The US and Afghanistan: can't win the war, can't stop it, can't leave The Guardian
May 1, 2018
By Simon Tisdale
As civilian casualties rise, and with no sign that recent American and Nato reinforcements are making a difference, an already dire security situation is growing more complex. Part of the problem is that Islamic State and the Taliban appear to be competing for the title of “most feared terrorists”. Isis claimed Monday’s twin explosions in Kabul, and last week’s attack on a voter registration centre that killed 60 people. But it was the Taliban who perpetrated two infamous atrocities in January. In one, an ambulance packed with explosives blew up, killing nearly 100 people. In the other, Kabul’s luxury Intercontinental hotel was turned into a battlefield.
Last week, the Taliban launched their 2018 spring offensive, threatening ever greater mayhem. According to US estimates, government forces control less than 60% of Afghanistan, with the remainder either contested or under the control of the insurgents.
In the absence of a holistic US strategy, Afghanistan risks becoming one large training ground and weapons testing site for the American armed forces. Trump is now reportedly reverting to his previous sceptical stance on the Afghan imbroglio. Rand Paul, a Republican senator known for isolationist views, said Trump agreed the US should forget “fight to win” and cut and run instead. “The president told me over and over again in general we’re getting the hell out of there,” Paul told the Washington Post this week. Trump’s apparent volte-face, channelling the Grand Old Duke of York, mirrors his recent, impulsive decision to pull US troops out of Syria.
More serious students of America’s Afghan dilemma believe that whatever Trump may say, the US is stuck there indefinitely. It is broadly accepted in Washington that the war cannot be “won” in the conventional sense. Nor can it be halted, given the refusal of the insurgents to discuss peace, its growing, Syria-like complexity and Trump’s disdain for diplomacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/01/the-us-and-afghanistan-cant-win-the-war-cant-stop-it-cant-leave?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
