Trump's strategy: Become the bullet lodged too close to the spine.

[Tom Rinaldo]

In a nutshell Trump essentially has little faith in conventional legal strategies to defend himself against prosecution and/or impeachment. While he has not abandoned them entirely yet at this stage, when he faces a choice between speaking out "recklessly" directly to his base to rile them up to the maximum extent possible, or carefully choosing his words to limit his potential legal liability, he will go with the former over the latter.The strategy is not sheer madness on his part. It is an intentional extremely high stakes gamble, with the civil stability of our society as the ultimate stake.

Trump wants the political and "legal powers to be", those on both sides of the aisle as well as anyone who remains nonpartisan, to have greater fears over the unintended consequences of trying to remove him from office (on terms he does not agree to) than they do over the damage to our Democracy that failing to pursue all legal remedies to Trump's abuses of power and both political and personal corruption would result in. Trump is a bullet embedded in our body politic and he is doing everything possible to position himself at its spine. By that metaphor he wants to make doctors refuse to operate for fear of causing greater damage by doing so than he poses by letting him stay put where he is, at least for the rest of his first term.

Trump is laying the groundwork for potentially massive violent social unrest from an unhinged minority of Americans who have been fed an uninterrupted base diet of anger and fear for decades, boosted by Trumpoid steroids since he moved onto the center stage. Trump is weaponizing large elements of the Tea Party to fill in behind the fascists and white supremacists who are eager to become Trump's hard core shock troops. Trump is raising the specter of wide scale social unrest, if not literal civil war, should a move be made to actually depose him.

That is what Trump's full frontal attacks on the Justice system, the FBI, the intelligence community, and all non political appointees in government agencies (now re-branded as the "Deep State"" is about. That is what his unyielding attacks on the Free Press are about. That is what his demonetization of the opposition political Party (the Democrats) and high profile figures within it (think Hillary for starters) is now about. What started out more as a long shot strategy for winning the presidency (posing as the ultimate anti-establishment figure) has morphed into his long shot strategy for retaining it: "Take me down and I'll take down everything with me." It is his last resort leverage for saving his own skin.

It doesn't matter if the odds of Trump pulling this off are slim. The odds of his surviving through any other means are even slimmer. Trump is signalling that he's wearing a suicide vest and that he won't surrender before using it. The crazies who he is stoking everyday through his Twitter feed are his explosives. Trump wants our constitutional, legal and political systems to view him as a madman capable of doing anything, and he may well be, and that is his ultimate negotiating strategy. Trump has taken that stance with North Korea and Iran is likely next. To save his own hide he is taking that stance domestically also while asking, is America willing to call his bluff?

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. I'll just add this. It has already worked within the Republican Party n/t

[rzemanfl]

2. Most of Catastrophuck's people are ignorant, white trash dirtbags. If they take to the streets

they will get lost or the tennis balls will fall off the feet of their walkers. If they have guns they will end up shooting each other. They live from paycheck to paycheck, will run out of money for food and be shot as looters. They will fight among themselves. We should let them.

[enough]

3. That is a remarkably compelling image. I doubt that Trump himself comes anywhere near

this kind of analysis. But others around him may have. It seems unlikely that actual violent response would last very long as a strategy to protect him. But, a lot of things that seemed unlikely have come to pass.

[Garrett78]

4. The alternative explanation is that Trump is just an idiot who can't control his mouth.

But I think you may be right. And that "enough" is right in that Trump is being advised to employ this strategy of desperation. Either way, that's a well-written and thought-provoking post.

[kurtcagle]

5. While possible, I think it would backfire regardless

I'm not altogether sure that Trump's base is all that cohesive anymore. The ones that would take to the streets, primarily the hyper-nationalists, talk a big game and like to troll on the Internet when they can make themselves seem more threatening than they are, but their numbers are considerably smaller than most people realize.

The bigger question to me is whether they will go to the polls in November. I don't think they will. For the average person, the tax "payoff" was not very big, and there are quite a few Republican voters who are more concerned about the damage to the national deficit and the lack of anything in the way of meaningful shovel ready jobs after the GOP has controlled Congress and the White House for two years. They are worried about their Medicaid payments and their Disability checks, and they are worried about the tariffs. There's also a general phenomenon that mid-term elections after a change in party almost always put the opposition party back in power in Congress. Ryan has not delivered to the rank and file Republicans. This means that the Trump "faithful" is about 20% of the voting electorate (or maybe about 12% of the total voting age population.

