The Economist: Who's ahead in the mid-term race
AFTER two years of Republican government, Americans will go to the polls on November 6th to elect a new Congress. In addition to 35 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the lower chamber—the House of Representatives—are up for election. On current data our statistical model of the election gives the Democrats about a two-in-three chance of gaining a majority in the House. On average, we expect the Democrats to win a 9-seat majority.
The model simulates the election in all 435 seats, 10,000 times. Some of those simulations result in landslide victories, others in narrow ones. The results of these simulations, and the size of majorities each party might hope for, are shown above. Small majorities can lead to gridlocked Congresses, with party leaders struggling to rally their members for every vote. Comfortable margins give the majority party scope to be bolder.
Although every seat is up for election, the real battle for control of the House is fought in a much smaller array of seats. We rate 278 seats, about two-thirds of them, as “safe”—where one party has a better than 99% chance to win. Another 87 are rated as “solid” (with a 90-99% chance to win). That leaves the remaining 70 seats to determine which party will control the House.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/24/whos-ahead-in-the-mid-term-race
(this model will be updated daily)
