What is really going on in N. Korea? Why is Un so pliant now?

[bitterross]

I don't, for a minute, credit 45 with pushing the two countries together. N Korean dictators don't work that way. Something else is going on in N Korea.

These overtures make me suspicious there is something seriously wrong/bad going on in his nuke program. I wouldn't be surprised to find that the majority of his scientists were in a radiation accident or something similarly bad that makes continuing the program almost impossible. The test facility collapsing must have caused a lot of damage we do not yet fully know about.

[Squinch]

1. His last nuclear test almost brought down the mountain that lies on top of their

nuclear test zone. If they perform any more tests, the mountain will come down and likely kill everyone in both Koreas and lots of folks in China.

So they won't be doing any more of that nuclear stuff.

OR you COULD believe that it is because trump made mean tweets.

Either way.

[hunter]

16. Open air nuclear testing and nuclear accidents didn't "kill everyone..."

... when the USA and USSR were doing it on a much larger scale.

People did of course die from fallout, but killing a small percentage of their civilian population doesn't seem like anything that would bother the North Korean leadership much.

[Squinch]

18. So I'll put you down as believing the tweets are responsible.

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2143878/north-korea-close-mountain-nuclear-test-site-after-collapse

The statement came after two separate groups of Chinese scientists confirmed last week that North Korea’s mountain nuclear test site had collapsed, putting China and other nearby nations at the risk of radioactive exposure.

The disintegration following five nuclear blasts may be why Kim declared on Friday that he would freeze the hermit state’s nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site, one researcher said.

The mountain’s collapse and the prospect of radioactive exposure in the aftermath, confirm a series of exclusive reports by the South China Morning Post on China’s fears that Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test caused a fallout leak.

[hunter]

19. It seems more likely China and Russia had some harsh words with them.

Trump is a blowhard.

[unblock]

2. i think it's "known" that they can't continue with their program

or at least that it's been set back years without building a new test site.

what's not known is if they need fairly immediate assistance.

[bitterross]

3. That's my point. If this is so "known" that's big news.

I'd think our media would be all over that story. Or, are they fawning over the actually fake news story that 45 pushed Un into this just for ratings?

Oh, guess I just answered my own question.

[octoberlib]

4. Well , the last time SK negotiated with NK , the only reason NK

came to the table was because SK paid them $500 billion. NK took the money and didn't do anything they'd agreed to do. I'm just wondering if Kim was bribed.

[Sinistrous]

5. Answer: Suspicion and skepticism.

Question: What are two things to apply in copious amounts when trying to analyze North Korea?

[Ernesto]

6. They have no more research capability

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-underground-nuclear-test-facility-is-damaged-experts-say-1524643948

[Voltaire2]

15. Er, no, they don't have an underground test site.

They continue to have the capability to produce weapons and to test delivery systems.

This is not an empty gesture. However many analysts note that Kim’s “denuclearization” is not a unilateral action- he means a bilateral state. The US would have to withdraw its nuclear force protection for South Korea. I

From North Korea’s perspective a 1-1 with the US president is a win regardless of the result of the talks. They are working on substantive results from their negotiations with South Korea, and they will likely succeed at that.

Normalization with the south cuts both ways. The North would get out of their embargoed economic disaster, but they will expose their people to the vibrant society in the south.

It is my opinion that the path Moon is taking to normalize relations is the best option, and the only one that has a chance of bringing a peaceful end to the last Stalinist regime.

[RockRaven]

7. As with Mr. Trump

you're making a big mistake if you believe anything Mr Kim says, or believe he considers himself bound by it.

[D23MIURG23]

21. It's encouraging to see peace talks between North and South Korea, but this bothers me too.

Given how doggedly North Korea has pursued nuclear technology, it's hard to imagine them making any serious concessions with respect to it. I don't know what Kim's goals are, and I don't trust that he isn't up to something.

[smirkymonkey]

8. I am highly suspicious of this whole deal.

I don't for a minute think that Trump had any positive influence. What is really going on here?

[DFW]

9. First of all, believe nothing

Second, remember the DPRK economy is flat on its ass. They can't afford expensive weapons programs. They CAN afford a few staged events for show if they result in economic advantages from the US and BRIC.

I'm sure KJU has a calculator.

[GoCubsGo]

10. I don't think he's as "pliant" as you believe him to be.

He didn't say he's ending his nuclear program, which is the narrative the Trumpsters are pushing. He said he's ending the testing, most likely because they already have nuclear capabilities. They are discontinuing testing for the same reason we are not testing--they no longer need to. They have what they set out to get. As for the rest of it, Kim is likely just playing Trump for the ignorant jackass that he is.

[ansible]

11. Trump's insane enough to start a war with NK

Kim isn't that stupid and along with the already mentioned setbacks to his nuclear program decided to go along a more peaceful route. Either way this ends, it's still preferable to a ground war that Trump's no doubt disappointed to not get.

[dogman]

12. Dennis Rodman?

The bridge from crazy to crazy seems reasonable to me.

[spooky3]

13. If anyone deserves a Nobel Prize it would be

Rodman over Trump.

[BSdetect]

14. He's been invited to join Putin and drumph as a member of their gang.

[oberliner]

17. His goal has always been to be taken seriously as a world leader and to meet with the US one-on-one

He appears to be saying and doing what he needs to in order to achieve those goals.

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. It's the sanctions

Resolution 2270, passed in March 2016 after the fourth nuclear test, further strengthened sanctions.[7] It banned the export of gold, vanadium, titanium, and rare earth metals. The export of coal and iron were also banned, with an exemption for transactions that were purely for "livelihood purposes".[8][1]

Resolution 2321, passed in November 2016, capped North Korea's coal exports and banned exports of copper, nickel, zinc, and silver.[9][10] In February 2017, a UN panel said that 116 of 193 member states had not yet submitted a report on their implementation of these sanctions, though China had.[11] Also in February 2017, China announced it would ban all imports of coal for the rest of the year.[12]

Resolution 2371, passed in August 2017, banned all exports of coal, iron, lead, and seafood. The resolution also imposed new restrictions on North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank and prohibited any increase in the number of North Koreans working in foreign countries.[13]

Resolution 2375, passed on 11 September 2017, limited North Korean crude oil and refined petroleum product imports, banned joint ventures, textile exports, natural gas condensate and liquid imports, and banned North Korean nationals from working abroad in other countries.[14]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_North_Korea

The country can't survive in the long term with sanctions at that level. They need oil for the military. Trump's rhetoric doesn't mean anything; it's the joint international sanctions.

[roamer65]

22. Sino-Russian hegemony.

They eventually want a united Korea, with US troops gone and it being a member of SCO.