The Republican donor class, the Republican base, Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress.

[Garrett78]

At this crazy time especially, I think the question of who Republicans in Congress are (most) beholden to is an interesting one.

1) Is it the Kochs, the Mercers, the NRA and so on?

2) Is it the base, the tens of millions who support Donald Trump no matter what?

Let's say Republicans in Congress are most beholden to the donor class.

3) If top Republicans in Congress (who are not retiring) start speaking out against Trump, would that signal that the donor class has determined that defending Trump has become untenable, that Trump no longer serves their short-term or long-term interests?

4) Even if that happens, though, and most Republicans in Congress (at the direction of the donor class) become anti-Trump, how would Trump's cult-like following respond?

Republicans (from Nixon and his Southern Strategy to Reagan's dog whistling to the Tea Party's racist backlash against Obama) have created this monster known as Trump and his base. Republicans in Congress and the donor class risk being eaten alive by the monster of their own making.

5a) How can the donor class and Republicans in Congress navigate that tightrope? 5b) Are Republicans in Congress and the donor class ultimately beholden to the Republican/Trump base?

And then there's Russia...

6a) Are Putin's interests and the interests of the donor class (and therefore, presumably, the interests of the Republicans in Congress) in complete alignment? 6b) Does Trump being beholden to Putin (due to money owed or kompromat, or both) cause any problems (aside from the potential for a blue wave in November) for the donor class and Republicans in Congress? 6c) If there is a blue wave in November, what are the next steps for Republicans in Congress and the donor class?

7a) If there isn't a blue wave in November (so frightening a prospect that I have a hard time typing it out), what next for the rest of us (especially if Russian interference and voter suppression are the primary reasons)? 7b) What if the legal and electoral systems are null and void?

Many questions. Have at it.

[Garrett78]

1. Anyone care to take a stab at answering any of my questions?

[suprcali]

2. The base

It's the republican base. As Stetmeyer and Navarro have suggested:

Ana Navarro
@ananavarro

If you’re an American, if you’re a Republican, and you’re not disgusted by Trump’s undermining of US Intellegence Agencies, his dismissal of Russia’s cyber-terrorism against our democratic institutions, and his deference to the murderous Russian leader, YOU ARE A CULT MEMBER.

4:17 PM · Jul 16, 2018

Here's the weak republican response in private.

[Garrett78]

4. What happens if that cult becomes a threat to the donor class in that Democrats take control?

[peggysue2]

3. Well, we know the Mercers and NRA were involved in . . .

this debacle. The Mercers through Bannon and Cambridge Analytica and the NRA surreptitiously (or so they thought) funneling Russian money to Trump's campaign. Mariia Butina was apparently one of the convenient conduits for dark money flooding the campaign from NRA coffers. She's been indicted and from what I've read faces up to 15 years if found guilty. I suspect the NRA will fight these allegations to the death, so I don't see them moving from the Trumpster camp. Unless Butina coughs up her guts, of course. Then, I guess, all bets are off.

The Mercers bet a lot on the Trumpster horse but their involvement and money in CA puts them at risk now. So, they'll stick to Trump and hopefully--if the gods are good--the whole crew will go down together.

As for the Koch's, I read they really do not like Trump or his policies. They got their tax give away but they may sit on a chunk of the big money. Then there's Adelson. He'll definitely stick because he's just as corrupt as the Donald and managed to facilitate our embassy move to Jerusalem. There are plenty of corporations that profited from the tax give away, so they'll stick unless things get so ugly and dirty that they cut their losses, try to pretend they never supported nor conveniently overlooked the Trumpster's craven message of bigotry and racism.

As for the base? They're already feeling the pain of lousy economic policy. They got zip out of the tax 'deform.' healthcare is skyrocketing and the opioid disaster has yet to be addressed. The stupid tariffs hit them directly. Yet cult-like they still support Trump. Though I really wonder how long that can last. Spite and anger just doesn't make it at the dinner table or pay the mortgage or buy shoes for the kids.

I think the Republicans are tipping their hats to their donors. They won't start howling until they lose their jobs in November.

Then and only then, the game table changes and we have a chance of putting things back on the rails.

If the Blue Wave doesn't happen? I don't wish to tempt fate by even sending that message into the Universe.

We're going to win in November. Because we must.

As for Putin? I really wonder what he'll do if he sees his Grand Scheme going south, the evidence growing that irrefutably points the finger squarely at him and his rich henchmen? The Trumpster will find out quickly, I think, that Putin will kick him to the curb, maybe release that compromising data everyone suspects he's gathered. Things could get very dicey, very quickly.

Buckle up, as they say. We're in for a rough ride.

[Garrett78]

6. Thanks for your reply. As for the Kochs...

...what are your thoughts on the theory that they want a nation run by oligarchs like Russia?

As for the base, they always get screwed by right wing economic policy. But they vote for their (perceived) cultural/social interests and blame Democrats for economic troubles. I don't see that changing, especially with right wing media being so prominent.

I hear you regarding November. We must win and win big.

