Crowley could fairly easily beat Ocasio-Cortez in the general election

[Renew Deal]

It wouldn't surprise me if Crowley won reelection even by accident. I looked at old election results. It makes more sense to compare 2018 to 2014 because they are both "off year" elections.

In 2014, Crowley got 45,370 Democratic votes and almost 5,000 Working Family votes. There was no republican that year. The "conservative" got 1,047. This year there is a republican.

Ocasio-Cortez got 15,897 in the primary. That's around 57.5%. Still, Crowley could fairly easily break even with Democrats in the General Election and then pick up more than 50% of independents, he can probably pull it off. I think I'm being generous giving Ocasio 50%. She easily could end up under water.

Just for perspective, Crowley got 147,587 votes in 2016.

This district should continue to be polled as long as Crowley's name is on the ballot.

https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2014/general/2014Congress.pdf

https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2016/General/2016Congress.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-house-district-14-primary-election

[JI7]

1. many people just vote party so whoever is the dem nominee

has an advantage.

this is assuming there is no actuve campaigning by others.

[Hortensis]

42. :) True. Another advantage is that Crowley is not running.

Both kind of big ones.

Guessing she'd probably have to do worse than campaign against a couple of sitting Democratic congressmen in other districts to make Crowley think actively running against his own supposed district's Democratic voters'choice, accidental or otherwise, was appropriate.

The way more people could vote for him would be if Ocasio-Ortiz irritated them into it. She's probably just carried away by the story being pushed that she's a new national figure shaping the party, greatness calls and she needs to grab the moment.

If she doesn't very remarkably manage to blow a sure thing, though, she's headed straight for something like $174,000 a year and an express-elevator rise in her new career and social status. I'm guessing that, if nothing else, will bring her home to talk genuine local issues.

[Blue_true]

45. This may be an exception, I am guessing that it will be.

Last night, I thought about it, it is like the Senate race in Conneticutt a few years back. Voters will look for Crowley's name. I had hopes for Ocasio-Cortez, her pedigree looked nice, but then she fell under the Our Revolution spell and started doing things that she should have avoided. She also went off on Crowley and did not apologize when it looked like she was wrong, my guess is Crowley may have a change of heart and will stay in the General, I doubt that risks electing a republican.

[moriah]

2. That would only put him in the public spotlight as a "viable candidate" more.

AOC won the primary, and Crowley has said publicly he accepts that and doesn't want people to vote for him under the alternative party line.

The way he very well could take votes from her would be by such "polling" keeping him in mind, because he can't just decline it like a write-in nominee could.

Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot by dividing the vote even if we think it's a safe district.

[Blue_true]

47. Ocasio-Cortez' recent behavior may change his mind for him.

She was doing ok, then she fell in heavily with Our Revolution. I am sure that is rankling a lot of Dems that sat out the primary, but plan to vote in the General. I hope someone sane gets to her and convinces her that her current path is horribly ill advised.

[moriah]

65. Should have absolutely nothing to do with it. She won the primary fair and square.

Regardless of potentially ill-advised endorsement choices in other states, she's the Democratic Nominee for New York's 14th Congressional District.

If anything Lie-berman saying people should vote for him might make him bend his "election fraud" ethical concerns, or get an official OK from the Democratic Party to do whatever it takes to get off the WFP line.

[KCDebbie]

3. We've been crying about Dems coming out to vote in EVERY election since 2016...

and what happens? Most of the Dems stay home during a primary and Ocasio-Cortez wins a primary with a very small percentage of the Democratic vote...

[George II]

147. I think voters in New York were confused. This year there are two primaries (not sure if....

....they've done this before), with the most publicized primary being for Governor in September. I wouldn't be surprised if many voters were planning on voting for the 14th CD primary then, not three months earlier.

[mwooldri]

4. Any chance a Republican could win in a 3way race?

No point in letting this be a Con gain.

[oberliner]

15. No

Ocasio-Cortez will win and it won't be close.

