Outlier poll that showed GOP lead in the race for Congress abruptly shifts back to the Democrats

[workinclasszero]

Many conservatives cited the poll as a sign that the blue wave would hit a wall this fall, but now it has adjusted
TAYLOR LINK MAY 27, 2018 10:36PM (UTC)

A poll that helps survey the generic Congressional ballot no longer shows a dramatic lead for the GOP, a drastic shift that will crush conservatives looking for evidence of a feeble blue wave this upcoming November.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated last week that Republicans attained a five-point lead in the ballot, a drastic bump considering Democrats had a plus-three margin in the previous two polls. Right-wing pundits were absolutely giddy over the turn of events, as they shared the new poll on social media to their then-disheartened audience.

Link to tweet

That same poll Hannity was referencing released new numbers on Sunday, which now report a seven-point lead for Democrats.

Hannity was not alone in celebrating the previous shift in the generic Congressional ballot, which measures national support for either of the two major parties in the upcoming midterm elections. Supporters of the Republican Party have been whispering for months of a possible let down for Democrats this upcoming fall. They pointed to President Trump's tax cuts and his diplomacy abroad as victories for the administration and the party as a whole.

It turns out the supposed Republican resurgence was mostly due to the volatility of the Reuters/Ipsos poll.


https://www.salon.com/2018/05/27/outlier-poll-that-showed-gop-lead-in-the-race-for-congress-abruptly-shifts-back-to-the-democrats/

[vercetti2021]

1. I don't believe in polls at this point

Just GOTV!

[ananda]

18. Good thinking! GOTV

nt

[Wounded Bear]

20. Polls are indicators, at best...

the absolute worst thing we could do is despair over a "bad" one and give up. Momentary blips will always occur. This particular one seemed to go against all the trends we've been seeing all year, so I didn't pay it much heed.

The second worst thing we could do is see a "good" poll and sit back thinking our job is done.

Watch the polls all you want, but keep your eye on the prize and keep working to GOTV.

[SkatmanRoth]

2. Trump's insane handling of the North Korea talks are being noticed by voters

Having a Republican majority backing an insane Republican President is well - insane. Good to know the voters in the mid term elections are going to take measures to limit Trump's power.

[longship]

3. Termed by some some experts as a "goat rodeo".

Here, from earlier this week: https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100210653128
(It didn't get enough attention, especially the Urban Dictionary's definition of "goat rodeo".)
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Goat%20Rodeo

Goat Rodeo

A situation that is hopelessly fucked up. The worst of three stages of goat-ness. First is the Goat Rope, defined else where.

Then there is the utilitraian Goat Fuck. This normally requires a serious amount of work to unfuck.

Lastly, there is the Goat Rodeo. The worst of the three, it is beyond even profanity. It describes a situation that involves many individuals' screw ups, and implies that the fuck up is already well underway, meaning that there is no hope in stopping the mess.

Usually said with a defeated tone:

Ready to go to this Goat Rodeo?

It's gonna be terrible.

[Sancho]

7. Is a goat rodeo similar to a sheep rut?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=10646723

[calimary]

4. If gas prices keep rising, and health care costs increase as well,

as seems to be the case now, they’re gonna discover that their fabulous cure-all tax cut didn’t work as many miracles as they expected. That tax cut won’t be enough to offset the rising costs of living many in the pro-trump demographics will experience. Particularly when they start feeling the effects of losing so many of those health care protections and cost savings after the GOP started fucking with the Affordable Care Act.

Hey, trumpsters - YOU voted for this. Don’t try to blame the Democrats. It’s your own “team” that’s knifed you in the back and kicked you out into the cold. We tried to help you and then to warn you against what could be coming. And you actively and deliberately CHOSE not to listen.

Reap what you sow, I guess. Sad.

[workinclasszero]

5. Yup

Trump took full credit for all the good that the Obama administration left behind so now when he and the GOP's disastrous policies for the 99% are in full effect in the fall the pigs will get all the credit for that as well!

[sharedvalues]

6. Wait. Tax cut is $30,000 on a credit card for every American family

We should not cede ground on the tax cut.

The tax cut is three TRILLION put on a credit card (don’t believe the GOP inflated “offset” predictions that get t to $1.5 trillion).

That is the equivalent of a $30,000 car that every American household just put on a credit card. We all will have to pay that back.

I find a very effective approach with the GOP base is asking them about that $30,000 they just put on a credit card. Saying that they don’t get the car- GOP billionaires like the Koches get the car.

[calimary]

12. Indeed.

That tax cut the average individual or family thinks will be such a bonanza will NOT “offset” the resulting expenses to come, from the rest of the damage that trump ‘n’ comp have done. That schmuck and all his little pals just sold ‘em all a big fat lemon.

[sharedvalues]

16. Forced them to put $30k on a credit card, that they will have to pay back

How many people could financiall handle putting $30k on a credit card? Not a majority, that’s for sure.
But that’s just what the Koches and other GOP donors did to the Trump base.

[uponit7771]

21. +1, health Care cost are number one issue in many parts of country

[DownriverDem]

8. Makes you wonder

Generic polls don't seem reliable. They might show a trend, but it's not about any specific candidates. What I wonder about is how much damage does trump and the repubs have to do for folks to wake up? I'm seeing that since the economy (?) is doing well, the repubs will win. Really?

How many folks can say that the economy is doing well for them and their families?

[oberliner]

11. These polls mean exactly nothing

[justgamma]

9. "his diplomacy abroad " lololol n/t

[oberliner]

10. National polls are meaningless

Especially a "generic ballot" Congressional national poll.

[Hugin]

13. "...Republicans attained a five-point lead in the ballot"

The poll I saw only had slightly over a 1% lead. What poll are they talking about? If it was the Reuters/Ipsos poll it, was 2 points within the margin of error.

We're being played again.

[Tarc]

14. As long as President Cheetolini is out of office, the Bradley Effect is always in play

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect


Mayor Tom Bradley
The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

Conservatives embrace racism, but don't like admitting it.

[Prof.Higgins]

15. Ipaos was the worst pollster in the Ireland Referendum, underestimating

the actual margin of victory by 20%. Why would people pay any attention to a pollster with a record of such epic incompetence?

[DFW]

17. Didn't take it seriously then, not taking it seriously now. n/t

[EricMaundry]

19. I never believed that poll Hannity was crowing about

But I must admit it didn't make me cheerful.

[workinclasszero]

22. Speaking for myself and my wife

We can't wait to vote all dem in the fall and kick Dump's party in the nads!

We will love it SO.DAMN.MUCH!

I can't help but feel that all democrats everywhere do not feel the same regardless of what the latest poll says.

But I do like posting positive polls nonetheless LOL.