Crowley's Defeat Is a Message to Democrats

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/06/27/crowleys-defeat-is-a-message-to-democrats/

Crowley’s Defeat Is a Message to Democrats
June 27, 2018 at 6:37 am EDT
By Taegan Goddard

David Wasserman: “The Tea Party waves of 2010 and 2014 didn’t topple many House GOP incumbents in primaries, but they did take out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Much in the same way, the hardcore Resistance took out Crowley but could help power Democrats to gains this fall.”

“Crowley’s exit begins the conversation about the next generation of House Democratic leadership anew. Less senior members likely to receive more attention include Reps. Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Joe Kennedy III (MA-04), Linda Sanchez (CA-38), Katherine Clark (MA-05), Seth Moulton (MA-06), Ruben Gallego (AZ-07) and others. And, any aspirants will need to be on good terms with the party’s increasingly dominant progressive base.”

[JI7]

1. No, it's a sign of demographic changes in the district

Also. Look at how many people voted.

[MrScorpio]

6. Bingo...

I don't know why it's so hard to realize that.

[padah513]

49. Yes

I turned on CNN for a second and they were talking about a split in the democratic party. The progressive wing against the establishment. I'm like huh? Look at the turnout! Don't get me wrong I'm glad she won of course, but you can already see people in the media trying to make this a wedge issue for our party when the bottom line is that Crowley lost because he didn't take campaigning serious and his opponent did.

[OnDoutside]

28. Yes, Rachel spoke with Kornacki about this last night. Not having the Primary on the same time as

the Governor's primary, hurt him in GOTV.

[Progressive dog]

40. Yes

Crowley's replacement is unlikely to get a leadership position in the Democratic caucus. Crowley is the only member of the Democratic house leadership who supports medicare for all.

[DownriverDem]

41. All I care about

is that Dems win in November. I'm not into the fight so many folks here think we have going. My focus is to beat the crap out of the repubs in November. Remember a candidate has to appeal to not just Dems, but independents too. They are already calling candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a Democratic Socialist. Politics is local, so maybe that won't matter in her district. It would matter nationally though.

[R B Garr]

60. Exactly! It is a sign of changing demographics which are inevitable

in some areas and has been going on for awhile.

Ocasia-Cortez says she is for abolishing ICE. Bernie is against abolishing ICE, presumably because of his claims about working class labor and jobs. It would be interesting to see Ocasia-Cortez debate Sanders on that issue.

She is for abolishing ICE in a heavily trending,, over 50%, Latino demographics now.

Someone needs to start attacking Republicans for a change.

[uponit7771]

2. A message to democrats to talk to their base

[Sherman A1]

5. Agreed

It is of vital importance that the candidates and the party represent the people of the various districts. When the representatives come together following the election 🗳, compromises can be worked out to find a mutually satisfactory pathway forward.

[Demsrule86]

9. This is not what I think many hope that ...the 'progressive message' can work everywhere.

it won't in red states or districts. We still need that big tent. That being said congrats to the winner.

[dembotoz]

36. Progressive not everywhere but yes in places

The homogenized dem method is not universal

[Demsrule86]

58. In blue state areas, we need tailor our message too,and those elected need to

fight for what their constituents want. But we have to realize while we may get the ACA with a public option and ultimately universal coverage...we may not get Medicare for all. With a big tent, nobody gets it all. Thus compromise is inevitable.

[DeminPennswoods]

37. Not quite

Two DSA women will be taking their places in the PA state house after ousting Pgh area centrist Dem cousins in separate primaries back in May. They are unopposed in Nov. Two DSA women won in Phila and at least 1 of them is unopposed.

At least 3, perhaps 4, DSA women will be joining the state house in Jan.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/387901-four-socialist-backed-candidates-win-pennsylvania-elections

[Demsrule86]

56. And ? Did you look at the districts?

[DeminPennswoods]

59. Yes

The Costas were centrist Dems who beforehand had been easily re-nominated and elected. Voters wanted changed. I'd describe the City of Pgh as center-left and Allegheny County overall as slightly less liberal. The Costas are exactly the kind of candidates who win here. DSA wins were considered big upsets locally.

[Demsrule86]

61. Two cousins...who have been called entitled...now what are the chances of holding the seat in

November? These are moderate districts...if we lose our shot at a house majority ...than this is a bad thing.

[DeminPennswoods]

62. Both candidates are unopposed in Nov

There was some earlier talk about one of the Costas running as a write-in, but both were gracious in defeat so Lee and Innamorata are running unopposed in Nov.

[Demsrule86]

63. Excellent...so it was a safe Democratic seat...Ok.

[DeminPennswoods]

65. Yes

nt

[stonecutter357]

3. It's called the Democratic Party !

[Demsrule86]

4. It is one election in a deep blue district...if it had happened in Mississippi..maybe it

would be significant. From what I have been told, this is a deep blue district. I hope so...would hate to lose the seat. We need a 50 state strategy in order to win back power. This election while gratifying on many levels doesn't help with our need to take back the house in order to stop Trump. It was a Democratic seat and it still is...we need to take Republican seats. And I still maintain, the money would be better spent in doing just that.

