

The calculus is the same. Democrats would have to filibuster a bill that keeps the government from shutting down. They have to do it by claiming that something else (that republicans won’t compromise on) is SO important that we HAVE to use the leverage of the shutdown to fight for it (and thus shift the blame for the shutdown to Trump & Co). - or it just hurts our chances of taking back Congress.

That just happened a few short days ago... and we ended up admitting that many in our party didn’t agree and wouldn’t keep the govt shut down over DACA.

Is Schumer supposed to announce “Oh... here’s a new thing that is more important than keeping the government running!” ?? Something that red state dems are going to agree doesn’t lose them their seats?

[FBaggins]

7. The generic ballot is terrifying...

... but absent several confirming polls, this can be disregarded as an outlying datapoint.

[oberliner]

13. Agreed

Here's hoping this is just an outlier.

[Kingofalldems]

8. Wow, every day.

[CatWoman]

10. yup

[Kingofalldems]

11. Pretty sickening.

And tiresome.

[oberliner]

16. Beyond frustrating

One would think his approval would be in the low teens by now.

[oberliner]

12. I know - it's disturbing

No matter how many awful things Trump does - he is still able to maintain this base of support.

[Kingofalldems]

17. Right.

[leftynyc]

23. So did Nixon

who had a 29% approval the day before he resigned. No need to obsess over every single poll - especially this far out from the midterms.

[Sharpshooter007]

45. It was lower than that it was 24%.

Nearly 20 points than what Trump is here.

[leftynyc]

62. That was the day before he resigned

when the case for impeachment had already been made. FAR, FAR ahead of where Mueller currently is. I maintain I have zero inclination to obsess over every poll.

[noel1237]

18. He is being normalized and its very disturbing..

Independents seem to be swaying his way. Hoping this is temporary.

[oberliner]

19. Yep

I feel like at some point there needs to be a wake up call. But I sometimes fear it may never happen.

[still_one]

20. If this poll is not an outlier, it means the country is moving toward a racist, sexist ideology, and

doesn't paint a very optimistic picture for its future.

The poll included a total of 806 adults, where 401 were contacted on a landline, and 405 contacted on a cell phone.

Here are some statistics that I find interesting from this poll:

SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID
Republican 236 6.4%
Independent 309 5.6%
Democrat 250 6.2%
IDEOLOGY Liberal 192 7.1%
Moderate 306 5.6%
Conservative 281 5.9%
GENDER Male 411 4.8%
Female 395 4.9%
AGE 18-34 162 7.7%
35-54 295 5.7%
55+ 341 5.3%
RACE White non-Hispanic 568 4.1%
No degree 408 4.9%
4 year degree 387 5.0%
INCOME <$50K 266 6.0%
$50 to <100K 216 6.7%
$100K+ 242 6.3%
2016 VOTE BY
COUNTY
Trump 10+ pts 290 5.8%
Swing <10 pts 165 7.6%
Clinton 10+ pts 351 5.2%

Details can be viewed at the PDF at the end of the link:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_013118/

Democrats have not done too badly in the special elections that have occurred, and the results of those elections do not seem to correlate with this poll.

The poll also infers that the "tax cut" might account for the big jump in this poll, but if that is true, it sure isn't because they are noticing huge increases in their paychecks, because it isn't that much

[titaniumsalute]

33. For them to have a sample of more men than women is nuts

don't know if they are using weighting or not.

[still_one]

34. Based on their numbers it looks like the sampling is even split among gender. One stand out for me

was that moderates and conservatives were sampled significantly more than those who self-identified as liberals in this poll, and that moderates and conservative sampling was evenly split in this sampling, implies that there are more people with a conservative ideology than a progressive ideology in the country. If this sampling is to be believed, that is quite troubling

[Farmer-Rick]

60. This poll is conducted by a New Jersey college

New Jersey recently kicked out Chris Christie a Trump wana be. It might just be relief.

[Fred Sanders]

25. Outlier? Needs at least a few more polls to be much relevant at all.

Also posted at least twice yesterday.

[titaniumsalute]

32. First off this is ridiculous

If you look at poll aggregates yes Trump is up a little in approval. But it goes up and down. Tax cuts, holiday forgiveness/optimism, a decent economy. Not a surprise. But Monmouth is a huge outlier in both 32% and 42%. They also have a fairly low sample size which causes the data to bounce around.

