Pollsters: Dems will take back House

[yallerdawg]

Technically, the pollsters were right in 2016 - Hillary won by 3 million votes.


Source: HILL.TV http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/393713-pollsters-dems-will-take-back-house

The average answer for the first-ever Poll of Pollsters was 23 seats, the show announced Friday.

That’s exactly the number that Democrats need to flip control of the chamber from Republicans.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group predicted it was a “better than even chance” that Democrats reclaim control of the House for the first time in eight years.

He predicted Democrats would net 23 seats.

Carly Cooperman, a partner at Schoen Consulting and a Democratic pollster, predicted a gain of 24 seats. “We see the generic vote is in the Democratic favor and a lot of the competitive seats are held by Republicans,” she said.

Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn predicted a gain of 28 seats for Democrats.

[SHRED]

1. But we cannot get complacent!

[dalton99a]

6. Absolutely not

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

2. And all the polls predicted Hillary would win.

I'm not letting down my guard.

[Freddie]

5. She won by 3M+ votes

But those votes weren't from the *right* voters. Maybe someday something can be done about that.
Good article in Bloomberg today speculating that if this country seems headed to permanent minority rule, the nation as we know it will be gone.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

7. I stand corrected. I think we all learned about the vagaries of political polling in 2016.

Also, we learned about not taking certain states for granted. And of course, there's the Electoral College. The goddamned Electoral College. The motherf**king Electoral College. Designed to ensure the slave states had their say in who was elected president, even though they had a minority of (white) voters, the end result is that we have Donald Trump in charge, a sociopathic megalomaniac who has learned that in addition to staying the bully and con-man he has always been, he has virtually unlimited power (and if he finds some way to neuter the courts, God help us!) over not only the country, but the world.

[0rganism]

3. much too close

if the GOP holds even 1 of the needed 23 we're fucked. we need an 8-pt generic ballot lead before i'll be even slightly reassured (Nate has us with ~6.3%, barely enough to make the difference, easy to buck with voter supression).

[AlexSFCA]

4. way too close way too early

whith news cycles of today, november seems like eternity