[exboyfil]

26. Are you sure about that

I have images of Trump can't "win" in my mind.

[Renew Deal]

71. In 2016, Crowley got 147,587 votes.

The republican got 30,545. This is why I think it's plausible that Crowley hangs on (even accidentally) as long as his name is on the ballot.

[Blue_true]

48. No. It will come down to Cortez or Crowley if he changes his mind.

Her recent actions may cause him to, I am sure that he has people asking him to. People that sat out the primary get a second chance and she has built up some hard recent feelings.

[Renew Deal]

70. Almost no chance.

Half of Crowley's last two votes are more than enough to beat the entirety of the republican vote.

[George II]

148. Democrats outnumber republicans 6-1, so even if the Democratic votes are split 50/50.....

.....they will each be more than double the republican votes.

[Power 2 the People]

5. Working Families voters are usually more Progressive and aware than casual voters.

They'll vote for Ocasio-Cortez on the Democratic line and leave the WF line blank.

[Blue_true]

49. But democrats will likely fill out the Working Party line.

Ocasio-Cortez has made some really bad recent decisions. I am sure there are people asking Crowley to rescind his pledge not to run, and if he does, given recent events, few would blame him.

[womanofthehills]

136. Socialists Will Need to Be 10 Times Smarter Than Republicans to Get Taken Seriously in Washington

What’s interesting about Ornstein’s comment is that it implicitly assumes members of Congress are generally good at talking about economics in the first place. In fact, much of what passes for policy discussion on Capitol Hill, especially among conservatives, is a jambalaya of nonsense far more absurd and consequential than Ocasio-Cortez’s mistake. This, I think, speaks to a double standard that self-identified socialists will face in certain parts of Washington. Because they are new and considered fringey, they will have to be twice as smart as your typical Democrat and about 10 times smarter than your typical Republican to be taken seriously.

https://slate.com/business/2018/07/alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-gaffe-about-the-unemployment-rate-and-working-two-jobs-is-no-big-deal.html

[Renew Deal]

75. That's not really how things work

Don't assume that "progressive" voters have a problem with Crowley. The primary was a low turnout election. Most of these elections are about name recognition and there are many prior Crowley voters out there. That's what makes this situation interesting. He claims to not be running, so that helps her.

[shanny]

6. Now we're in favor of 3rd party candidates?

[SidDithers]

9. Hahahahahahaha....nt

Sid

[Iggo]

25. "Any Dem, anywhere" sure went out the window pretty quick.

[Squinch]

30. Do point to where any poster said they would not vote for the Democratic candidate.

[Iggo]

41. Do point to where I said that.

[Squinch]

114. When you said that "any Dem anywhere" has gone out the window.

That's what that means. If it means something else, do let us know.

[Squinch]

28. Again you with this canard. Show where anyone supported a third

party run.

[R B Garr]

38. Crowley is a Democrat. I've heard voters should

have lots of choices on the ballot. Has something changed?

[liberalnarb]

44. Crowley lost the Dem primary and his name will appear on the ballot for The Working Families Party.

A Third Party run.

[Blue_true]

52. But he is a proven democrat.

He can win and change back to Dem. That happens some. Bernie runs in the Dem primary in Vermont, win it, then run in the General free if a democrat.

[Voltaire2]

124. So you are promoting his third party run against the Democratic nominee?

[Blue_true]

129. Crowley is a democrat today and will be one after the election.

That is how things work for Crowley.

[Bettie]

134. They just don't like the woman

who won the primary, so they figure it's all good if he wins as a third party guy...because it is all about incumbents, not about Dems.

[Demsrule86]

87. It is a familiar name. He could win without campaigning...all this running to other states that

is going on may not sit well with the voters...who knows. She is the Democratic so I support her, but don't like her anymore.

[liberalnarb]

94. I still really like her but I do think all the state jumping is pre mature since

she hasn't been elected yet.

