FL-GOV: What is Gillum's path to victory?

[RandySF]

Last edited Wed Aug 29, 2018, 09:35 PM - Edit history (1)

I expect good turnout for him within larger city limits, Central Florida and of course the Tallahassee area. And while he'll do well with millennials all the way up to 40, I'm worried he'll take it on the chin along the Gold Coast, Panhandle and even Palm Beach. Where do you think his advantage is?

[janterry]

1. He has to get out the African American vote

They didn't come out in large enough numbers for Hillary. They did for Obama. They really put him over the top.

[SkyDancer]

2. The Hispanic vote in FL is much larger

and will be essential

[Garrett78]

8. Many Latinos in Florida are conservative. While Gillum does need to win a majority...

...of the Latino vote, turnout among Black folks (17% of the population) will be important.

[SkyDancer]

9. On CNN just now

Puerto Rico is going to swing them left

[ehrnst]

42. Actually, Puerto Rico is socially conservative

The assumption is that Puerto Rico, once statehood is achieved, will vote Democratic.

In fact, it is impossible to predict how Puerto Rico will vote. Here’s why:

Parties in Puerto Rico are different from those on the mainland. They center on the question of status. Rather than voting Democratic because their parents did, Puerto Ricans will choose the candidate who best represents their views.

Puerto Ricans are typically more socially conservative than the Democratic party on the mainland. We saw this in the recent survey of Puerto Rican voters in Florida and in the decision by a federal judge in Puerto Rico to uphold the ban on gay marriage.
Predictions about how territories will vote have historically been inaccurate. For example, it was widely believed that Hawaii would be a red state and Alaska a blue one. It is in fact the other way around.

States change their minds, too. The Southern Dixiecrats were actually a different political party from the Democrats, but the South was so heavily Democratic at one time that this was forgotten. Now, Southern states tend to vote Republican.

The idea that Puerto Rico would vote Democrat is in part based on voting patterns among mainland Hispanic voters. However, the majority of current U.S. Latino voters have Mexican roots, not Puerto Rican. Deciding that Puerto Ricans would follow the pattern of Mexican Americans is a lot like deciding that the French would be in political sync with Hatians. They might… or they might not.

http://www.pr51st.com/misconceptions-puerto-rico-statehood-puerto-rico-blue-state/

[ehrnst]

6. He did get out the African American vote-

Imagine this: line up every county in Florida by how many of its registered Democrats (at the time of the primary bookclosing) are black. Divide the line into thirds.

The first, least-black third includes counties like Pasco and Sarasota, where most Democrats are white, as well as Osceola, where most are Hispanic. In those counties, Graham beat Gillum by 17 points.
The middle counties, like Brevard, Pinellas and Palm Beach, have a moderate share of black Democrats. There, Graham still won, by nine points.

But in the blackest third of counties, it was a different story. Those counties, where black voters make up more than a quarter of registered Democrats, went overwhelmingly for Gillum. He won by 15 points. And those counties include heavyweights like Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Broward and Duval. Of the 18 counties Gillum won, 16 were in this group.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/29/how-the-black-vote-carried-andrew-gillum-to-victory/

He aligned himself with Obama:

[Cha]

27. Ex-Actly, ehrnst! Just what I was thinking!

Link to tweet

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/29/how-the-black-vote-carried-andrew-gillum-to-victory/

Mahalo for your post!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

3. It's going to be tough, but I think it can be done

He needs to get moderate to conservative dems on board for him. That sounds straightforward enough until you see the kinds of issues Ben Jealous is having in Maryland.

Obviously, he has to campaign hard in Dade / Broward / Palm Beach, as well as Jax & Orlando. He needs a group of Dems as varied as Buddy Dyer to DWS to go to bat for him.

He has the advantage of being from Tallahassee - a place Dems don't usually do well. Panhandle inroads could be good.

The West Coast is generally beat Red, but the red tide caused (arguably) by algae runoff gives him to campaign on environmental issues on the west coast. Somebody should be going to jail or paying a whopping fine for that, and I'd make that point frequently on the stump.

I have another recommendation. He and Bill Nelson should appear together - a lot. Gillum should spread the word that AA and younger Dem-left voters should be excited about sending Bill back to the Senate and sending Rick Scott the Hell home. Nelson should tell older and whiter voters that this is a young man that understands their challenges and issues and will make a Helluva lit better governor than the Trump surrogate.

[RandySF]

4. Gillum/Graham ticket?

[mcar]

24. Any Florida Democrat who doesn't vote for our nominee

should just change parties, because they aren't Democrats.

Democrats shouldn't have to be coaxed to vote for Gillum.