I've been under the impression that Trump believes that he commands about 45% of the country. When he was first elected, he may have had enough clout to do something both audacious and fundamentally disruptive. What's more, he's notdelivered to politicians, and if anything his involvement in a political campaign is seen as a liability. The only ones that are still Trump loyalists are those politicians in deep red districts. Trump has lost the military, if he ever had them.

For all that people fear Pence becoming president (which was obviously another piece of insurance), I think that the FBI, CIA et al, are more likely to work with him than they are with Trump, especially if they are holding his leash (the threat of indictment in another sealed envelope). That weakens the threat of a constitutional crisis where the country ends up in the hands of the Speaker of the House because both president and vice president are in jail. It's one reason that I don't see Mueller necessarily pursuing charges against Pence - not because he's not guilty as hell, but because he represents an island of comparative stability in an otherwise chaotic landscape.

[Garrett78]

8. I agree and the OP seems to agree, as well, but what else does he have?

We can rule out Trump being diplomatic and decent. That leaves 2 options:

1) Just let the inevitable play out.

2) Don a suicide vest, as the OP put it, and try desperately to stir up enough fear that the "legal powers that be" will be dissuaded.

But, yes, those of his supporters who would carry out violence in his name are relatively few and far between (though they can still cause a lot of harm, especially in areas where his base of support is concentrated).

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Right. I don't think it would be a winning strategy in practice

The threat though may be the best strategy Trump has left for dealing with those who are both in a position to determine his fate and risk averse, which is how those who are most comfortable with and adjusted to the status quo often are. A lot of those type people sit in Congress.

But what might start out as a game of chicken could devolve into real conflict without that ever being the actual intention. Whatever controls there may be for channeling mass passions are seldom finely tuned. Trump is too narcissistic to care about what could happen if things spin out of control as a result of his brinkmanship.

I think he would be counting on making his opposition and the legal system cave on moving forcefully against him rather than risking massive social unrest breaking out from his supporters. I doubt Trump believes that a literal massive outbreak of social unrest could succeed in keeping him in power. Of course it wouldn't if it ever came to that, but I suspect he thinks if he raises the stakes high enough "responsible doctors will rule out surgery rather than risk severe complications."

I think Trump is guilty as sin and there is absolutely no way he can win and be vindicated through normal legal and constitutional channels. So what is he left with? Forcing politicians to reach a decision more favorable to him for reasons other than the question of guilt or innocence. I think that kind of blackmail strategy by Trump will ultimately fail also, but I predict a very rocky road before it finally does.

[kentuck]

10. I think he has successfully divided the political Parties where there can be no political resolution

There can be no impeachment or Amendment 25.

And he is consciously doing that as a strategy to save his own ass.

It is a form of blackmail. He is, in effect, holding our country hostage.

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. He at this point is more concerned with his personal ass than his presidency

He doesn't want jail time for him or his children and he doesn't want his Trump brand exposed as a criminal syndicate. Beyond that his narcissism won't allow him to become the first American president successfully impeached AND removed from office, not without a no holds barred fight anyway. Beyond that Trump might in some manner offer to not run again in return for allowing him to finish this term without facing prosecution, now or in the future. Maybe he would hand off the presidency to Pence during his last week in office in return for a pardon by Pence - something along those lines. Obviously this is speculation, but I agree with the bottom line you stated. If he doesn't get to sign off on his exit strategy he will welcome a complete constitutional crisis. That is Trump's bargaining chip, with the threat of Cliven Bundy type "uprisings" looming behind it.

Republicans are terrified of breaking ranks with Trump unless they are prepared to totally walk away from politics after doing so. Like you said, the legislative branch of government has become non functional as a check on Trump's executive power. Unless Democrats do the previously unthinkable and pick up at least three seats in the Senate in 2018, even with the playing field dramatically skewed against them, Trump has a reasonable chance of keeping enough Republicans in line there to prevent the super majority vote needed to remove hm from office. A three seat Democratic pick up in the Senate would mean holding onto all of our incumbent senators up for reelection in red states PLUS pickups of seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee PLUS either a second seat n Arizona if McCain vacates his seat OR a Senate win in Texas. An anti-Trump mandate of that magnitude might be needed to convince enough Senators to move against him.

[kentuck]

12. He is always preparing the next act in his narrative.

I am hoping we can make it thru the next election, to be honest.

[kentuck]

6. Yep.

[Hortensis]

7. :) Like the picture the title draws, but, no.

No one's above the law or the electorate, the wheels of our systems are grinding and, for all the worry about firing Mueller, they can't be stopped now. And, this one's the last thing we need.