Democrats Don't Have a Lock on Taking Back House

[applegrove]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/05/01/democrats-dont-have-a-lock-on-taking-back-house/

"SNIP.......


Harry Enten: “While Democrats are favored to take back the House, it’s by no means a certain proposition.”

“Right now, Democrats hold somewhere in the area of a seven-point lead in generic congressional ballot polling over the last two months. Based upon movement in the generic ballot in midterm campaigns from this point in the cycle to the election since 1938, we’d expect the margin to remain roughly the same on Election Day 2018 (Democrats +7).”

“A seven-point lead for the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot is far from a guarantee that they’d take back the House. In fact, my estimate based upon on how district lines are drawn suggest that Democrats would probably be a 50:50 proposition of gaining enough seats (23) to take back the House, if they won the national House vote by 7 percentage points.”


.......SNIP"

[tazkcmo]

1. Nothing's guaranteed

Not exactly going out on a limb with this declaration.

[oberliner]

2. What about the Senate?

[spanone]

3. trump, the media and the russians will be formidable foes

[saidsimplesimon]

4. Very sage advise

I am of the opinion that running negative is less desirable than running on the merits of your platform. Go Dems, give'em hell and GOTV

[ProudMNDemocrat]

5. Democrats will win on the issues.....

By reaching out to each voter, maintaining their humanity in the process, with facts/specifics on their side and not soundbites.

All Republicans have is fear, lies, and soundbites with no specifics.

Voters are finally paying attention because they see who the Republicans are and what they HAVE NOT accomplished.

[northremembers]

6. Probably Not

The discussion here is about abstract Democrats. Over the last 30 years when the democrats are ahead in the abstract they lose out when actual candidates are put forward. Personality based campaigns tend to favor conservatives because it's too easy to mudslinging a person. Ideology based campaigns are more likely to favor liberals, but so little ideology is out there for people to vote for. That's why we've lost so much over the last 30 years.

Look at the issues of this election cycle: Gun control, women in the workplace, fake news, possible war, and Trump/Russia. Maybe as an add on other Trump criminal probes but they are part of the same election footprint as Trump Russia.

Gun control isn't going to flip any voters. Women in the workplace has impacted both liberal and conservative figures. Liberals have been complaining (rightly) for years about too much spin in news, but now Trump has taken the issue to his side. Democrats have not put forward a policy to resolve the issues driving us to war. Impeaching Trump may sound great to us, but to many voters who might not like Trump and impeachment won't sound like a good use of government resources and we'll never have the votes for a conviction.

On the other side, the economy is doing fine on the surface. We all know a crash is coming, but it hasn't happened yet. That's strong motivation to not rock the boat. On foreign policy, anytime Trump needs a bump in the polls he can roll out a deal with Xi, Kim, or Putin and look like he's on top of things. Trump has alienated people, but his base is just as solid as it was in 2016.

If we win what are we going to do? Single payer health care? Renewable energy? Affordable cost of living? Race relations in law enforcement? Third world development? If we don't campaign on our issues we can't win on them. We also won't have a mandate to implement them if we do win.

I'm not saying it's too late or we are going to lose. I'm saying we should be putting together a platform of what we would do for America and the world if we take back Congress. That platform needs to be understood in every household, not just on our own websites. We are running out of time to build these issues up.