Ready for Some Good News?
"Nationwide, whites over the age of 60 with college degrees now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polling during the first three months of the year. During the same period in 2016, that same group favored Republicans for Congress by 10 percentage points."
These are the voters--be they Dems, Republicans, Indies--that we should welcome with open arms because they have seen the light and are willing to boot the crooks and traitors out of office, out of the body politic.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-healthcare-poll/exclusive-as-elections-near-many-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-party-idUSKBN1HG1I6
= new reply since forum marked as read
In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.
Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.
Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).
Trump won whites with a college degree 49% to 45%. In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%). Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John McCain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%).
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
So since the above is assuming all ages, you can see how the 60+ age group, being +10 GOP, appears to have skewed the total "white college-educated" average up to that +4 GOP.
So back of the envelope math would suggest that < 60 white college-educated group may have actually been -2 GOP (i.e., +2 DEM) so that the +10 from the > 60 group would average with them to get the above's +4 GOP.
So if that 60+ group (alone) is now +2, that means the "all ages" white-college educated group could potentially be +4 (assuming the under 60 crowd is still holding for Democrats).
because I saw the thread about the Faux Snooze graphic boo boo and that is where the OP article links to the video from Luntz's appearance during the boo boo, with the subject of his interview was his sounding the alarm to the GOP about the midterms!
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210465435
Regarding a potential shift of that demo, it would be unprecedented, at least looking over the past (at least) 60 years. I dug around and found this - it "almost" happened (and was predicted to happen by 538 but didn't happen sadly, but was close) -
Jul. 6, 2016 at 12:34 PM
Trump May Become The First Republican In 60 Years To Lose White College Graduates
By Harry Enten
Donald Trump does really well among white voters without a college degree. Indeed, he is on track to carry that group by a wider margin than Mitt Romney did over President Obama four years ago. But there’s another side to that coin: While Trump is outperforming your run-of-the-mill Republican among whites without a college degree, he’s underperforming among white voters with a college degree. In fact, he is on a track to lose white college graduates.
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At first glance, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Trump faces a deficit with whites with a college degree. He struggled with them tremendously compared to whites without a college degree during the GOP primary season, and you can easily imagine how his nativist appeals have less resonance among those who have more education.
On the other hand, Trump’s performance is downright shocking from a historical perspective. Romney won whites with a college degree by 6 percentage points over Obama, according to the American National Elections Studies. In fact, the American National Elections Studies shows Republicans carrying that group in every election from 1956 to 2012.(1)
What makes this year’s turn of events even more interesting is how Hillary Clinton is doing this well among whites with a college degree even as she isn’t blowing Trump out. Lyndon Johnson couldn’t carry whites with a college degree in 1964 when he was defeating Barry Goldwater by 23 percentage points overall. That is, there has been a big leftward shift among white voters with a college degree without the rest of the electorate following along.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-first-republican-in-60-years-to-lose-white-college-graduates/
What actually shows this too is this -
Juhem Navarro-Rivera,
09.27.2012
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However, in 1980, white voters with no college degrees accounted for 7-in-10 (70%) of the GOP vote, and nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters overall. In 2008, they represented half (50%) of the GOP vote, and only around 4-in-10 (39%) voters overall.
What accounts for this striking decline? The number of white voters with no college degree, once one of the most influential voting blocs in America, has been shrinking as a share of the electorate as the result of two important demographic shifts. The first is increasing education rates among whites. In 1980, just over one-quarter (28%) of white voters had a 4-year college degree. By 2008, nearly half (47%) had a 4-year college degree. The second demographic force is the racial diversification of the electorate. In 1980, just 1-in-10 (11%) voters were non-whites. By 2008, racial and ethnic minorities accounted for over one-quarter (26%) of all voters.
Non-white voters overwhelmingly favor Democratic candidates, while over the past fifteen years, white college-educated voters have shifted away from the GOP. These two changes have forced the GOP to increasingly rely on white voters with no college degrees. Figure 2 shows that while white voters with no college degrees have always been overrepresented as a share of GOP voters, a pattern that has only increased since 1996.
In 1996, when white voters with no college degrees comprised nearly half (46%) of the population, nearly half (49%) of votes for the GOP also came from white voters with no college degrees. By 2008, however, when white voters with no college degrees represented a substantially smaller slice of the electorate (39%), the GOP continued to receive half (50%) of its votes from this dwindling population.
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https://www.prri.org/spotlight/change-and-continuity-among-white-voters-with-no-college-degrees/
So what is happening, which is fascinating, is that the white college graduate percentage is growing and the white non-college graduate is shrinking, and as that happens over time, the overall white voter population voting less and less for the GOP.... WHICH IS GOOD. As they are getting more educated, they are slowly unlocking their minds, which have been exposed to a bit more diversity.
Of course knowing this (although we assumed they didn't but it's obvious now that they do), this is part of the reason why all the draconian measures that the GOP is using to solidify power with their ever-shrinking demographics by gerrymandering, Voter ID laws, and now outright influencing a subset of voters with fake news and hacking the vote.
Questioned government?
I'm part of that demographic. Time to get off the couch, roll up our sleeves and do what came natural 40 years ago.
Makes you feel younger, too
It's pretty mind-blowing after the Iraq debacle and the economic/housing collapse in 2007-2008 that anyone could give these suckers a 2nd chance. Not to mention the complete obstructionism during President Obama's tenure.
And then, there's the Trumpster. Come on!
I read a twitter thread this morning written by a self-proclaimed conservative, begging the Democratic Party to open the gates and welcome Republican crossover voters. He also said that he and his conservative colleagues recognize the GOP is irredeemable, that a complete burn down and rebuild is required and that a strong Democratic win in 2018 and 2020 is crucial for the country's security and health.
I think the message is, the inkling I've been getting recently from websites and twitter feeds is that it's not just Dems looking at this WH and cabal in absolute horror. Yes, the GOP inited this viper in but it's going to take all of us to stomp him hard and eventually fumigate the building.
But how people fell for this crap in the first place? A lot of tribalism and propaganda and critical thinking caps removed. My brother-in-law and his wife voted for Trump, both college educated but hard core Republicans. They think I'm a Commie when. in fact, I'm a liberal. My brother-in-law isn't really talking to my husband right now because of other matters but I would be curious to find out his opinion now. In the light of day
With voters "over the age of 60 with college degrees" is that we have influence over many other voters (kids, grandkids, co-workers, fellow retirees, etc.) and that our demographic in general garners a degree of respect - so hopefully people will listen to us. So, it's well worth the effort to nurture good relationships with this group.
In the past, Republicans have done a masterful job of looking at each demographic and designing an attack plan tailored for each - with a unique set of fears and "loves" for each one they attempt to control. And, their grand plan of dumbing-down our country continues every day. We must reverse that horrible process.
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