[GulfCoast66]

5. Florida is not Mississippi. Even the panhandle has blue areas

If DeSantos ran like Putnam would have he would be hard to beat. His comments yesterday indicated he has no intention of moderating his rhetoric while Gillum is sounding calm and reasonable.

It will be tough and close, but I am feeling way more optimistic than I was 48 hours ago.

Plus, Gwen’s immediate and enthusiastic endorsement is a great start and a lesson to all Democratic candidates. She can help him a lot.

Oh, and Bernie needs to stay away. His supporters are already on board. His support may have put Gillum over the top in the primary but will not help in the general unless it is targeted emails to his supporters encouraging them to vote. That would help. Let Andrew call the shots.

[RandySF]

16. How about a Gillum/Graham ticket?

[GulfCoast66]

22. That would be our best hope

Backing Gillum is one thing.

Lt Governor in Florida is a thankless and meaningless position.

[Cha]

28. Gwen Graham's been the best!

[csziggy]

32. Last week I suggested a Graham- Gillum ticket

I'd vote for Gillum - Graham!

[MaryMagdaline]

7. Clean up in Dade Broward and duval

Break even in the I-4 corridor

The fact that he had a great ground game and over performed on Graham’s turf is s good sign.

[Blue_true]

12. He should be able to run ahead in the I-4.

That region is progressive and is comfortable with electing Blacks to major offices and also electing non Cuban Latinoes. Even the younger Cubans are voting more Dem than repugh. Gillum need to clean up in South Florida, Alachua, Leon and Duval counties, add to a lead in the I-4, then hang on for dear life as the red areas report. I think that he can pull it off.

[MaryMagdaline]

18. He grew up in Gainesville so that helps

Born in Miami, raised in Gainesville, mayor of Tallahassee and everyone likes the rattlers.

[Garrett78]

10. Florida in mid-terms is typically red and more purple in presidential years. So...

...simply put, it's all about turnout defying historical trends.

[GulfCoast66]

23. Yep. Middle class and higher vote at a high rate.

That means more whites and favors republicans.

But Gillum might be able to change that. Against Putnam we would have no prayer. But DeSantos is a nut. Of course Florida voted for Trump, so the odds are against us.

[Garrett78]

37. It's certainly to our advantage (one would think) that FL, GA, KS and OK have all...

...nominated Trump acolytes to be Republican gubernatorial candidates.

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Very good summary

For reference purposes, the Florida exit polls from 2014 and 2016:

* 2014 midterm: 40% self-identified conservatives, 22% liberals
* 2016 presidency: 36% self-identified conservatives, 25% liberals.

At face value that's a shift of 3-4% each way, but keep in mind 2014 was a heavy GOP advantage nationwide. That won't apply to 2018 which figures to be a Democratic slant. So although I'm not sure we can have a 36/25 split like a Florida presidential norm, it shouldn't be too far away. And not out of the question it does resemble a presidential ideological share.

If so, then Gillum has a huge chance. Trump only managed 48.6% in Florida. Never lose sight of those numbers. The guy won despite 46% nationwide and in one pivotal state after another he did not reach 50%. If the Republican candidates mirror the Trump slice then one after another is going down. Scott only managed 48% during reelection in 2014. It's not as if these Florida Republicans have been establishing 53 or 55% and we have to shove them down a half dozen points or more.

Otherwise, racism may not be a prevalent as misogyny. I mentioned in the Florida forum two weeks ago that the white nutcases I have known for 35 years dating to Las Vegas are more accepting of voting for a scandal plagued black male than a traditional white woman. It sounds out of whack but that's the way they think. Women in positions of power are threatening to them.

Besides, the white split has been like 68-32 recently. How much lower can it go? I view it like Trump approval rating. We may wish that into the 20s but it's not happening. Likewise I'm sure right wingers wish and believe that Democratic white split into the 20s. It's not happening. If a charismatic well spoken guy like Gillum runs a solid campaign and connects with the working class whites willing to listen, he may gain a couple of unexpected points.

Keep in mind that most voters expected Hillary to win in 2016. There is kind of an under reported reflexive desire to split government. So many of those voters who ended up with Trump in 2016 without much conviction could easily shift back to Democrats in statewide and federal races in 2018, likewise without much conviction but it simply feels like the right thing to do. Not all of this is ultra sophisticated. I know that from hosting debate watching parties for many years and listening carefully to all the discussions. That split government theme came up all the time, far more often than it is touted on political programs.

Also, Hispanics need to show up. They were 18% of the Florida electorate in 2016 but only 13% during the 2014 midterm. That difference accounted for the white share at 69% in 2014 compared to 62% in Florida 2016. Blacks were 14% each time.

