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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Comical Notion That Pardoning Manafort Will "Require Him To Testify" or "Face State Charges"
If Manafort is pardoned, he is going to do one thing, and one thing only.
He will get picked up from the lock-up, he will get into a car, he will be taken to the airport, he will get on a private plane, and that plane is going direct to Russia.
From there, he will move in to his new digs on the Black Sea.
And that will be the end of that.
All this nonsense about "he'll have to testify" or "he can be indicted by a state" just cracks me up.
Do you think for ONE RED HOT SECOND that he's going to stick around for any of that?
Trump will spring him, and he will get out of the US.
Do you see Edward Snowden being "forced to testify" about anything in a US court?
Do you see Roman Polanski getting hauled back to California to face state charges?
Manafort has lived and worked abroad for years. There's nothing keeping him nailed down in this country. If you think he's going to get pardoned, walk out, and then stick around in the US to see what happens next, then dream on.
If he gets a pardon, he's leaving the country, and he's not coming back for any other legal proceedings whatsoever.
Gothmog
(152,036 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)He can get from the DC lockup to National Airport faster than a warrant can get from NY to VA.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(119,273 posts)So he'd have to have a minion or a Russian make a fake one for him.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Why would he need a passport to go to Russia as Putins guest?
A little booklet of paper isnt going to physically prevent him from getting onto a private plane in the US, landing in Russia, and walking off that plane if Russia takes him in.
Its amazing the magical powers people ascribe to passports. Yeah, if youre Joe Blow coming in on United, you need one to get your stamped visa and get in. No, if you have an invite from Putin for political asylum, its not like theres some clerk at the airport who is going to not let you in.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(119,273 posts)I wasn't thinking of it in terms of political asylum. And I think Putin is more likely to have him whacked than offer him a new home.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(119,273 posts)Phoenix61
(17,347 posts)You need one to get back in. If Manafort bolts he won't ever come back.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(119,273 posts)Phoenix61
(17,347 posts)He'll just be a loose end that needs to be snipped.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)lark
(23,769 posts)So, they hope that there's still a chance to get the truth even if he's pardonned. I think you have the sadder but way more realistic take.
exboyfil
(17,914 posts)Would a judge hold him in jail until the appeal of the preemptive pardon is heard? Does anyone have standing to appeal a preemptive pardon (Mueller)?
I think you are right that the most likely outcome is him kicking back in Russia. Then it would be incumbent upon us to make the linkages to the voters (assuming Congress doesn't do anything). You would think Pence would be damaged goods given how he was selected by Manafort, but probably not given how far we have fallen.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)hlthe2b
(105,026 posts)already brought. It is at least conceivable that one or more states have charges prepped for that eventuality. Double jeopardy can't attach (to the extent that it DOES apply) if not charged on the specific offense in Federal court, so if Mueller is being judicious in those charges he brings and leaving some in reserve, this is at least a possibility. it has been reported that Mueller was coordinating with Schneiderman before his dismissal. If so, the Acting AG may well have progressed on those plans.
NY is not the only jurisdiction that may be similarly preparing charges. Those states like NY, NJ, CT that have much experience prosecuting organized crime, have considerable experience and capabilities in producing indictments under seal. Those can be acted upon fairly quickly.
So, I'm not so sure he's going to make it on that plane to whichever "NO EXTRADITION" paradise he may have picked out. Not to mention the reported very real risks to his life from those oligarchs to whom he owes big $$$.
PJMcK
(22,543 posts)If Federal charges are brought against a defendant and they are acquitted at trial, New York State law does not allow the defendant to be tried again on similar State charges. It's something that NYS Attorney General Barbara Underwood has been urging the State Legislature to address before their summer recess.
Here's an article about this:
https://reason.com/blog/2018/06/01/ny-attorney-general-close-the-double-jeo
hlthe2b
(105,026 posts)NY can not ALREADY have sealed indictments for charges that Mueller has NOT yet brought and which have jurisdiction in NY courts. As mentioned, if Mueller was coordinating with Schneiderman prior to his dismissal and the current acting AG now to prepare charges for sealed indictments, double jeopardy doesn't even come into play.
That said, here's my post on the status of NY State Assembly A10422 and Senate Bill #8236 (the double jeopardy bills... Unfortunately, it is unlikely they will be acted upon by June 20, when the current session ends. https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210738355
KitSileya
(4,035 posts)A presidential pardon would have to happen before trial to have any value for Doofus.
