3 Predictions for What Mueller Will Do Next

[DonViejo]

As a former prosecutor, here’s where I think the special counsel is headed.

By NELSON W. CUNNINGHAM May 21, 2018

Robert Mueller’s investigation is now one year old. Watching the slow reveal of witnesses, search warrants, and subpoenas, the president’s supporters and his opponents may despair that it will never come to an end. But buckle your seatbelts and grab the oxygen masks. It’s about to get interesting. From my vantage point as a former federal prosecutor, Senate Judiciary aide and White House lawyer, the special counsel’s path forward seems very clear—almost inevitable. With the caveat that the future is of course uncertain, here are three predictions for the dramatic weeks ahead:

Mueller will likely wrap up his investigation this summer. It is an iron-clad principle that prosecutors should not take action that could influence an election. As George W. Bush’s attorney general, Michael Mukasey, told his prosecutors by written guidance in 2008, “Law enforcement officers and prosecutors may never select the timing of investigative steps or criminal charges for the purpose of affecting any election, or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.” The Hatch Act, he continued, “prohibits us from using our authority for the purpose of affecting election results.”

Mukasey’s declaration was such a clear and obvious declaration of principle that four years later, Obama’s Attorney General Eric Holder reissued it in virtually identical language. That guidance still stands.

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Mueller will interview Trump. Unless the president takes the Fifth. There is a debate, fomented by the president’s lawyers and by conservative legal commentators, over whether Trump will submit to an interview with Mueller’s team. But the legal precedent is crystal clear: He has no choice.

Presidents going back to Thomas Jefferson have submitted to court subpoenas. Presidents Grant, Ford, Carter and both Bushes provided testimony in criminal investigations or court matters. The Supreme Court in US v Nixon unanimously held that a president could not resist a criminal trial subpoena to turn over the Watergate tapes. In 1998, the Court ruled, again unanimously, in Clinton v. Jones that President Clinton could not claim immunity during his presidency from civil charges emerging from his private conduct. The Court left it to the District Court to determine when and how the president could be called to testify, but there was no question that he could, and he was.

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Paul Manafort will plead guilty in the coming weeks. The two indictments against former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, relating to his work for Ukrainian backers and his efforts to evade federal registration and to pay taxes on the proceeds of his work, are exceptionally strong. His junior partner in crime (and Trump’s deputy campaign manager) Rick Gates has already pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate. And just last week, Manafort’s former son-in-law (and former business partner), Jeffrey Yohai, pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate. There is little question, in prosecutors’ circles, that Manafort faces certain conviction and a long prison term.

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full article:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/05/21/3-predictions-for-what-mueller-will-do-next-218410

[unblock]

1. I disagree that not interfering with an election dictates wrapping up an investigation

Mueller will take as long as he needs, and will extend the investigation as he uncovers evidence of further crimes.

He'll avoid announcing indictments and such in the couple of months just prior to an election, sure, but he's not going to force an artificial close to the investigation to cater to the election cycle.