Cook Political Changes Ratings Changes in 21 Districts
This week, we're shifting our ratings in 21 races towards Democrats. If anything, that still understates Democrats' potential in individual races. If Democrats win the national House vote by six points (as today's polls indicate), House control would be a coin flip. But according to our new ratings, if each party were to win an even number of Toss Up races, Democrats would only win 13 or 14 seats — ten shy of the 24 they need.
Although many Republicans are battle-tested and have been readying for a difficult cycle for months, more than a handful who have never experienced this kind of political climate (i.e., they were elected after 2008) look woefully underprepared. For example, freshman Rep. Ted Budd (NC-13) was outraised nearly three-to-one by a first-time Democratic candidate in a district that includes a lot of suburbs of Greensboro.
Budd isn't alone. As Democratic donors have engaged earlier and more heavily than in past cycles, there are 38 other Republicans who were outraised by at least one Democrat and, by our count, 23 GOP-held districts (including open seats) where Democrats held a cash-on-hand advantage heading into 2018.
If there's a silver lining for Republicans in the latest data, it's that Democrats haven't yet taken maximum advantage of the climate and there are still a few holes on their recruitment board. Of the 95 districts Trump either won by less than 15 points or lost in 2016, there were 34 where no Democrat had at least $100,000 in the bank and 48 where no Democrat had more than $250,000 at the end of 2017.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ratings-changes-21-districts
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