Should we be worried

[Mojo2]

It seemed like a few weeks ago a major blue tsunami was coming in Nov, but the polls are shifting towards the GOP, at least the two that Politico posted. I'm not getting it, why the shift, is it the tax cuts? If so, it makes no sense, these cuts are hardly benefiting middle class americans. Is it the collusion, people are burnt out on hearing about it? What about this idea, when the next CR comes up, Schumer needs to shutdown the government until Trump implements the Russian sanctions. This would put Repubs in a dire strait, since these sanctions passed at a 95 percent clip.

[chuckstevens]

1. Way Too Far Out to Tell!

Also, most polls are inaccurate and bias in some way.

[rzemanfl]

2. Bookmarking for after I wash my socks. n/t

[Zoonart]

3. Just work harder.

This is not going to be easy in the midterms. There is a huge possibility that Russia will interfere in the midterms and that means one thing... TURNOUT.
So not hand-wringing.

[MBS]

7. " " " n/t

[bearsfootball516]

4. It's a combination of post-SOTU bump and the tax cuts kicking in , imo

[Kingofalldems]

5. Interesting post.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. There seems to a proliferation of these posts lately.

We must live in interesting times.

[GoCubsGo]

29. All of them hit-and-run, too. n/t

[Phoenix61]

6. I think people are just happy he hasn't

gotten us blown off the face of the planet.

[marble falls]

8. Work harder, work like your one vote is the one vote needed, work to instill this ....

thought on every possible voter's mind, we need to work like we're in a fight to the finish regardless of whose polls say what. Ignore the polls. They're snap shots, meanwhile events roll on. Polls don't predict the future, they describe a past.

[MichMary]

9. " these cuts are hardly benefiting middle class americans."

Not true. Lots of middle class Americans are seeing raises and bonuses. (I think Best Buy) is the latest. It's easy for multi- multi-millionaires to refer to a $1000 bonus as "crumbs," but the rest of us kind of like to get unexpected four-figure $$$.

Furthermore, last week notwithstanding, people have seen their 401ks and other investment plans grow. Lots of middle class people are looking forward to rosier retirements. Lots of middle class people are thinking of their kids' college funds with smiles on their faces.

Shutdowns haven't worked well for either party. Best not to do it again.

Also, much can change in the next 6 or 8 months. No one should be counting any chickens.

[HipChick]

11. Rosy red colored glasses..except you are missing all the layoffs, and companies closings..

If the economy tanks, my 401K not in cash, will tank right alongside it..$1000 bonus is crumbs after taxes....R/W BS talking points..

[MichMary]

14. My niece will be laid off in April

She has seen it coming for a couple of years. All the layoffs and closings certainly aren't a result of the tax cuts--more likely, poor management and poor performance going back years.

IF the economy tanks...that's a big IF. DH (who follows these things closely) told me this a.m. that some experts are predicting 4% growth this year. That's pretty amazing. EFven more conservative predictions are predicting nearly 3%.

Free $$$ is free $$$. Even after taxes, what you get is yours to keep--and the tax cuts mean you will keep more of it, BTW.

Politically, it might have been advantageous for Dems in Red districts to have supported this. People WILL notice their checks getting bigger, and will vote their wallets.

[HipChick]

15. Sorry about your niece but you are still missing the point..

Companies are using this tax cut to lay off workers...nothing to do with management or poor performance...I've been in corporate america for decades..Economy is on a cycle, it's not a matter of if, but when it tanks...
It's crumbs for poor folks...while the rich get richer on the backs of poor folks...as long as the masses keep believing what you are spouting, then the country deserves Trump..

[LuckyCharms]

16. +1 n/t

[MichMary]

20. The poor girl can't catch a break

She is in retail. Loves selling, and it would seem like a natural thing for her to get another, better job--selling real estate, or even cars. Trouble is, she doesn't have a license, so whatever she gets has to be something she can use public transportation to get to.

