Nate Silver's take on Ocasio-Cortez's victory.

[Garrett78]

Looks like soon we’re wrapping up for the evening, so I’d like to reiterate one last time the not-so-hot take that primaries are extremely idiosyncratic and one ought to be cautious about global conclusions from local events. On the one hand, Ocasio-Cortez’s win was extremely impressive in New York 14 tonight against the establishment Democrat Joe Crowley; on the other hand, Chelsea Manning received only 6 percent of the vote in her challenge to establishment Democrat Ben Cardin in Maryland’s U.S. Senate primary. (Cardin won with 81 percent.)

I think pundits might do better to focus on the particular combination of attributes that Ocasio-Cortez brought to the table: young, Latina, from the community, media-savvy enough to draw a lot of coverage from lefty outlets (but not very much from mainstream outlets, which she may not have wanted anyway), ran some good ads, very openly and proudly a progressive Democratic socialist, but also running against an old white dude who, while mostly a party-line Democrat, was asleep at the wheel in a district that had undergone a lot of demographic change. And the race was maybe in an in-between zone whereas it was just competitive enough that her voters were excited and turned out, but also enough to the periphery of the radar enough that Crowley’s voters didn’t.

Which of those elements were most essential to her success? Which of those factors might be replicated elsewhere? It’s hard to say. My personal bias is to think being cut from the cloth of the district is pretty important, whereas candidates who are famous for other reasons, such as Cynthia Nixon (who hasn’t made up her deficit with Andrew Cuomo in the polls) aren’t going to resonate in the same way and won’t have the same underdog quality. But maybe the combination is pretty unique — and will be hard to replicate — given that she’s the first challenger to defeat a Democratic incumbent for the U.S. House since 2014.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-26-election-results/

[JI7]

1. Chelsea Manning was never a serious candidate. she was trolling and partying with O'Keefe and

probably still connected to Assange and the rest of that bunch.

[Garrett78]

4. Manning is certainly not the best example Silver could have used.

For the most part, establishment-supported candidates are dominating.

[RandySF]

2. My take

NY and MD are very blue states with very blue districts, giving residents the option to elect more prgressive options. Crowley failed to adjust to the changes in his district and paid a price. On the other hand, the moderate Jason Crow was nominated to challenge Mike Coffman in Colorado.

[Garrett78]

3. Agreed.

NY-14 is a safe district, and Ocasio-Cortez is very impressive.

Those who are winning Democratic primaries are those who are most likely to win in November. Some would argue that Jealous is a possible exception, but I figure he has as good a chance or better than Baker (Hogan is the favorite either way).

[Cha]

5. Good to know about Jason Crow in Colorado..

Thank you, RSF

[Cha]

6. Seems like a fair analysis to me.. Good on Cardin in Maryland!

Thanks, Garrett

[R B Garr]

7. She wants to abolish ICE and she is from a heavy Latino

district. This is a split from Bernie, who doesn’t want to abolish ICE. Looks like that was a timely position for her with the immigration issues.

I remember when Loretta Sanchez beat the old GOPer BoB Dornan years ago and there was a recount because no one believed a Latina could beat an established white male GOPer in conservative Orange County CA. The Latino neighborhood shifts pushed her over. This has been trending for awhile, as we all know.