PJMcK
(22,543 posts)Thanks for the perspective, jberryhill. I've heard the prosecutors refer to flight risk on several occasions and I was curious how Manafort could pull that off.
Let me ask you a question, though. If you were Robert Mueller, is there a backstop you could prepare to prevent his possible pardon from allowing him to escape from the country? How could that work?
hlthe2b
(105,026 posts)... I'm guessing that would complicate his plans to flee considerably...
To assume Manafort would be "safe" overseas--even in a country with no extradition to US would seem to be overlooking his very serious enemies:
e.g.,
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska sues Manafort and Gates in N.Y.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-oligarch-oleg-deripaska-sues-manafort-gates-ny-n836586
But, I have some faith that Mueller has planned ahead (accordingly) and no, I do not believe he is powerless in this scenario.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)And has no charges pending.
shanny
(6,709 posts)BUT they're reasonable men so I'm sure they will just overlook it.
Weren't you saying he would be outta here when they let him out on bail?
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)He had ankle monitors while out on bail.
I remember expressing some snark when, I believe it was Gates, wanted his area of travel broadened so he could take his kids on a historical tour of Boston.
I dunno. Maybe I suggested some other scenario at the time. Find me a link.
shanny
(6,709 posts)Doesn't matter; it is a side issue.
My point is, whatever extralegal possibilities there are for Manafort to escape our justice system, I doubt if he will test what kind of reception he will receive in Russia.
otoh, he's pretty stupid, as his alleged attempted witness tampering attests.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Manafort has been working for the Russians for years. He was wildly successful on their behalf and helped to deliver the Trump presidency. You do understand what hes been charged with, correct? The entire POINT of him being an unregistered foreign agent, and for lying about it, has been to advance Russian interests.
Like Snowden and Assange, he has been of great service to Russia
shanny
(6,709 posts)Manafort may have helped deliver tRump, but tRump hasn't delivered what the oligarchs wanted most: relief from sanctions. The oligarchs are like him: their own personal benefit is what is important.
For someone with a safe haven and hero's welcome awaiting him, Manafort has been going to great and stupid lengths to beat the rap here.
We'll see. Maybe.
madville
(7,447 posts)I thought he was a DC creature that lived in Virginia mostly?
What exactly would NY be able to charge him with is what I'm curious about. Everything I've seen him charged with was from years before the campaign so if he lived and worked in NY during his short campaign gig what are they alleging he did to break state law during that time?
hlthe2b
(105,026 posts)I think he may have just forfeited it, in fact, with his bail forfeiture.
madville
(7,447 posts)The last things I see are speculation that his property corporation may have committed a misdemeanor by illegally renting a condo on AirBnB. They usually levy some hefty fines for that, his daughter got hit with it as well according to reports.
Sanity Claws
(21,969 posts)The Carroll Gardens section of Brooklyn
hlthe2b
(105,026 posts)In the story, "Paul Manafort's Puzzling New York Real Estate Purchases," we investigated a condo purchased in Trump Tower, another one in SoHo and a brownstone in Carroll Gardens, Brooklyn.
At the time, we said, "Manafort's New York City transactions follow a pattern: Using shell companies, he purchased the homes in all-cash deals, then transferred the properties into his own name for no money and then took out hefty mortgages against them, according to property records."
https://www.npr.org/2017/11/01/561330641/what-manaforts-indictment-reveals-his-new-york-city-real-estate-deals
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)leftynyc
(26,060 posts)I think it's the entire floor.
PSPS
(14,025 posts)After she remanded Manafort, his attorneys requested a stay of the remanding so they could appeal. She denied their request because, "now that I've issued this order, the risk of flight has just multiplied substantially."
They probably had a plane warmed up and ready to take off before he even entered court today.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)One can always ask, I suppose.
PSPS
(14,025 posts)canetoad
(17,826 posts)She read out most of the Judge's comments.
Demsrule86
(70,660 posts)Cosmocat
(14,850 posts)He didn't do this earlier.
MineralMan
(147,030 posts)However, once he is out of the country, he may not survive long. He knows things that are inconvenient.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)If you're going to come up with conspiracy theories, don't make them lazy ones?
kentuck
(112,300 posts)After all, they have known each other since the 1980's.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,984 posts)Maybe he wouldn't care but it would be crushing for his party. Nobody but his most rabid fans would countenance it and there aren't enough of them to save the Republicans from electoral disaster.