[Freddie]

37. I'm the payroll person here

My (biweekly) check would have gone up $50 (!) except I set my withholding to take out the same as before. Of course many people will see the bigger check and thank the GOP. Arghh.
We got an email from the business office of another school district that was sent to every employee warning them that the bigger check might mean owing the IRS later and to consult their tax accountant. We are going to do the same.

[still_one]

39. That inference from this poll that his numbers increased because of the tax cut is nonsense. That

won’t be factored in any polls until people actually do their taxes

[Freddie]

41. The tax tables were changed

Most places effective 2/1 and there will be less federal tax withheld so people are seeing bigger paychecks now or will soon. I read that this was done "generously" on purpose so folks will thank the GOP. They won't find out they were under-withheld until after the election.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

43. It will be really sick

if the GOP manages to buy people's love and votes with 20 or 30 pieces of silver

[parkerMcDavis]

44. With holdings are a percentage of gross, if you gross

more, more taxes are withheld. How would the tax cut equal less of a refund?
Or am I wrong?

[lunasun]

56. 2108 tax preparation will be after the Nov '18 elections . Right now the instant cash looks tempting

to more than his base add their 401K etc. increases if they have one in the markets and independent voters will lean R
Plus the pro theology and righteous racism keep some in his fold no matter what taxes they pay

[roamer65]

53. Prepare for the death of a major reserve currency in about 2 years.

The US dollar.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

42. Did all of those Republicans jumping ship

do so prematurely? Record numbers of them are leaving Congress at the end of the term. Think that they'll all be replaced with other Republicans?

[Sharpshooter007]

46. His FiveThirtyEight approval is 39.6% and RCP approval 41.5%

It's definitely on the up.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

48. Likely an outlier - Rasmussen has new numbers out today

and they show little to no change.
And that's the most slanted rightwing pollster.

No one else is getting the Monmouth numbers yet, and, bear in mind, they had the Virginia governor's race a dead heat and we won by nine.

[Sharpshooter007]

49. Yougov came out and also had him at 44%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. I wonder where rcp gets that number.

Here is the poll:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/81kgdte5zw/econTabReport.pdf


Question 73

I know some polls report Adults, Registered Voters, and Likely Voters but all I see is Adults.

[underthematrix]

51. And my mother has risen from the dead

[Ryano42]

52. I am sure a few got a bit more positive with a couple bucks in their paystubs...

But as the embarrassment continues apace the trend towards 33% resumes.

GOTFV.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. I am sure some apolitical people were swayed by the tax cuts.

How many more self inflicted wounds will he have by November ?

[Stinky The Clown]

61. Always posting good news

[oberliner]

65. What do you mean?

This is pretty bleak, I think. Sadly, there hasn't been a whole lot of good news since the day Trump was elected.

[Awsi Dooger]

64. I've tried to warn about this inevitability many times

Always think big picture instead of relying on daily flimsy variables. It makes no sense for a newcomer president to retain approval ratings that low. There is a huge chunk of Americans who want to believe in a president they recently helped to elect, no matter how he acts. All it takes is one bit of favorable news or a stretch without an outrageous action and normalcy is not far away.

That's why we had to seize the low points. Those college campus registration drives needed to be every priority every day. We could have locked in new voters who would have been disgusted at Trump and thought of themselves as Democrats as soon as they filled out the form. That opportunity is mostly still available but a few percent would now either be not so committed or not so sure.

The problem is people like Rachel Maddow. She has no clue toward the big picture. None at all. She is stuck in today's latest development, or whatever old angle she is trying to decipher and repeat repeat repeat. That may be fine for an hour partisan theater per night but it lends itself to brutal evaluation of the country's mindset.

[Oneironaut]

66. Its like I keep saying, Im almost certain Trump will win in 2020, unless if we have

a massive voting effort. People who claim to hate him now will vote for him. These are the same people who, in 2016, waivered between voting for Trump and voting for Hillary based on the news of the day.

These same people will despise him next week, and then love him the week after. They have absolutely no clue about politics, and tend not to follow current events. Their votes can be won over by mere sound bites.

Others love the drama Trump creates. They think he’s hilarious, and like a reality TV show, they want more.

[mvd]

67. Really find it hard to believe he went up 10 points in a month

It may have been a little low before and overcorrected. All Presidents have bumps - even shithole ones like Trump. Should go down once the job losses (like Carrier, Sam's Club) sink in and people have used up their scraps given. And Mueller is going to drop a bombshell soon IMO.

[Bradical79]

68. Went from lowest to a bit above average. Nakes me skeptical.

I don't think it's a real 10 point swing. I think their last poll just had Trump too low. I'll give it a few days and check out fivethirtyeight's data.