seth abramson: The Shearer memo

[triron]

Link to tweet

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Much more here:

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Seth Abramson‏Verified account @SethAbramson

1/ Unlike Steele, Cody Shearer—a former journalist—doesn't have a background in espionage. Moreover, he's an avowed activist with known ties to the Clintons. For this reason, his research on Trump was originally viewed with skepticism by media and the FBI. Then something changed.
6:25 PM - 5 Feb 2018

New conversation
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

2/ As we consider the Shearer Memo, we must *avoid* the logic fallacy that Trump and Nunes would like us to fall into—what logicians call the "genetic fallacy." The genetic fallacy occurs when one bases conclusions solely on where information came from, not whether it's accurate.
14 replies 153 retweets 679 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

3/ Steele's an ex-MI6 Russia desk chief with the best sources in Russia a Western spy could develop—so there's reason to think his intel is largely accurate. That *doesn't* me that I or anyone else interested in his dossier don't think the FBI should seek to corroborate his work.
5 replies 100 retweets 526 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

4/ The same goes for Shearer—in reverse. There's every reason to think he had partisan motives in conducting oppo research on Trump, but so too does *every* such researcher even loosely connected to a political entity or party. The question always remains: is the intel accurate?
5 replies 90 retweets 544 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

5/ Inaccurate intel is easily dismissed by those who appear in it, as even if it's taken seriously it usually makes time, place, and other errors that let it be disproven with documents, alibis, and more. Yet Trump and Nunes are acting like they're *terrified* of Shearer's memo.
3 replies 115 retweets 507 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

6/ We know that the memo—which was first reported on by The Guardian—makes allegations regarding Trump's financial dealings and personal conduct. Had Trump released his tax returns, he'd have a much, much easier time responding to any allegations regarding his business dealings.
7 replies 136 retweets 561 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

7/ Instead, Trump refused to release his tax returns and refutes allegations about his business deals in one of three ways: (1) ignoring them; (2) using a blanket term (e.g., "hoax&quot to dismiss them without dealing with their particulars; or (3) trying to destroy their authors.
8 replies 132 retweets 563 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

8/ With Shearer, it seems Trump will select Option #3—trying to destroy Shearer and anyone associated with him, including a mere courier of his memo (Obama's Libya envoy—a former aide to potential 2020 presidential candidate John Kerry). And he's willing to risk a *lot* to do so.
7 replies 106 retweets 473 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

9/ Nunes, Trump's stooge in Congress and an ex-member of his presidential transition—therefore, a man who should be *nowhere near any aspect of the Trump-Russia probe*—lacks the jurisdiction to use the Intel Committee to oversee the State Department, but he's going to try anyway.
7 replies 124 retweets 541 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

10/ Note that Nunes' plan isn't to address any aspect of the Shearer Memo itself—the same trick he played with the Steele Dossier. Instead, he tries to smear the memo not just by smearing its author but by smearing anyone who ever looked at it, passed it on, or took it seriously.
6 replies 115 retweets 480 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
1h1 hour ago

11/ In this way, Trump and Nunes dismiss and discredit intelligence without ever asking *whether it's accurate*.

By implying that even handling this intelligence is something akin to a major federal felony, they leave the impression that *no one* could believe such allegations.
6 replies 110 retweets 452 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
58m58 minutes ago

12/ The problem Trump and Nunes keep running into is that very smart, professional people *keep believing these allegations*. It's not because they're all part of a big left-wing conspiracy—it's because they avoid the genetic fallacy and simply ask whether the intel's *accurate*.
5 replies 147 retweets 546 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
56m56 minutes ago

13/ Thus: "The Guardian has been told the FBI investigation is still assessing details in the memo and is pursuing intriguing leads. One source with knowledge of the inquiry said the fact the FBI is still working on it suggests investigators have taken an aspect of it seriously."
8 replies 99 retweets 465 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
54m54 minutes ago

14/ Federal investigators get a *lot* of tips. Most can be dismissed out-of-hand because they don't track with the intel investigators already have. New intel doesn't get pursued *unless it tracks with existing intel held by investigators and—as importantly—known to be accurate*.
2 replies 83 retweets 402 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
51m51 minutes ago

15/ So the FBI received the Shearer Memo in October 2016. And it's still being looked at by the FBI in *February 2018*. That's stunning. Apparently *16 months* of FBI investigators looking at the Memo have not yet managed to discredit it to the point at which it can be discarded.
8 replies 121 retweets 486 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
49m49 minutes ago

16/ And here's the best part: we *know* why the FBI is still looking at the Shearer Memo 16 months on. The reason? Though it was compiled via a wholly separate research process, and with different methods and sources, it makes *many of the same allegations as the Steele dossier*.
4 replies 154 retweets 545 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
48m48 minutes ago

17/ That's right: every indication is the Shearer Memo confirms many parts of the Steele Dossier—and in this way helps to deteriorate the fanciful Trump-Nunes argument that the FBI has never corroborated any part of Steele's research or had any reason to consider it corroborated.
4 replies 103 retweets 434 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
46m46 minutes ago

