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Tue Mar 27, 2018, 01:30 AM

Here's a crazy-ass prediction: Trumpy's gone in six weeks for six reasons.

Maybe I'm living in my own carefully designed bubble, but I think something's afoot that's going to take most of us by surprise. Trumpy will leave the White House much sooner than the paid pundits expect. Here are the reasons:

1. Avenatti and Daniels are screwing Trumpy big-time. I don't know who paired these two, but they'e a dynamite team. Avenatti is at the top of his game. Right now. And Daniels is seemingly pushing him to new heights. Both know Trumpy's huge weak spot and they're blowing it wide open.

2. The weak spot? Loss of media exposure. It castrates Trumpy and shrinks him to the size of a prune. This is the strategy to which Avenatti refers when he characterizes his moves as "three-dimensional chess". Trumpy has no way to keep himself in office without constantly owning the narrative and flooding the media with his presence. We all know that he's all flash and no substance, but we didn't calculate that someday or other, his ability to own the media with his personal narrative would collapse. And it has, right now. Without media manipulation, Trumpy can't have tantrums, he can't shout and point, he can't hold events or create controversies or distract from the Mueller investigation. He clearly can't govern, so that's out. What's left is a heap of hair and flesh gulping a diet Coke, plumped in front of a flat screen replaying segments of Fox and Friends. Oh. He's a "friend." And the TV sofa chattlings are likely his only friends.

3. Trumpy can't hire lawyers to defend against Mueller or Daniels/Avenatti. He can't replenish his departed staff. He's trying to bring back banished former staffers, but that's not happening because everyone to whom he talks has to hire an attorney. He may even fire Kelly and be his own Chief of Staff, which will be another rolling disaster. So now he has ONE defense attorney who's sadly overmatched by Mueller and his A team.

4. Trumpy is not following the Roy Cohn Commandment: When attacked, counterattack with ferocity, every time, with overwhelming force, and never admit a mistake. Trumpy is failing because he's not attacking Daniels/Avenatti in the Roy Cohn tradition. Of all the possible symptoms of his demise, this is perhaps the most serious. Daniels and Avenatti have taken away his Cohn-ness. Now Trumpy looks ineffective, weak, cowardly, and sniveling. Melania has symbolically left him to avoid imagining herself as the shamed and smitten wife. He's alone with few confidantes, if any.

5. Left to his own devices, without the media clutching at his every pause, and with an emptied White House staff, Trumpy is barely holding on to any semblance of an ability to govern. He has no agenda of his own, except to keep his base skittish and jumpy: for the next rally, the next bevy of accusations toward his usual suspects, for the next media spin. All of his distractions are losing their spark. He's coming face to face with his enemies: his ignorance, his low self-esteem, his impulsiveness, his narcissism, his cowardice, his lies,... and the Special Prosecutor. And for good measure, let's remember the AG of New York, lurking just behind Mueller.

6. Even Congressional Republicans, all of them Trumpy's equal in the cowardice department, will publicly talk about Trumpy's inability to manage a governing administration. Trumpy is besieged by investigations, lawsuits, a fleeing Administration staff, and an increasing flock of veteran losers as replacements. Trumpy was disillusioned with DiGenova and sent him packing. He'll likely do the same with TV terror John Bolton, whose bloodlust won't go down well with Trumpy's two scoops and chocolate cake. When hiring Bolton proves to be yet another big error, Trumpy's circus tent will begin to fold and he'll look for the most direct escape route out of DC. He'll neglect to feed the lions on the way out.

Pence, who's got his own problems with Flynn and giving him access to classified information, may not be heir to the throne when Trumpy leaves his golden toilet behind. But that's a discussion for another time.



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Reply Here's a crazy-ass prediction: Trumpy's gone in six weeks for six reasons. (Original post)
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 OP
Leghorn21 Mar 2018 #1
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #2
lame54 Mar 2018 #3
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #22
lame54 Mar 2018 #27
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #32
rusty quoin Mar 2018 #4
Midnight Writer Mar 2018 #5
SergeStorms Mar 2018 #11
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #24
njhoneybadger Mar 2018 #44
Wapsie B Mar 2018 #6
Poiuyt Mar 2018 #7
DFW Mar 2018 #8
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #34
DFW Mar 2018 #38
joet67 Mar 2018 #9
Farmer-Rick Mar 2018 #30
byronius Mar 2018 #10
Raine Mar 2018 #12
oberliner Mar 2018 #13
Cosmocat Mar 2018 #14
nitpicker Mar 2018 #15
Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #19
Cosmocat Mar 2018 #23
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #26
Cosmocat Mar 2018 #46
Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #47
TheBlackAdder Mar 2018 #16
cbdo2007 Mar 2018 #17
brooklynite Mar 2018 #25
exboyfil Mar 2018 #33
cbdo2007 Mar 2018 #41
Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #18
onenote Mar 2018 #20
Eyeball_Kid Mar 2018 #31
kentuck Mar 2018 #21
BSdetect Mar 2018 #28
Generic Brad Mar 2018 #29
kentuck Mar 2018 #35
awesomerwb1 Mar 2018 #36
kentuck Mar 2018 #37
awesomerwb1 Mar 2018 #40
Orsino Mar 2018 #39
Fiendish Thingy Mar 2018 #42
kysrsoze Mar 2018 #43
Javaman Mar 2018 #45
Atticus Mar 2018 #48

Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 02:07 AM

1. Crazy-ass as hell, Kid, and WELL DONE - I thank you kindly for taking the time to write and

post this, and, assuming there’s room, I shall join you in your bubble now - !

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Response to Leghorn21 (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 02:13 AM

2. Welcome.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 02:17 AM

3. Nothing less reliable than...

A Trump prediction

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Response to lame54 (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:13 AM

22. ... or long range forecasts... or this year's World Series winner.

But... some things that Trumpy does is entirely predictable: like his obsession with being at the top of the news pile, every day, in ANY way. And his commitment to one of the ephemeral principles of immorality: the end justifies the means. Trumpy is amazingly rigid in this regard. His oxygen feed comes from twitter and television. He works the two day and night, always controlling the news cycle with anything. It's not content that matters to him. It's the air time. But now, he's being choked off.

With the Daniels/Avenatti duo, with McDougal and Mueller all going full-throttle "targeting" Trumpy, he's overwhelmed and legally vulnerable. He can't get ahead of THEIR agenda. And now, he can't even react in a newsworthy way. In the media, he's being pummeled.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Reply #22)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:46 AM

27. Ok - you got 6 weeks - good luck

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Response to lame54 (Reply #27)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:58 AM

32. Were I to bet my food expenses on my ability to predict,

I'd be skin and bones. But maybe this prediction hits a cosmic sweet spot.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 02:27 AM

4. I hope you are right but I am, for a long time, done with predictions.

 

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 02:36 AM

5. To his people, Trump is now the old jock at the bar that once nailed the town beauty.

Do not for a second believe that the right(eous) wing don't know who Stormy Daniels is.

According to CNN polls, Trump's approval has jumped 7% in four weeks.

Even as the stock market dropped and daily scandals broke out.

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Response to Midnight Writer (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 04:35 AM

11. Calling Stormy Daniels the "Town Beauty".......

is probably the nicest thing that's ever been said about her.

I came from a town far removed from Ms. Daniels. Our "Town Beauty" was - thankfully - nothing like Stormy Daniels.

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Response to Midnight Writer (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:34 AM

24. The jump in approval ratings is one of the great mysteries of life.

So much so that it's fair to question the validity of the CNN poll itself. I wonder about how it's happened that the perennially accurate exit polling during elections have, since 2000, been rendered "inaccurate" by the vote tallies.

Were I to write a mystery tale about politics, I'd want to use an expanding effort for those in political and economic power to control and alter not only the voting apparatus, but the public polling apparatus as well. If the GOP can hack CNN polling results to skew public perception of Trumpy's approval ratings AND they can also control the vote tallies, then the end game has been reached and Potemkin Politics rules all of messaging and election results. Perhaps there's a reason that the GOP is so slow to address the integrity of the voting process, from the no-paper-trail machines to the computer programming for calculating a virtually nondetectable skewing of the numbers. Personally, that's enough fantasy to wake me up at 3am.

In other words, it's nearly impossible to believe the jump in approval ratings is a true reflection of the US citizens' overall perception. There are no previous events that could cause the jump.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Reply #24)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 11:18 AM

44. Not really _Kid you already identified it, tRump was dominating the news cycle more than ever

With five or six crazy things day after day. The natives loved it and responded to the
Pollsters with a big thumbs up for Spanky tRump. If he drops in the next round of polls pretty
Good chance this theory is right.

What we see as chaos they see as leadership

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 03:16 AM

6. I still think his stress level might do him in.

Here's a guy obviously out of his depth running even a medium-sized city let alone this country. Even in good times the job ages the inhabitants of the White House, although I must say Obama looks none the worse for wear. Donnie is way outta shape physically as well as mentally/psychologically no matter what some Dr's report says. Add in the Mueller investigation closing in and I think it may be too much for a guy of his fragile nature to handle. Stormy is just the icing on the cake.

In no way do I want the worst to happen. When all is said and done I want Mueller to lock Trump, Pence, et al up for life.

Having said that, for a guy who's beholden to Russia for much of his personal fortune I have to wonder if Putin forced Trump to run for the Presidency?