[NCTraveler]

8. Some serious propoganda is on display....

And it’s directed at those who gobble up propoganda for breakfast.

[Demsrule86]

10. hahah..I agree. I am for any Democrat winning anywhere...I have been told that this seat

is rock solid for us that pleases me...but it is not a 'message' to anyone. And we need to flip GOP seats in order to stop Trump.

[Demsrule86]

15. Did you read Trump's tweets taunting Crowley...of course he is pleased. Crowley was a thorn in his

side.

[NCTraveler]

17. I'm ten years Ocasio might be a thorn in Republicans side.

We can hope.

[Demsrule86]

22. I hope so too...however, ten years is ten years...the house is on fire.

[NCTraveler]

24. I hear you and said concern is real.

I see this as having a limited impact outside of a couple of election cycles where the bacon won’t be brought home to this district.

Many solid Democrats are ready to step into the leadership void this will leave. The leadership aspect is not linked to the district.

[Demsrule86]

64. This is true...we can only hope for the best and vote vote vote.

[IronLionZion]

23. It should only happen in deep blue districts

because then our party can keep the seat regardless. We wouldn't want a competitive primary in Mississippi.

[NCTraveler]

7. Solid win.

This piece is a train wreck. Looks like Fox News reporting. “I have some propoganda to get out and don’t care how foolish I look doing it.”

Holding the seat is what matters. Get a clue.

[Demsrule86]

12. We will hold the seat right? That is a given in this district...also to all out there Democrats will

support the nominee... to suggest otherwise is simple inaccurate and rather insulting.

[NCTraveler]

14. My exact thoughts.

It’s like a certain group just discovered electoral politics and they don’t know how to act.

[kentuck]

11. The message will be:

He got defeated by a "socialist".

[ehrnst]

13. That voters respond to Hillary's message...

From "Women's Rights are Human Rights" to "transition the United States to a 100 percent renewable energy system by 2035. It’s a goal hailed by environmentalists as the last best hope of staving off the most catastrophic effects of human-caused planetary warming,"

No wonder she won in a district that went for HRC in 2016.

[pnwmom]

16. Considering all the other Our Revolution people who lost, I'm not sure

how predictive her win is of anything. She seems a good fit for her district. Not ever Our Revolution person is.

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. Agreed. Some are, some aren't. She seems to be.

She also seems pretty dynamic as a person. And soon she can become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. She will be one to watch in coming years.

[octoberlib]

18. This is ridiculous. This is one race in one district. So far, more centrists have been

elected than Democratic Socialists.

[whathehell]

46. The key words being "so far"

Nothing "ridiculous" about it.

[brush]

54. All non-socialists Dems aren't centrists. There are progressive Dems...

who aren't with Our Revolution.

And do get me wrong, I'm not anti-socialist. I do take issue with some of the moves of Our Revolution.

[Orsino]

19. Well, so are the losses of certain Our Revolution candidates.

Yeah, there's change in the air, but I think mainly we're celebrating the victory of a kick-ass candidate who ran rings around an incumbent.

So glad to see a proud Democratic Socialist headed for office, and am hoping for more.

[GoCubsGo]

20. And, yet in my district, the Republican who ran as a Democrat beat the actual Democrat in a run-off.

I doubt she'll be able to beat Joe Wilson, anyway. But, there you are.

[Exotica]

29. Sean Carrigan won, Robertson the faux Dem lost

Carrigan wins Democratic nod in S Carolina 2nd District

https://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article213898964.html


http://amp.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article208440889.html

COLUMBIA, SC
A contentious race for the Democratic nomination for a S.C. congressional seat includes questions about whether two of the candidates really are Democrats.

In a 2016 Facebook post, Annabelle Robertson, one of three candidates in the 2nd District's June 12 Democratic primary, said she was a “lifelong member of the GOP.”

In other posts around the same time, Robertson called former Republican President Ronald Reagan an "icon" and said Republican Donald Trump was "just as corrupt and just as much of a liar" as then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

[GoCubsGo]

32. Thank you! My local fish wroap reported the opposite.

You made my day!

[Exotica]

34. Woot! Hope he beats that bellend Wilson.

[GoCubsGo]

35. The odds are against him.

But, for the first time ever, Wilson has been making robocalls for his re-election. I had to block him, it got so bad. So, there is hope for us yet!

[Exotica]

38. Any money they have to waste defending seats in ruby red seats

is less money to spend in swing districts.

[leftynyc]

21. Spare me the drama

It's ONE district that has changed demographically and Crowley took his primary win for granted. Not showing up for the debate is what killed his chances, not some mythical "message".

[ehrnst]

26. Show up for the debate if you want to win? White straight men aren't the future of the party?

Women of color are?

