Bada Bing, Bada Boom......

[Laxman]

Have you ever done old school photography? Develop your own prints? If you have, you know what's it's like when you put that photographic paper into the pan of developer and that blank white paper starts to turn into a picture. Ghostly images begin to appear until eventually you have a clear (hopefully) picture of the subject the camera was aimed at. Well that process is happening before our eyes and the picture that is developing is an ugly one for Trump.

Of course my eyesight isn't what it used to be, but here are the outlines of what I think is developing in Mueller's darkroom... Manafort was a player in the affairs of Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs both politically and financially. He had a casual relationship with the law. He had a couple of things go wrong that placed him in a precarious position. His sugar daddy in Ukraine got himself run out of town and an investment scheme he was running for a nasty guy by the name of Oleg Deripaska in a telecommunications company went south at about the same time. Deripaska wanted his money back at the same time Manafort's main source of cash dried up.

In the midst of a desperate scramble to put enough cash together to avoid being cut up into little pieces, he has an epiphany. (I don't know, maybe in the shower one morning or maybe after a visit from an emissary from Russia). His creditor, Mr. Deripaska wants his money, but also want sanctions against Russian and against him personally lifted. The deal is, you get the sanctions lifted (which is worth billions to Deripaska) and we'll forget that you owe me money for that crummy cell phone company investment you got me into. Manafort, who probably enjoys being alive and in one piece, either comes up with the idea (or is given the idea) that getting close to Donald Trump and his (at the time) shambling campaign. The ultimate goal being to get U.S. policy to be far more friendly to Russian interests.

Here is where the picture gets ugly for Trump. At the time, nobody in their right mind would have thought that betting on Trump was a good investment. Yet a Russian oligarch was willing to take that bet.(Manafort was willing to bet his life on it!) In rather rapid succession after Manafort and Gates come onto the election scene in the U.S., Russian assistance is offered to Trump, the infamous Trump Tower meeting takes place, Russian bots go into action, Trump's fortunes sky rocket, he gets the nomination, the Republican platform is altered with regard to Russia...well you know the rest. The part that isn't clear is whether or not Trump became Russia's favorite during the primaries or if Trump was already their favorite (and was already compromised) and Manafort was dispatched to seal the deal-both electorally and to solidify the friendly relationship between Russian oligarchs and our own favorite Orange Oligarch.

I believe the latter is the most likely-and Manafort knows it. Trump was the Russian oligarchs' candidate for president and was afforded all sorts of illegal assistance to insure his election. What's more-AND THIS IS THE DAMNING PART- For Putin, this represented an opportunity to install a candidate who would weaken the U.S. Trump was Putin's candidate who was going shake the foundation of the United States in the same way the old Soviet Union had been disrupted back in the 80's. Trump would be the vessel by which Putin would deliver his revenge for the break-up (and to him, the embarrassment) of the U.S.S.R.. Piece together the reporting on Manafort's business dealings and David Cay Johnston's work on Trump, look at the actions Trump has taken since election and it suddenly all makes sense. And who knows what other damning details Mueller knows that knits this all together. Trump is going down. Bada bing, badda boom.

You can develop this picture yourself. Just put together a few good sources. Franklin Foer had an excellent article on this in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/emails-suggest-manafort-sought-approval-from-putin-ally-deripaska/541677/ He was interviewed on NPR's Fresh Air about this article:
https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581478324/paul-manafort-joined-the-trump-campaign-in-a-state-of-despair-and-desperation and finally Rachel Maddow did a real nice job of expalining a lot of this:

and David Cay Johnston has been making the rounds explaining his latest book and the installation of "termites" into the U.S. government by Trump:

[jodymarie aimee]

1. brilliant

thanks for posting...

[Shanti Mama]

2. Good summary. Thanks.

I vote the latter, too. Trump was already in the bag.

[Pachamama]

3. I am old school too....and yes, I see the picture becoming very clear....

I still want to know the role of some other players and I also think the entire operation of the Trump and Kushner empire and even the role of the Wilbur Ross and Prince siblings.....

They are all intertwined and when the full picture develops, it is going to be a terrifying truth about what has happened in this country and was done by these players....and with the full and happy participation and support by the GOP.....

[Laxman]

6. I Think It Might Actually Be Too Complex.....

to completely unravel. I think getting the most damaging material to our national interest is a primary goal. The remainder of this sordid mess is secondary.

[Pachamama]

8. I agree its very complex and extensive...but I believe that as each level is unraveled, it will lead

...to other levels and branches of this maze of crimes and complexity to be revealed and understood. I think that when things seem too complex, too big, most people shut off. Its one of the reasons why I love Rachel Maddox. She takes the subject and breaks it down and lays it out in a way that is easier for people to follow and then start seeing the dots and connecting them.

I believe that if Mueller is as good as he appears to be and they say he is and with the team he has, he is doing that in legal terms. And in the end, so much will be revealed and made clear, that even the things that seem so remote and too complex, will also be revealed and exposed and prosecuted.

I guess I am an optimist....I see this time being different....and the results will be mind blowing....

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

4. Wow, the David Cay Johnston interview has some insights

what we have suspected all along:

"Donald Trump knows that investigation will show that he is not a loyal American, he has been laundering money for the Russians for decades, that he has taken things of value to get him into the White House, which is a crime...."

[Pachamama]

5. +1000

Trump knows what is coming....

He has indeed been laundering money for mafia figures, for Russians in particular for decades.....

Trump knows the Russians got him into the White House....he knows that crimes have been committed....by him, his family...

[lindysalsagal]

7. Schiff on Rachel now, supporting this thesis.

It's at once simple and also tremendously complicated. But it's all there and it means the gop cannot go along with it.

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

9. I think Manafort is thinking about the implications of Treason

Following this line to it's ultimate conclusion leads to Manafort being a traitor. Not the way the term is tossed casually around in political circles, an actual honest to god traitor. That means he will be labeled in history. Think about it. You can probably rattle off the names of traitors throughout history. Manafort's name is going to be added to the list. That's got to be part of the reason he is hesitant to plead guilty.