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 03:36 AM

7. Very well thought out, but I don't believe he'll be gone

He still has the support of Republicans. And if republicans in Congress might talk about trump's failings, they'll still back him every chance they get.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 03:46 AM

8. WOULD be nice, however..........

Evil has a stubborn staying power, and I am not as sanguine about Pence following him out the door. I think Pence would be happy as a clam in the role of grand Ayatollah, and is salivating at the chance.

Plus the powers that have profited from Trump's perverse presence in the first place will not peacefully and quietly give up their newly gained privileges to pollute and pillage unhindered. I doubt very much that they are willing to declare "Mission Accomplished," take their money, and go quietly into the night.

I fear we do not get off so easily.

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Response to DFW (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:01 AM

34. Pence has the prototypical look of an undertaker desperate for more bodies.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Reply #34)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:18 AM

38. Ingmar Bergman would have taught him Swedish if he had known him

Just so he could play the role of Death in "The Seventh Seal"

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 03:53 AM

9. Pence needs to go first. Really. nt

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Response to joet67 (Reply #9)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:54 AM

30. Pence is the strongest argument for the GOP to impeach now.

If they wait for Mueller's report and indictments, Pence maybe caught up in this Trump mess too, he maybe already caught up in it. If they impeach Trump now, they can claim they have cleaned house and now everything is hunky dory. Then they will still have Pence in charge and can end the Mueller investigation.

On the other hand Trump and most of the RepubliCONS have taken a lot of Russian money. So, their boss, Putin, may not want his favorite puppet pushed out. Though Pence would probably do what Putin wants too.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 04:00 AM

10. Yeah, I like that bubble.

I view the UK poisoning as magnetic moment of Force Shift. Something's changed.

Former President Walking.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 04:52 AM

12. President Pence

not anything I look forward to..

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 05:36 AM

13. Crazy, for sure

 

He isn't going anywhere.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 06:06 AM

14. His support is up 6 points in the last month

When are we going to let go of this notion that he's going to step down, or anything less than the Seal team 6 being sent into the White House house to drag him out, we'll get him out of office.
He's in there for at least three more years. The focus is this November 6th, and then November 2020.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 06:59 AM

15. +1

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 08:13 AM

19. You have to consider the margins of error...and we know how accurate polls are after 16. Here in

Ohio, my neighbor who had two Trump signs has turned against him big time. And he may cost thousands of auto jobs in Lordstown Ohio with the steel tariffs as he did not do anything to mitigate this for autos...who are now less competitive than their foreign competitors. Also GM does a big business in China. The Buick is the favorite car. The tariffs added $1000.00 per car. to the Cruze..cars don't have a huge profit margin. If this happens he will lose thousands of good paying auto jobs for what has become low paying shitty steel jobs in my area. And there is a huge Mom and Pop network that will fail as well. Shortly after I moved to Ohio, GM was in bankruptcy and the area was literally dead. There was no one at the mall just before Christmas. We couldn't afford much for our kids. Hubs was laid off, our stocks were in the toilet and we had a new mortgage. This entire area that went for Trump will fail as a result of his policies. Trump is so stupid it make my teeth ache. The damage he will do is incalculable. I think polling is not as accurate as it once was...many people don't answer the phone if they don't know the caller. Sampling size is also a factor.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #19)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:14 AM

23. It isnt only one poll

This 6 point bump is showing among most of the regular polls tracking approval rating.

We both agree 100 percent he is a unhinged lunatic and complete disaster. I also know SOME 45ers who have bailed.

I know MANY more that have not. I also know a LOT of people in the "middle" who have that "they are both the same" mindset where the tune things out, and who are not as burnt out over him as we are.

Either way, the point stands. For going on three years people thought he was a joke, that THIS was the incident that would do him in, he was going to drop out before he got elected, he will not make it into 2018, etc.

He is going nowhere before November 2018, and frankly, what I said when he came down the escalator stands - that while I hoped not, this country IS stupid enough to make him POTUS, and this country IS stupid enough to re-elect the POS.

Not saying it will happen, but it is ABSOLUTELY possible.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #23)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:43 AM

26. Trumpy's got a class A shit-show, and most people know it.

Most people, sooner or later, can smell the urine if they're being pissed on. And they now know that all Trumpy can do is piss on people. It's difficult for me to wrap my head around the idea that 40% of the voting population can't smell the piss. So I've got this notion in the back of my head that the polling outfits, all of whom use digital programming to collect information on internet-connected servers, are getting hacked. I've got no proof. All I've got is common sense.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Reply #26)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 04:15 PM

46. that is the rub

if this country had even first bit of common sense, he never would have gotten their nomination, much less elected POTUS, for starters, and the congress would not be run by republican asshats ...