DH was in the paper industry. It was on a different business cycle. Might be a leading indicator. Their company is going great guns. They make boxes, and as long as e-business chugs along, the company will do great.

Goodness! The stack of boxes we have here is like a monument to Amazon!

I, for one, certainly hope the economy and the stock market don't tank.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. May I have a citation for your claim that GDP will grow by 4% in 2018 ?

Thank you in advance.

[MichMary]

22. Don't know where he read it

And he is out snowblowing right now, but I will ask him when he gets back in.

Winter. Bleh.

[MichMary]

31. I misunderstood

He's back in from snowblowing, and says that what he told me is that SOME analysts are predicting 4% growth in the GDP in the 2nd half of the year. Makes a difference. Anyway, the predictions are pretty good--as long as no one screws things up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Here are the predictions

https://www.google.com/search?q=gdp+growth+predictions+2018&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS724US724&oq=gdp&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j69i59j0l2.1427j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[RhodeIslandOne]

21. Most of this is off the strides of the Obama economy

Once Trump’s awful moves actually come into effect, the tide is gonna turn and we have to sell that Democrats need to be in office to prevent the massive cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and SS that will certainly be the GOP answer.

[MichMary]

23. When is that likely to happen? n/t

[democratisphere]

10. The Dems need a unified message and a single candidate supported

by ALL. Without it, we will be toast!

[LuckyCharms]

18. +1 n/t

[Hortensis]

25. We're either ants or toast? Come on, we're Democrats.

NEVER going to happen because it never could.

You may deplore that, but our vast diversity in every respect arises from our basic characters and reflects our greatest principles. It can't be set aside. It IS us.

[democratisphere]

30. redumbliCONs will line up behind "anything" they nominate as a candidate.

Then they will ALL line up at the voting booths and vote for that candidate. It is not enough to believe that YOU ARE RIGHT!

[Hortensis]

32. Agreeing to disagree during the primary and then uniting

behind one nominee is the unity we need.

If you want unity, BE the unity you want. That starts with acceptance of the rights of others to like the candidates they like instead of your choice.

[spanone]

12. No.

[lunatica]

19. .

[Mojo2]

24. 401

I believe you're wrong in regards to people seeing raises in their checks, some have, but what I have read is the vast majority of companies are using the savings to buy back stock. Trickle down economics has always been a failure and this is just a gunned up version of it. Even with raises, the cost of living is rising, so the raises are really not raises. 401ks are cyclical, the growth they have had can be wiped out in a few weeks, as they were under W..

[wasupaloopa]

26. Look the media needs a horse race for ratings. So it will always be that the Dems are in trouble,

the Dems should worry, the Dems lack enthusiasm, the Dems this the Dems that.

No poll is going to tell you the future.

[CentralMass]

27. It depends if Mueller has anything.

[Hortensis]

28. No. Newcomers to watching politics need to know

what's said above.

1. Many polls are badly-done garbage and not worth anyone's time.

2. Many are phonies produced solely to influence opinion. The more sensational the findings, the more likely you are to see them. The more money was paid to produce them, , the more likely you are to see them.

2. Even good polls are worthless for telling us what's happening at any point. Political scientists graph their results with what will be hundreds of others that they hope over time will tell them something significant.

3. Poll watching is bad for your health. Don't even think of it before next October.

[MontanaMama]

33. This. +1000

I would only add that polls were wrong wrong wrong right before the 2016 election and they haven't changed their techniques or practices. They don't deserve our trust.

[Hortensis]

35. Pollsters themselves agree emphatically with that last!

Their data gathering and analyses have not kept up with new conditions. Money is undoubtedly an issue in this.

Surely if they were doing their jobs even halfway decently, though, political analysts should have identified and started attempting to measure Russia's cyber influence long before it hit them like a huge, November 8, 2016 pie in the face.

[MontanaMama]

36. You know it Hortensis!!

As you said, watching polls is bad for your health. We have enough stress without that.

[old guy]

37. Thank you very much for saying this.

Hopefully, many people will read and understand.