Shrinking map boosts Democrats in battle for the Senate

[DonViejo]

Republicans are still favored to keep their majority, but several Democratic incumbents in red states look likely to survive.

By BURGESS EVERETT and JAMES ARKIN 06/15/2018 05:03 AM EDT

The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks — a net plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November.

Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Trump carried in 2016 — Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are.

Democrats headed into the election cycle facing a nightmarish map, with 10 incumbents trying to hang on in states that Trump won. While the party is still mostly on defense, the narrower field improves an otherwise grim outlook. Winning the Senate remains a long shot, but is possible if everything breaks Democrats’ way: They need to net two seats to take back the majority, which means protecting essentially all of their incumbents.

“If you look at it … from 30,000 feet up, you’d say, ‘Oh they don’t have a chance.’ When we started there were 10 states we looked at to hold,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a recent interview. Now, he said, “there are only four that are really close.”

Opportunities to snag GOP-held seats are so scarce that Democrats could easily see multiple incumbents lose if the Trump backlash turns out to be weak. But for now, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) agrees the Senate is in play and has not been bullish on knocking off senators like Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), who have both opened up double-digit leads, according to polls released this week. So far, there are no suggestions Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) faces any kind of trouble.

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/15/senate-midterms-map-republicans-majority-democratic-incumbents-646183