18/ What Nunes will hang his hat on—in trying to oversee someone at the State Department passing the Shearer Memo along—is that Jonathan Winer (Obama's Libya envoy) received the memo from Shearer and passed it on to Steele, who then passed it on to the FBI (at the FBI's request).
4 replies 57 retweets 290 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
44m44 minutes ago

19/ The FBI asked Steele to turn over any docs he had relevant to his work. At that time, he had the Shearer Memo—which had nothing to do (i.e., had in no way informed) his own research—so he passed it over and candidly said it confirmed his research but he couldn't vouch for it.
3 replies 65 retweets 310 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
43m43 minutes ago

20/ Almost certainly, Nunes—who *should* be asking why active FBI agents were leaking to Rudy Giuliani in October '16, by Giuliani's own admission on national television—will try to allege that Winer violated the Hatch Act by participating in political activity. And that's bogus.
6 replies 93 retweets 358 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
42m42 minutes ago

21/ It's bogus because the allegations in the Shearer Memo—like the allegations in the Steele Dossier—are *not* opposition research in the way we've traditionally understood it. Why? They suggest criminal conduct and the possibility Trump has been compromised by a foreign power.
5 replies 92 retweets 374 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
41m41 minutes ago

22/ Anyone passing on the Shearer Memo—or for that matter, the Steele Dossier—to the appropriate authorities so it can be investigated and corroborated by trained professionals is a *whistleblower*. Rudy's pals in the New York office of the FBI were partisan punks with an agenda.
3 replies 98 retweets 381 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
37m37 minutes ago

23/ If Winer knew Steele was working with the FBI—and he almost *certainly* knew Steele had partnered with them *before*—passing on Shearer's memo was ensuring that it got properly investigated. Meanwhile, the FBI leaks to Rudy comprised exclusively *knowingly false* information.
2 replies 53 retweets 276 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
35m35 minutes ago

24/ So, compare:

(1) A civilian passes on info he can't vouch for—but that looks serious—to the appropriate authorities. That's okay.

(2) The appropriate authorities pass on information they know to be false to a Trump advisor to aid a disinformation campaign. That's not okay.
4 replies 103 retweets 361 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
34m34 minutes ago

25/ Devin Nunes—a Trump agent in Congress—is going to investigate the former and not the latter.

That's *stunning*—particularly given that he *does* have oversight powers over the latter situation, and clearly does *not* have oversight powers over the former.
5 replies 76 retweets 347 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
32m32 minutes ago

26/ So here's what the Shearer memo says, per The Guardian (a top UK outlet): "[It] alleges Trump was compromised during a 2013 trip to Moscow that involved lewd acts in a five-star hotel. The Shearer memo cites an unnamed source within Russia’s FSB, the state security service."
9 replies 108 retweets 331 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
30m30 minutes ago

27/ This means the "salacious" allegation on pg. 1 of the Steele dossier has now been confirmed many, *many* times over.

Steele's sources say it's true. Shearer's sources say it's true. A Trump Org employee, Kata Sarka, and a Ritz Moscow guest can all confirm major parts of it.
10 replies 97 retweets 354 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
28m28 minutes ago

28/ The CIA and two EU intel agencies have confirmed it. Schiller confirms a major part of the story (that a Russian offered to send women to Trump's room—presumably the same ones seen in the lobby—arguing about going up to his room—by a Ritz Moscow guest and Trump Org employee).
5 replies 59 retweets 242 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
26m26 minutes ago

29/ Kata Sarka's story—told before the Steele dossier came out—confirms Trump is lying about how careful he was (as to his bedroom conduct) while in Moscow. And we know the best friend of the Russian who offered Trump prostitutes runs—wait for it—Moscow's largest online brothel.
10 replies 78 retweets 265 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
25m25 minutes ago

30/ We know from Stormy Daniels that Trump engages in extramarital sexual exploits without any care at all for whether they can be used to blackmail him in the future. And we know that—when blackmailed—he pays his blackmailers and generously. And we know Putin collects kompromat.
12 replies 99 retweets 316 likes
Seth Abramson
‏Verified account @SethAbramson
24m24 minutes ago

31/ So yes, as I've been saying since January 2017, the Trump sex tapes—beyond any reasonable doubt—exist. And Putin is holding them over Trump. But he may also be holding much more over Trump, as both Steele's and Shearer's research suggest Trump is involved in financial crimes.
23 replies 107 retweets 333 likes

Complete thread here at link: https://twitter.com/SethAbramson

[Gabi Hayes]

1. If this gets Rudy and his FBI co-conspirators indicted, I will be

[triron]

2. Hope this memo isn't mostly just about the more salacious aspects of Trump's activities.

[MontanaMama]

3. Agreed.

I don't care who he paid to pee on what...get him the hell out of our house.

[DURHAM D]

4. I wonder if the FBI has interviewed Trump's body man Keith Schiller.

He left abruptly in September of 2017. He knows everything.

[triron]

5. He says we're going to hear a lot more about this memo in the coming weeks...

Link to tweet

[Roland99]

6. K&R

[triron]

7. knr

[lagomorph777]

8. That's the worst possible format to use for a long-form report!

But having torturously sifted through it, I'll just say, when Mueller publishes Turd's tax returns, it's gonna be ugly.