What Are Devin Nunes Chances Of Retaining His Seat....

[global1]

in the Midterms? Is he up against a substantial opponent?

[HopeAgain]

1. With or without Russian help?

nt

[Brother Buzz]

2. A curious push poll indicates it could be a horse race to the end - GOTV being the factor

https://gvwire.com/2018/08/14/new-poll-by-democratic-consultant-indicates-janz-could-beat-nunes/

New Poll by Democratic Consultant Indicates Janz Could Beat Nunes

A poll by a San Francisco consulting firm suggests that Fresno County prosecutor Andrew Janz is gaining ground in his challenge of eight-term Republican Devin Nunes of Tulare.

“The poll found a surprisingly competitive contest between Nunes and Janz, with voters sharply divided in their opinions of Congressman Nunes and the race becoming dead even after voters hear more information about both candidates,” a poll summary stated.


Poll Methodology

Tulchin Research conducted what it described as a scientific survey of 400 likely voters in California’s 22nd District from July 22-25. The poll’s margin of error is plus-minus 4.9 percentage points. Tulchin said that interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.

Findings from an initial round of questions indicated the Nunes, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, would beat Janz by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin in the Nov. 6 election.

But after more questions, which Tulchin said included “both positive and negative information about both candidates,” Janz drew into a dead heat with Nunes at 47 percent each.

“The polling is a direct result of the dedicated volunteers and grassroots supporters we have here on the ground, making this a real fight in CA-22,” Janz said in a statement. “But at the end of the day, the only poll that truly matters is the final vote count on November 6th.”

<more>

https://gvwire.com/2018/08/14/new-poll-by-democratic-consultant-indicates-janz-could-beat-nunes/

[bearsfootball516]

3. It's a deep red district. In the previous midterm, he won by 36 points.

He's got a good opponent in Andrew Janz, but the district is so red that we'll have to see what happens.

[FM123]

4. Andrew Janz is trying......

(Vox Article)
California’s 22nd District: Devin Nunes has made quite a name for himself
Who is the Democrat? There’s one standout Democrat: Andrew Janz, the Fresno County deputy district attorney. He’s been endorsed by the California Democratic Party and has a $1.8 million war chest to go against Republican incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes. Two others, entrepreneur Bobby Bliatout and business consultant Ricardo Franco, are also running.

Who are the Republicans? Incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes has made quite a name for himself under Trump as the author of the House Intelligence Committee’s dubious Russia investigation memo. He’s been in Congress since 2013.

What’s the story? This won’t be an easy race for Democrats in November. The Fresno-area district is conservative and rated “Solid Republican.” But Democrats are still gunning for it because Nunes, the chair for the House Select Committee on Intelligence, is so well-known and hated for his role releasing the committee’s Russia investigation memo. He’s been a very pro-Trump figure, pushing the narrative that the FBI abused its powers while investigating Trump’s 2016 campaign. Nunes has supposedly recused himself from the investigation because of his close ties to Trump and his role on the president’s transition team.
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/4/17390070/california-primary-2018-midterms-house-blue-wave

[LonePirate]

5. Probably greater than 90% chance Nunes is re-elected. The district is heavily Republican.

And Republicans only care about one thing with regard to its congressional representatives: how loyal the rep is to 45. Few have been more loyal to him than Nunes.

[brooklynite]

6. FiveThirtyEight's model gives him 95% probability

I use this race as an example of allowing emotion to blur decision-making on which candidates to support. Everyone hates him, so it's appealing to think of beating him, but there are dozens of competitive races that need your help more.

[MineralMan]

7. He'll probably win reelection.

The best option is to find a pile of skeletons in his closets. If there is a scandal that can be documented, that could swing the district. Or, perhaps, an indictment, a la Duncan Hunter.

A remarkable GOTV effort might also do the trick, especially if Republicans stayed home on election day.