Many things here, but I don't know if this is a dramatic message, other than an Our Revolution candidate managed to win.

[beachbum bob]

27. don't put the horse before the cart....crowley's defeat is specific to HIS district and HIS district

is NOT the NORMAL democratic district in this country

[Freethinker65]

30. The message is that the media will try to spin anything to discourage Democrats

[Tarc]

31. You're getting a lot of naysayers this morning, sadly

Some people just don't learn the lesson.

[DeminPennswoods]

33. Josh Marshall has an edblog post on the demographics

of NY-14. I'm sure 20 years ago when Crowley first was elected, the area was a lot more ethnic white, Irish and Italian. Now it's a minority majority district with only 25% white. It's young, non-white with lots of immigrants. The district simply shifted under Crowley's feet to where Ocasio-Cortez was much more representative of it.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-shocker-but-not-a-surprise

[zipplewrath]

39. The Lesson

The lesson is that all politics are local. (Where I have heard that before?)
Crowley suffered the problem of many congressional leaders in their party. They can get "out of of touch" with their own districts. Happens on both sides of the aisle. You start pushing "compromises" that unfortunately hurt your own constituents. You convince your self that it is "for the good of the country" but can't get that across to your district. In his case it may have had more to do with the fact that his districts demographics were changing quickly.

I actually think that if there is any "national" implication here it is something that both parties might want to consider. There is a generational change going on. The "Old Guard", some times called "the establishment" is reaching their expiration date. I lived through this when Clinton came on the scene. He was viewed as the first presidential candidate that wasn't from WWII. (Bush senior was). I was surprised when both parties in the last presidential election were running some of the oldest candidates ever. I really think both parties need to consider that those days are quickly coming to an end. The Parkland kids are one of many signs. They are done with our old arguments from 30+ years ago. They have their own issues and they are ready to move them forward and probably will decide that this will require new leadership that is closer to their experience and background.

[samnsara]

45. i actually have no problem with establishment or old guard congressional leaders...

..there are sometime only the wisdom of a very seasoned professional can save us....NO learning curve...a repertoire of skills that only come from many battles..

[zipplewrath]

52. All politics are local

And it doesn't matter what you and I think. These are very local races.
Generally, the changing of the guard doesn't exactly happen overnight. However, this is often how it progresses. One or two leave for whatever reasons, and get replaced by more junior members. Don't be surprised if some of these new members start moving into lower level leadership/chairman roles earlier than normal.

[muntrv]

48. Exactly. See Conor Lamb (PA) and Doug Jones (AL).

[uponit7771]

57. +1, "The lesson is that all politics are local."

[BumRushDaShow]

66. "The lesson is that all politics are local. (Where I have heard that before?)"

Tip O'Neill.

[ck4829]

42. K&R

[samnsara]

43. wasnt a similiar message touted after the moderate dems won in some races...?

..I think its all local should be the battle cry.. some will be a little right of middle some very left of middle but in the end we need to support each other an defeat all the damned repugs

[still_one]

44. Attemps to extrapolate sweeping conclusions from one blue district election in NY represents one

thing, those New Yorkers in that 14th district.

With the implied conclusion that some Monday morning quarter backs are trying to make from one district, to other districts or states, should portend a very good sign for Cynthia Nixon. We will see how that turns out.

I am always amazed, though not surprised, how these supposed "great political analysts" seem to brush aside the previous special elections that have taken place thus far with the same sweeping extrapolations they are making from district 14, to other parts of the country.

Time of course will be the final arbitrator, but to draw a sweeping conclusion on one blue district, is such an over-simplification is laughable.

[Cary]

47. I have a message to Democrats too:

We have a Nazi in the White House.

My war is against Nazis. Whatever other squabbles or "revolutions" there may be to the extent I am a participant I am an unwilling one.

We have a Nazi in the White House. I am happy for this lady but she is not my representative. I hope she will represent her constituents well and I wish her all the best. I hope she fights Nazis. My rep is awesome. She fights Nazis.

[oberliner]

50. This analysis is 100 percent wrong

It's not "Taps for the whole Dem hierarchy" - that is preposterous.

This was a very specific win for a very specific district in NYC.

[lapucelle]

53. The lesson is to get out and vote.

Low turnout was a factor in Crowley's defeat. We'll have to work hard to keep that seat. The NY Post is already framing Trump's narrative.

?quality=90&strip=all&w=780

[oberliner]

55. We won't have to work hard to keep that seat

She will win and it won't be close.

Just important to remember that this win is very specific to this district.

[JustAnotherGen]

51. Only in that district

Her message would have fallen flat in the NJ 7th - or Gottheimer's NJ 5th.

And there's no way she would have won Connor Lambs district.

What I would say to everyone in the Democratic Party? We will lose if we run a NJ 7th candidate in her district. Those folks are probably as not keyed in on the property tax issues in our district, or the fracking issue/pipeline.

Vice Versa - guaranteed income won't work here. It simply won't.