[Demsrule86]

132. I just don't like OR...and I fear we could lose the Delaware seat.

Winning is more important than ideology this year...the house is on fire...Is she going to be a team player or an OR player. I am concerned. I don't like Democratic primaries this years...waste of money and time to go after seats that won't flip Congress and we put seats at risk needlessly. We should be using the money to go after Republican seats.

[R B Garr]

123. This is an active strategy of Sanders, so it shouldn't be such a huge

problem for the Ocasio Cortez fans. Sanders' purposefully runs as a Democrat, then switches to Independent. Crowley is a Democrat and received an endorsement from this group, so it's not like it's an intentional thing such as Sanders does. It is circumstantial. Cortez is actively working against incumbent Democrats.

[Jim Lane]

144. And again you tell an outright lie about Bernie

You write, "Sanders' purposefully runs as a Democrat, then switches to Independent."

False. He has never appeared on the general-election ballot as the Democratic nominee and has never aspired to. When he runs in the Democratic primary, he makes it absolutely clear to everyone that, if he wins it, he will decline the nomination. There is no "switch" involved.

Your real problem is that the Democrats of Vermont inexplicably continue to reject all the screeching on DU about this supposed "issue". Deal with it.

[R B Garr]

146. And again you tell an outright lie to fabricate someone lying.

Are you having a bad day?

How utterly lame to type a post such as yours trying to inject some distractions and nonsense that is provably false on its face. We know that Sanders runs as a Democrat. We know that Sanders switches to Independent. Switch is exactly what it is. He switches parties. Your whole post is a waste of time. Your cutesy sidebars over the word "switch" and calling someone a liar is a new utterly inane low.

Isn't this about something else and your "screeching" about it?? (Screech is your word). I bet I know what you are really upset about....

[Blue_true]

51. He is a democrat. He wins as WFP, takes the seat and change back to Dem.

It happens, Bernie does it in Vermont to the Dems there. I am sure that if Crowley takes that route, nothing would change for him in the democratic caucus.

[Renew Deal]

77. Probably the most significant imapct is that he is a vote for Pelosi

Ocasio probably is not. Other than that, I'm not sure it matters much in the big picture.

[Demsrule86]

91. I don't like the OR connection, but I still support the Democrat.

[Renew Deal]

76. No. Has nothing to do with that.

[Voltaire2]

7. Or he could split the Democratic vote and get

a Republic elected. A far more likely scenario.

Are you supporting his third party run against the Democratic nominee?

[oberliner]

14. That is not a far more likely scenario

Last edited Wed Jul 18, 2018, 09:58 PM - Edit history (1)

This is a D district by a wide wide margin.

[Lee-Lee]

31. Maybe so but you split the D votes 32% and 32% and suddenly 33% wins

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a full push suddenly for the R here, coupled with a huge campaign to split the Democratic vote.

Because if they could pull it off it would only be for 2 years, but it would be a huge political stunt and victory.

If the roles were reversed and this was happening in a safe conservative district I would want the DNC throwing everything they had at it to take advantage of the disarray on the other side, especially if the possible winner was a fresh young fave for the other side who could end up being a huge political force down the road.

[Blue_true]

56. In the last General, the conservative got around 1600 votes.

The dem got something like 143,000. The math just does not back your claim. The republican would have to pull in a massive number of dem voters to even have a remote prayer of winning.

[Lee-Lee]

85. Jeff Sessions won his last race with 97% of the vote and now we hold it

I’m sure the GOP thought that was a safe seat as well, right until it wasn’t.

And it wasn’t because the GOP screwed up and the DNC was there ready to pounce on the disarray on the Republican side.

Considering seats safe when there are cracks that appear is how you lose what should have been an easy win.

Ocasio-Cortez is a newcomer with little political history and little vetting. All it would take is one skeleton in her closet of any sort to come out to siphon votes away. Split the vote, the GOP dumps
loads of cash into diving the vote and pushing their guy, and it suddenly comes into play.

