Rick Wilson: Here's why Paul Manafort doesn't flip and squeal

[MelissaB]

1/ Here's why Paul Manafort doesn't flip and squeal: there's a tiny % chance Trump pardons him for the Federal crimes. (Doesn't fix state charges that can hit in NY, VA, FL)

Link to tweet

2/ But if Manafort rolls and starts talking about the Trump campaign, Russia, Russian oligarchs and Vladimir Putin, there's close to a 100% he dies a painful death by polonium poisoning.

3/ The calculus is pretty stark. The immovable object of Manafort's fear has met the irresistible force of Mueller's investigation.

Link to tweet

4/ As a periodic reminder: there is no difference between what RU/RIS, ROC, and oligarchs can deploy against Manafort. It's all of a piece. A radioactive, deadly piece.

[bearsfootball516]

1. It's the million dollar question

Which do you fear more, a lifetime in jail, or knowing you'll be dead by the end of the year if you squeal.

[Miles Archer]

2. "We can get you with SOUP."

The classic Bill Murray line, spoken to Robert DeNiro in "Mad Dog & Glory."

Manafort has every reason to be more frightened of Russia than he is of Trump.

[BigmanPigman]

3. HMMM...life in Fed Prison

or death via Putin? He made his bed...the fucking, greedy traitor. Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

[lame54]

4. Then why isn't he dead yet?

[MelissaB]

7. From someone who knows more than I do...

Let me amp this. Killing an American in the USA would be a very rare thing for Moscow. But this is a very rare case.

Link to tweet

[briv1016]

23. If we had a president that would take retaliatory action against them, then yes.

Right now its open season.

[Rainbow Droid]

24. Right now it is, yes. But "right now" doesn't last forever.

[AJT]

5. Is there a case against 45 if Manafort doesn't flip?

[bearsfootball516]

6. Maybe...but Manafort probably provides a clear, direct link.

Without him, it gets a lot harder. That's why Mueller is trying so hard to flip him.

[pnwmom]

16. Probably is. But it might involve giving up "sources and methods"

that they'd rather not give up, if they can use people like Manafort and Gates instead.

[njhoneybadger]

8. Manafort also has two children.

[Hoyt]

9. Don't think the state charges will result in conviction because there will be at least one trump

believer on every jury, maybe a lot more than one.

[grantcart]

10. not in NYC

[smirkymonkey]

11. We all know what a disloyal, vindictive asshole Trump is.

He would leave him to rot in jail just because that's the kind of guy he is. Still, I suppose it beats being on Putin's hit list.

[MaryMagdaline]

12. Exactly my thoughts

He may die in prison, but at least it will be by natural causes

[yardwork]

13. Playing devil's advocate: why would Putin care?

Putin doesn't care about legal actions in the U.S.

Putin DOES care if he loses the White House and Congress. Can Mueller's investigation affect the election? I think Putin thinks he's got that under control.

I think that Manafort and Gates are holding out because they hope to beat all the charges and live to make a lot more money. They're all narcissists.

[pnwmom]

17. He would care if Manafort turned state's evidence against Trump. n/t

[yardwork]

18. Why? Behind Trump is Pence, and then Ryan.

[pnwmom]

19. Manafort pushed Pence on Trump, who wanted Chris Christie.

So I won't be surprised if Pence goes down, too.I think he knew about Flynn all along

In any case, neither Pence nor Paul Ryan is Svengali, unlike DT. If DT gets pushed out his fan club won't love the replacement.

[yardwork]

20. Putin wants the sanctions lifted, and he wants the U.S. weakened. That's all.

[Yavin4]

21. Putin wants to protect his other Russian assets

He doesn't care about Trump, but he does care about other Russians that Manafort knows. Manafort was planted in the Trump campaign to pay off his debts. Who planted him? That's who Putin wants to protect.

[Duppers]

14. K & R

[Hekate]

15. KnR

[Mr. Ected]

22. It's not what Manafort knows about Trump that bothers Putin

It's what he might tell investigators about his role in propping up Viktor Yanukovych that Putin would prefer to keep mum.

[lame54]

25. I'll ask it again...

Why isn't he dead yet?

If it's an inevitability it would be done by now

doesn't make sense to wait for him to talk - then strike

[FakeNoose]

27. Maybe he's got something on somebody

For one thing, the oligarchs trust Manafort with $millions and they want their money back. If they kill him they'll probably never see their money. But maybe he's playing the same kompromat game that Putin plays?

Kompromat wouldn't help him against the American judicial system but it might save him from an unsavory Putin-style demise. If he's got a "pee tape" or something similar he could threaten to have it released upon his death.

Just sayin'

[lame54]

28. Yeah, because I would think less of Manafort then

[EffieBlack]

26. Hed better get any pardon promise in writing, notarized, signed in blood in front of five witnesses

Trump isn’t particularly good with loyalty or keeping his promises.

[Satch59]

29. With all these Manafort indictments...

Mueller is putting pressure on him to flip but isn't it also setting up an obvious connection to this all if Trump pardons him? Seems pretty genius move by Mueller...

[Docreed2003]

30. This is the point in the movie

Where the suspect chomps down on a cyanide capsule

[lindysalsagal]

31. Putin will do the same to frump, so frump will bury manafort for a deal.

If Putin can get to manafort, he can get to frump, and the kids.