[peggysue2]

13. Not trying to paint the Koch's as principled

They'll sway with their own self-interests. I don't think they like Trump personally; he makes all the richey-rich look and smell bad.

Do I think they could get on board with an oligarch system like Putin is running, along with the Mob? Sure, if it was on their own terms and they could put on appearances of being clean. Their father did a lot of business with the old Soviet Union, I understand. So, I don't think the 'Russian way of doing business' would necessarily turn them off.

In fact, I suspect the plan all along was to collapse the country and democratic institutions (the Rule of Law and an independent judiciary), then sell off resources pennies on the dollar. And doing to us what Putin believes we did to the former Soviet Union would be the sweetest revenge.

The system has worked for Putin. So far, that is. He's considered one of the richest men in the world. His wealth and that of his oligarch buddies was made off the back of his own people, and then all kinds of hinky stuff with the Mob.

Natural resources and blood money. It's been a winning combination. And those that disagreed? They didn't live long.

I'd read an article quite some time ago that our truly monied elite, the tippy top of the 1%ers had decided that democracy had outlived its usefulness and that they had a better way.

For them, of course. Not us.

Yeah, you're probably right about the Trumping die-hards. But I still can't fathom it.

The Art of the Con!

[Garrett78]

15. Yeah, I don't think the Kochs are wild about Trump. If for no other reason than the fact that...

...he's too overt in his racism and sexism. He never learned the art of the dog whistle. I think Republicans in Congress dislike him for the same reason, but they're between a rock and a hard place. Republicans in Congress (and the donor class) support the mission (undermining trust in government and any democratic institution) and can't alienate the base by speaking out against Trump, but I'm sure they wish that mission was being carried out by someone other than Trump.

[Yavin4]

5. It's the donor class hands down

The donor class backs Trump because they like his strong man tactics. Their goal is to create an American Putin, and Trump is their beta test.

[Garrett78]

7. And as for questions 3 through 7?

[Yavin4]

12. Irrelevant. Donor class controls the Republicans in congress, not the base. n/t

[Garrett78]

16. Not irrelevant at all. #3 onward is based on the assumption that Republicans in Congress...

...are beholden to the donor class. But questions then follow from that. As I wrote:

Let's say Republicans in Congress are most beholden to the donor class.

3) If top Republicans in Congress (who are not retiring) start speaking out against Trump, would that signal that the donor class has determined that defending Trump has become untenable, that Trump no longer serves their short-term or long-term interests?

4) Even if that happens, though, and most Republicans in Congress (at the direction of the donor class) become anti-Trump, how would Trump's cult-like following respond?

Republicans (from Nixon and his Southern Strategy to Reagan's dog whistling to the Tea Party's racist backlash against Obama) have created this monster known as Trump and his base. Republicans in Congress and the donor class risk being eaten alive by the monster of their own making.

5a) How can the donor class and Republicans in Congress navigate that tightrope? 5b) Are Republicans in Congress and the donor class ultimately beholden to the Republican/Trump base?

And then there's Russia...

6a) Are Putin's interests and the interests of the donor class (and therefore, presumably, the interests of the Republicans in Congress) in complete alignment? 6b) Does Trump being beholden to Putin (due to money owed or kompromat, or both) cause any problems (aside from the potential for a blue wave in November) for the donor class and Republicans in Congress? 6c) If there is a blue wave in November, what are the next steps for Republicans in Congress and the donor class?

[Volaris]

8. My (uninformed) opinion is that the Republican Base HATES the Republican Donor-Class,

And considers them coastal (socially) libutal elites, with very very few exceptions...
And the donor class considered the base useful dupes on a good day, and uneducated indentured-servitude serf labor on a bad.

I suspect the only thing that ties them together is the whiteness of the skins.

[Garrett78]

9. But there's an obvious disconnect, since the politicians and Tea Party they support...

...wouldn't exist without the donor class. The base swims in the swamp they claim has been drained.

[Volaris]

10. That the dupes can't figure out they've been 'organized' in this way,

Is why they're useful. They would still exist for sure, and they'd be just as pissed off, but no way would they be a viable electoral force in national-level politics without all that Koch-style dark money...and guys with the cash know it.

[Garrett78]

11. And those with the cash know fomenting and exploiting racism (including xenophobia) and sexism...

...is the only way to maintain a viable Republican Party. Absent that, there's no way enough people would support right wing economic policy, right wing environmental policy, right wing health care policy, and so on.

[Volaris]

14. Agreed..and at this point, the only 'medicine'..

That's likely to work is the kind we just have to force them to take; get elected and take the 'radical' path of:

Public medicare buy-in,
A 50-70% top tax rate on corporations,
Cutting the Pentagon's budget by at least 30%,
Publicly-funded elections,
Etc.,

and just make them live under it for long enough that they realize they not only won't die from all this dirty 'socialism', their lives can actually be better for it.

Is it 'radical'? It will certainly be called such by the people who know it ISNT, THAT YOU CAN COUNT ON.

[Garrett78]

17. Everyone having health care is radical (even extremist), but arming toddlers isn't.