And just like people say it can’t happen, the GOP probably said no Democrat would ever win a seat they won with 97% of the vote just a few years before.

[Renew Deal]

79. A republican has a hard time breaking 20% in this district.

[Lee-Lee]

90. Democrats couldn't break 5% against Jeff Sessions and now we have the seat

As I said above, when you start thinking seats are so safe you don’t need to try all it takes is your enemy to take advantage of the cracks you present.

We fail to consider the risks here at our own peril.

[Renew Deal]

92. The last time Sessions ran against a Democrat, the Democrat got 36.5%

https://ballotpedia.org/Jeff_Sessions

[RhodeIslandOne]

142. Jeff Sessions had no actual opposition in his last race

They were all write-ins.

[oberliner]

138. There is no scenario that will result in a Republican winning this seat

It isn't going to happen.

[Voltaire2]

120. So are you supporting a third party candidate

running against the Democratic nominee?

[oberliner]

139. Huh?

I am saying Ocasio-Cortez, the Democrat, is going to win, and it won't be close, and I support her completely.

[Blue_true]

54. Unlikely. It would come down to Ocasio-Cortez or Crowley.

If I were her, I would stop getting in races against Dems in other states, and I would apologize to Crowley and ask for his support and that of his supporters.

[Renew Deal]

78. Almost impossible in this district

Half of Crowley's prior general election vote easily beats the closest republican.

[Voltaire2]

121. So are you supporting his third party run

against the Democratic nominee?

[Renew Deal]

122. No

I don't care all that much either way

[Voltaire2]

125. So you support the Democratic Party nominee?

[Renew Deal]

133. Of course

[SidDithers]

8. The WFP needs to take Crowley off the ballot...

Crowley has already said Democrats need to support Ocasio-Cortez.

The WFP had really made a mess of NY14.

Sid

[oberliner]

11. They can't

[joshcryer]

21. They could declare he is a resident of Virginia.

And just take him off. It wouldn't be hard and it's not like he'd sue them to stay on the ballot.

Everyone's been saying that he's lived in Virginia for the better part of two decades so why not just declare he isn't a NY resident anymore.

[oberliner]

23. No, they can't

Crowley himself would have to switch his residency from NY to VA.

[joshcryer]

24. I know that.

I spent about 10 hours arguing this with a guy on Twitter.

But "declaring him" a resident of VA is just about as crony as him "announcing candidacy" for another seat in the same district.

Just do it even if it's completely wrong and he's a local Democratic official, registered in the local party, a resident of NY (his ID is in NY because if he had a VA ID he wouldn't be able to register or vote in NY elections).

Just make the declaration, he can deny it, they can take him off the ballot, he won't sue to stay on, and no one else would have standing to sue (some WFP people who maybe voted for him might try but they wouldn't have standing). It'd go away quietly.

[exboyfil]

27. By doing that aren't you publicly accusing him of fraud?

For running in the primary for the district? So long as he maintains a residence in his district and is a US Representative, he is a resident of that district.

[joshcryer]

34. How am I doing that?

Obviously if the WFP did that they would be accusing him of fraud. But they have no problem, as a party, having their nominated candidates run for office on different parts of the ballot as it suits them.

So who cares what they think or do.

[Renew Deal]

81. Advocating dishonest activity is not the best way to go

[joshcryer]

112. I'm not advocating anything.

I think nobody should do anything and just ignore this quirk of the system. That's what I think should happen.

I'm just disputing that WFP doesn't have any options. Everyone has options. All the options appear, at least to me, to violate law or are downright dishonest or screwy. Demanding Crawley make Alexandria his principle residence, for example, means he'd have to quit the NY Democratic position he has. That's just as screwy.

[Renew Deal]

113. I agree

[DFW]

50. Almost every member of congress takes a residence in the DC area

Do we expect Bernie Sanders to commute back to Burlington, VT every night? Nancy Pelosi to San Francisco? Mazie Hirono to Honolulu?