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #23)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 04:39 PM

47. Well he is back at 39%.

I think the elections (special) or more telling ...he has lost popularity. Now we have a gerrymander so it will be tough...but if we vote like we never have before, we can take Congress and maybe the Senate. If he stays that makes it all the more imperative that we take the House. And if we get the Senate...no more judges.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:15 AM

16. Is Trump now hoping that having shittly representation might be grounds for an appeal?

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:21 AM

17. There has been an uptick recently in talk about Ryan and the line of succession.

Many in the media see what is happening and are already skipping past Trump talk, like they are anticipating the next focus to be on Ryan.

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Response to cbdo2007 (Reply #17)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:37 AM

25. Ryan has NOTHING to do with the line of succession...

There is NO realistic path under which Trump and Pence step down simultaneously.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #25)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:00 AM

33. I agree

Pence is not going anywhere. Given the difficulty in getting Trump removed, there is no way on this planet Pence's level of corruption will rise to that standard.

If Pence was President, Corker and Flake would not be retiring. He is in the wheel house for the GOP in both houses.

This is a problem for the Democrats. After Trump what does the party offer?

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #25)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:35 AM

41. Yep that's what you all keep saying...doesnt make it true.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 08:05 AM

18. I hope you are right...very well thought out argument ...excellent post.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 08:18 AM

20. If I had a nickel for every DU post predicting Trump's imminent departure

I'd be a wealthy person.

Here's my assessment of the likelihood Trump will be gone in six weeks: Zero.

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Response to onenote (Reply #20)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:55 AM

31. And I can attest to the fact that I'm NOT a wealthy person by noticing the lint in my pockets.

But, in the world of professional assessments, there's such a thing as "a convergence of related factors" that can give us a heads-up on possible outcomes. What I'm doing is just that, without claiming to be a latter-day Houdini.

If the trending of those factors remains consistent, the likelihood of an early resignation increases. Right now, those factors, as they converge, are sending the WH into a screaming panic. That's important.

But what's perhaps more important is breakfast, and I'm getting hungry.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 08:21 AM

21. It's time.

...for the Republican Party to have a serious discussion with their banner carrier.

He is a threat to our national security.

It's time for an exit strategy.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:53 AM

28. Nothing about his "approval" ratings jump convinces me.

There must be massive manipulation going on. Why would they ignore using their tools to get such results?

Talking about CA etc

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 09:53 AM

29. There's also reason #7

His prominent role in the largest criminal enterprise ever perpetrated on the American people is exposed and he and his party go down in epic flames.

A guy can dream.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:08 AM

35. I try to envision the perfect exit for him...

That would include a resignation and a continuation of the present Russia investigation. The investigation would not end just because he resigned, I would not think?

This is the biggest FBI investigation in history, in my opinion. They have known of these criminal enterprises by these international oligarchs for a long time.

He should leave and the investigation should continue.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:12 AM

36. I agree with some of the OP's points

But it will take a lot, lot more for twitler to voluntarily step down.

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Response to awesomerwb1 (Reply #36)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:13 AM

37. He feels better protected in the White House.

...than amongst the wolves outside its gates.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #37)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:23 AM

40. Yes, and the reps will have no problem

creating a massive distraction to save their asses.

They have no shame. Nothing is off the table with these mofos. Nothing.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:20 AM

39. Yes, a Trump that picks fights with everyone BUT Stormy Daniels...

...looks more and more like the weak tea he is, and emboldens accusers everywhere.

I've been saying Trump would quit for nearly three years now, and I keep being wrong. I think he can coast a while longer, and therefore he will, because all he knows how to do is coast.

He'll quit when the fun of being the big shot and his fear of facing criminal charges without the shield of the presidency are outweighed by the unfun of being expected to "work" for up to three hours a day, four days a week, plus the humiliation that is finally beginning to stick to him.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:45 AM

42. I think it's just as likely we'll be at war in six weeks

For the same reasons you stated in your OP.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:50 AM

43. 6 weeks I doubt. But I think you're dead-on with #2 and #5. The other 4 are ancillary

The sheer fact that he literally doesn't know what the hell he's doing, combined with his inability to hire anyone decent anymore and his complete inability to STFU, is going to be his downfall. It's a textbook exercise in self-castration and I can see this is indeed the beginning of the end for him.

If you don't know what you're doing and you can't hire administrative or legal staff to assist and defend you, you're toast.

Bye Felicia.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 12:08 PM

45. Here's a crazy-ass prediction: trump stays for 1 reason

he's a psychopath/narcissist.

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Response to Eyeball_Kid (Original post)

Tue Mar 27, 2018, 10:52 PM

48. So let it be written; so let it be done! nt

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