Imagine Republicans being able to get them all off the ballot for being residents of the DC metro area.

[joshcryer]

58. Oh my goodness, I'm not agreeing with that rhetoric.

I'm saying if the WFP wanted to they could make that argument and just go with it even though it's complete BS. Of course every legislator has a home in DC. Even AOC will have a home there. As far as the courts are concerned residency is literally where you call home.

If AOC wanted to she could sue to have him removed from the ballot, using that same right wing talking point.

I'm only arguing that their hands aren't tied in this case, and it's not all on Crowley to get himself off the ballot, there are options, and every option is crony crap.

[former9thward]

61. Only the candidate has that power.

The party does not. They can declare him anything they want but the candidate would have to agree for election officials to take him off the ballot after he has won the primary spot for that line.

[joshcryer]

69. So you're saying if he moved to France...

...they couldn't take him off the ballot without him agreeing to it?

[former9thward]

73. The party (or the election board) would then have standing under the election rules

to act to remove him.. But he hasn't moved so that is moot.

[Renew Deal]

80. That would be dishonest

I'm all for finding legal ways to resolve this.

[Squinch]

10. She won the primary. We need to unite behind EVERY one of our candidates.

OC is beginning to get on my last nerve too, but we can't afford any division now.

She's the candidate. We need to get behind her. Hopefully she'll soon stop making that so difficult.

[oberliner]

12. How is she making it difficult to support her?

[Squinch]

16. If I didn't know better I would think you were trying to gin

up division among Democrats. But that can't be the case so I'll just pass on your very innocent question.

[JI7]

18. +

[stonecutter357]

135. +1000

[Renew Deal]

83. Supporting primary challengers against reliable Democrats

[melman]

108. She's not

Some just want to blame her for their own negative and very obvious agenda.

[R B Garr]

111. Yes, supporting safe seat Democrats is an "agenda"

How are you harmed by Democrats elected by their constituents in their own districts?

Talk about "very obvious" agendas....

[OnDoutside]

13. Do the WFP have to pay to put Crowley on the ballot, and surely there is something wrong with doing

that, without his consent ? I'm surprised they can do it without his signature.

[Nanjeanne]

33. The WFP have endorsed Ocasio Cortez. They can't do anything about Crowley appearing

on the ballot without Crowley’s help and he has said its too difficult for him to do that but he is not running. Although I haven’t yet seen his rejection of Lieberman’s suggestion that people vote for him. I would think he could write an opinion piece showing his support for Ocasio Cortez and rejecting Lieberman’s suggestion for the WSJ. That would go a long way. We will see if he does.

[OnDoutside]

53. But it was the WFP who put Crowley's name forward, wasn't it ? If so, I don't understand how it

could be valid without Crowley's acceptance.

[Nanjeanne]

62. It was before Ocasio Ortiz won the Dem Primary. Now the WFP wants to put her name

on the ballot but can’t do that without Crowley. He has objections to the NY rules about how to do that so he remains.

[OnDoutside]

72. I'm sorry but I still don't get it ! I don't understand how they were ALLOWED to put his name on the

ballot, under the WFP banner, in the first place. If he had won the primary, would he have been on the ballot twice ? If they are now endorsing OO, why didn't they put her name on the ballot in the first place ?

I understand what Crowley is saying re the NY rules (which is nuts in itself), it's how this situation was allowed to happen in the first place that I don't get.

[Nanjeanne]

74. He was endorsed by WFP before Ocasio Cortez won the Dem Primary. Everyone thought

Crowley would win. Ow WFP wants to remove his name on the ballot and put Icasio Cortez. If you have a beef take it up with NY on their crazy rules.

[OnDoutside]

82. It's the "WFP wants to remove his name on the ballot" that is my question. Not to worry, maybe

someone else can answer it.

[Nanjeanne]

98. Yes the WFP wants his name removed. They can't do it until he agrees to vacate

the line. They asked. He refused because he feels the ways to do it aren’t ones he is comfortable with. That’s the answer.

Of course he could write an opinion piece encouraging his supporters to vote for Ocasio Cortez. He could agree to campaign for her. He could reply to the WSJ article that he rejects Lieberman’s suggestion that people vote for him. He could do many things. But he did tweetthat he is not running so he must feel that’s sufficient for unity.

[OnDoutside]

99. I get all the rest of it, but who the hell are WFP to put his name on the ballot without his

agreement ?

[Nanjeanne]

102. Oh God. They didn't. He was running in the Primary. He accepted their endorsement.

[moriah]

105. WFP relies on "fusion voting".

They endorse many people at the state and local level who are more progressive than the Democrat in those seats, or sometimes the most progressive Democrat, but try to get their nominees for higher offices to match that of the Democratic Party ticket so a person in the primary or general can show their support for the more progressive party and their endorsed candidates for lower level elections, yet still not dilute the vote at the top.

So they want his name off and hers on, so their members can symbolically show their support and influence by how many people vote straight WFP line -- state and local more progressive than the Dem as many elections like city council, etc, can be in NY, people they send to Washington the same as the Democratic Party nominee.

[Renew Deal]

89. Petition signatures

Anyone that gets enough ends up on the ballot. No consent is required, though he consented to being put on the ballot before everything happened.

[Renew Deal]

86. I think this is the best option

The reason this is an issue is that it's such a blowout Dem district

[Renew Deal]

84. All you need is petition signatures

No money and no consent

[joshcryer]

17. I think this is why Crowley isn't bending over backwards to get off the ballot.

And that's why they're so fucking pissed at him.

I mean, I'd be pissed, too.

But fuck it if I wasn't the 4th top Democrat in all of Congress and somehow I was still on the ballot after some newcomer came along, why should I do a damn thing? Pop open a beer and watch and see what happens, would be my attitude.

It also gives the party a backup plan in case Ocasio-Cortez does some stupid ass shit. She already walked back her Israeli Occupation rhetoric, for example.

[Ezior]

19. I'm not a US citizen, but please, for the love of god. Hold your nose and vote for the Dem.

I know there are valid reasons to dislike her. Like her recent Israel "I'm not an expert" disaster.

But everyone: please, please, please vote for the Dem in the general election. If you don't like a candidate, vote them out in the primary.

The one exception might be if the Dem candidate is (for whatever reason) a Russian asset, and the Rep candidate is a patriot in comparison. Or similar situations.

This is not about policy differences, it's about keeping the republic. Doing experiments outside of the 2-party system is too risky. You need every congress person you can get to fix checks&balances on Trump.

[Renew Deal]

93. We're OK in this district

This is only an issue because Democrats dominate the district.

[joshcryer]

20. Oh my god, apparently Joe Lieberman is advocating Crowley:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vote-joe-crowley-for-working-families-1531868231

Can 2018 be more bizarre?

[JI7]

22. because of AOC's position and history of comments on Israel

[Voltaire2]

126. As are a whole lot of people in this thread.

[beachbum bob]

29. crowley is not our nominee and doesn't deserve any further discussion in DU

[Squinch]

40. He might be a nice candidate for something in the future, but

yes. OC is our candidate. Everyone in her district needs to vote for her.

[DFW]

43. We need to be wary of adopting a double standard

Bernie Sanders was not our nominee in 2016, but quite a few people on DU thought he deserved further discussion.

[OnDoutside]

55. Ouch !

[Blue_true]

57. You make a good point.

It amazes me to see how some people that were ok with how some things happened now don't want to see those things happen. The hypocrisy stinks to high heaven.

[sarah FAILIN]

32. How is he still on the ballot if she won?

I must have missed this and don't understand..

Here, if you lose your primary, you're off the ballot.

[joshcryer]

35. There's a third party, the Working Family Party, that is on the ballot.

And he won their primary. It's really convoluted.

[Bettie]

36. He's on the ballot as a third party candidate

and says he can't get his name off.

[LeftInTX]

37. I just read that it's a New York thing....

Weird by my standards...

[Renew Deal]

46. This is basically the answer

[George II]

96. He's on the ballot under the Working Families Party. Years ago...

...when Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic Primary he ran under something like "Lieberman for Connecticut" and was elected.

[ucrdem]

39. Another possibility is that Ocasio-Cortez gets in a quarrel with Democratic party leaders

and takes herself out of the race. That seems unlikely, but far LESS likely to happen if Crowley is still on the ticket, so simply as an insurance policy it seems prudent to keep him on it.

[Blue_true]

59. I agree. nt

[KCDebbie]

63. Ocasio-Cortez won a primary in which very few Dems voted...

And it seems to have gone to her head.

She hasn't even won an election yet, only a primary in which it seems that mostly her supporters showed up...

[ucrdem]

67. Yes and so did Crowley it seems.

If WFP is actually a party like 3rd parties in Calif, and Crowley won their primary, then he has a legitimate place on the general election ballot. I imagine that under different circumstances he might find a way to remove his name but as it stands I think he should leave it there.

[Voltaire2]

127. "only a primary in which it seems that mostly her supporters showed up"

Is anyone winning a direct election where where mostly the other guys supporters showed up?

[KCDebbie]

137. I meant that she won a primary with a very low

Turnout...

Crowley' s supporters somehow thought he could win without any one turning out to vote for him...

After more than a year and a half since the 2016 Election, Dems are still not showing up to vote!

[Voltaire2]

140. Primaries almost always have very low turnouts.

The efforts here to diminish her win, to attack her efforts to support other progressive candidates in other primaries, and now to openly support a third party run against her, are appalling.

[KCDebbie]

143. ...

Whatever!

[Le Gaucher]

60. There should be a sore loser law (NJ does) that bars people from

contesting in the General if they lose the primary.

Not as an independent or under any other party.


Crowley needs to be gracious and get the fuck out of the race.

[former9thward]

64. Crowley won the WPP primary.

So he gets that line.

[Renew Deal]

95. It would take a revamp of NY election laws

There is built in corruption in the current NY system of running on multiple lines.

[emulatorloo]

104. Crowley isn't running. He conceded and endorsed AOC on primary night. This is WFP screw-up

They themselves put him on the ballot, and NY election law makes it hard for him to be taken off.

He threw his support behind Ocasio-Cortez on election night. Said it is time for Dems to reunite. Graciously Sang and dedicated Springsteen’s born to run to Ocasio-Cortez in his concession speech

He isn’t running. He isn’t contesting. No rally’s no speeches no phonebanking.

Apparently WFP also screwing up re the Governor’s race

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210891331

[dembotoz]

66. Thought we were not supposed to refight primary results

Pisses off admin or some such

[Renew Deal]

97. No one here is fighting

I haven't seen anyone saying that people should vote for Crowley. I'm pointing out an oddity in the NY election system that comes from the ability to run on multiple party lines and the fact that this is a VERY heavily Democratic district. This is why Crowley can win by accident.

[DinahMoeHum]

115. ". . .why Crowley can win by accident. . ."

. . .especially if both GOP voters in that district and other Democratic voters in that district cross party lines and vote for him for him simply because they either don't like Ocasio-Cortez or her behavior and/or alliances have turned them off her.

[dembotoz]

116. What ever the cause.. she won the primary

[DinahMoeHum]

117. There's still the general election to win in November.

The primary victory in June WON'T. MEAN. SHIT. if Ocasio-Cortez doesn't win the general election in November.

And given the political gyrations going on in New York, and Lieberman from CT butting in, this election is in no way a guaranteed victory for her.

She has to step up her GOTV ground game and take it to a whole new level if she wants that seat in Congress.

[dembotoz]

118. Due diligence is important

[radius777]

130. Exactly. Voters can 'call an audible

at the line of scrimmage' should they not like what they see at that point.

Crowley is the guy they always voted for and they know he is a loyal Dem, a quality that rank-and-file Dem voters (especially older ones) value highly.

Even if he was not on the WFP line, general election voters could've simply wrote him in if they were put off by AOC and some of her un-Dem behaviors and views.

So him being on the WFP is not the issue, AOC is, and she has to earn the votes and confidence of the wider Dem constitutency... simply winning a low turnout primary doesn't entitle her to that.

NY14 like much of NYC is Hillary/Obama Dem country .. Bernie got crushed there as he did in most metro areas across the country, which are more cosmopolitan/internationalist than populist/nationalist.

[H2O Man]

68. Hopefully, all Democrats

will vote for our party's candidate.

[ucrdem]

88. WFP would be disinclined to remove a candidate unless compelled to

if as in Calif. their ballot status is keyed to winning a certain percentage of the general election. I forget the exact formula but the way it works or at least used to work here is that if a 3rd party doesn't win a certain threshold statewide (1 or 2%) they have to start over next election, i.e. gather signatures and/or pay a rather handsome filing fee. So there's an incentive to get votes one way or another and removing Crowley would defeat that.

[vi5]

101. They tried and asked Crowley to do what is needed to get off the ballot.

Crowley refuses.

[moriah]

109. Drop dead, commit a crime, potentially dodge NY taxes by falsely declaring Virginia residence...

... or potentially commit election fraud by accepting a new nomination in an election he has no intention of running in?

After Lie-berman saying his shit, if I were Crowley I'd be talking with an attorney about the most legal way he can do it, but giving Crowley attention at all is potentially going to divide the electorate. That's why my response to the suggestion people poll on whether they'd vote for Crowley would just be putting his name in front of more voters.

There should be a way for a nominated candidate to turn down the nomination if all agree without these complicated maneuvers. Remember AOC herself was able to decline the Reform Party nomination she received, but only because she was a write-in.

Otherwise, the best strategy for AOC is IMHO to let Crowley's name be forgotten in this election.

[vi5]

110. What did Lieberman say?

That's the scenario I'm seeing now. That the party doesn't want Crowley to win the same way the "didn't want" Lieberman to win. Wink-wink, nudge-nudge.

[moriah]

119. Uh, after he truly left the Party, most people didn't want him to win.

He is suggesting that people vote for Crowley, trying to divide the electorate, the usual things you expect from him now.

Wish it was legal to permanently bind and gag some people and stuff them in basements where we'd never hear their ramblings again. Unfortunately it's not.

[budkin]

100. No, he couldn't

He's not the nominee and he won't be winning anything.

[BlueDog22]

103. Stupidity

We just need a Democrat in the seat. It doesn't matter which one. We cannot allow the seat to turn red. We need to flip the house.

[vi5]

106. I'm sure that the DCCC will be helping Ocasio-Cortez win...

...because they DEFINITELY are an organization whose goal is to help get all Democrats elected to the House and not at ALL only favorable to 'moderates" and "centrists" and most importantly incumbents.

So in this situation where there is the potential for a third party spoiler candidate in Crowley, I'm sure the DCCC will pull out all the stops to help the rightful winner of the Democratic primary for this seat.

Right?

[JI7]

141. Crowley is a Democrat

he isn't going to caucus with republicans and there is no chance for republicans to win in that district.

[Tiggeroshii]

107. Well he wouldnt be a Democrat, clearly

[oberliner]

128. He isn't running - he has endorsed the winner of the Democratic primary

[RandySF]

131. He repeated that he's not running

[Jim Lane]

145. That's good reason for Crowley to take his name off the ballot.

And, despite all this bullshit on DU about him "abandoning his home" or the like, it would mean just filling in a couple forms.