Hispanic women were 10% of the Florida vote in 2016 but only 6% in 2014. They outnumbered Hispanic males in 2016 but were lower than Hispanic males in 2014. And that is representative of our biggest problem by far in midterms every time -- Democratic leaning women simply don't bother to show up, especially young single women.

[Garrett78]

38. Good info.

Democrats really need to work on boosting mid-term turnout, and raise hell about voter suppression.

I'm hopeful that Gillum will inspire high turnout for our side.

[gulliver]

11. Old Dems showing up as usual, young Dems showing up for a change.

[OrlandoDem2]

13. He will have to win the youth vote and drive up minority turnout.

White liberals will vote for Gillum but I think he should pick Graham as LG to shore them up. The universities in FL are all massive. FSU, UF, UCF, FIU, USF are all behemoths with 40-60K students. Then there are dozens of small universities and state colleges. He needs all of them. He will have to drive up the black votes.

A serious concern I’m reading about is that the Puerto Rican’s who moved here after the hurricane last year have not been registering. The Party must start registering the youth and the Puerto Ricans like their lives depend on it.

Gillum will have to appeal to moderates and I think he can. Whereas DeSantis sounds like a crazy person, Gillum sounds level-headed.

Dems MUST MUST MUST play up environmental issues. Although FL is center-right/purple, protection of our beaches is a priority. Furthermore, I hate Rick Scott and Donald Trump but they won partly due to an emphasis on jobs. Dems must have an economic message. People want good jobs, not Wawa jobs!

[yardwork]

43. I agree with all your points.

I think that the toxic red algae along the Gulf coast gives the Democrat an opportunity to make inroads with small business owners dependent on the tourist trade. These folks usually vote Republican but they could be persuaded to vote Democratic this year.

Gillum is saying the right things. He needs to come across as warm, calm, practical. A problem-solver, like Obama.

Latino turnout for Gillum must be high. That may be one of his biggest challenges. And he must hold on to the huge African American turnout that gave him the nomination.

[rso]

14. Florida

Let’s not forget that Obama won Florida both times. And McCain and Romney were not nearly as extreme as is DeSantis.

[Garrett78]

15. Yes, but our turnout in presidential years is stronger relative to Republicans.

Not so much in mid-terms. And Obama is more moderate. It doesn't help that Gillum is linked to an FBI investigation. I still think he can win, but not because Obama carried Florida.

[rso]

19. Florida

On the other side though, while Obama was more moderate, De Santis is much more extreme than McCain or Romney.

[Garrett78]

20. Yes. It helps immensely that Trump's preferred candidates keep winning.

[oberliner]

40. Obama-Romney was extremely close in Florida

Obama-McCain was pretty close as well.

Both were nearly 50-50.

[FM123]

17. Broward County.

We still wear Parkland very heavy on our hearts and his strong stand against the NRA matters.

[Takket]

25. He needs to pull Hillary's numbers but turn around the Cuban-american vote

Hillary lost Florida by a little over 100000 votes and it was a bludgeoning by Cuban Americans that really hurt her. The anger was over Obama's attempt to normalize relations with Cuba.

If Gillum more or less pulls Hillary's voters + the Cuban American vote, he's in.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/

In Florida, Cubans were about twice as likely as non-Cuban Latinos to vote for Donald Trump. More than half (54%) supported the Republican president-elect, compared with about a quarter (26%) of non-Cuban Latinos, according to National Election Pool exit poll data.

A significant share of Cubans in Florida voted for Hillary Clinton – 41% – but this was far below the 71% of non-Cuban Latinos who backed the Democratic nominee. At the same time, the level of support for Trump among Cubans was similar to that of non-Latinos in the state (51%).

Overall, 35% of Latino voters in Florida supported Trump, but that share was down from 2012, when Mitt Romney won 39% of their vote.

Two-thirds (67%) of the nation’s 1.2 million Cuban eligible voters live in Florida, with many living in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area. But as Florida’s Latino eligible voter population has grown (reaching 2.6 million in 2014), the Cuban share of that population has declined to 31%. (The Puerto Rican share of the state’s Latino eligible population stands at 28%.)

[GusBob]

26. Guns and Glades

Get the anti NRA kids behind you

Stand up to big sugar

[Algernon Moncrieff]

36. Yes on both counts

Especially with the big algae release from Lake O being linked to the awful red tide.

[hedda_foil]

29. Yes I dunno, Randy. You're the one in the know. What do YOU think?

[RandySF]

30. I pnly have a general idea of Florida. That's why I asked.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

33. I think Gillum has some trends going in his favor

Puerto Rico
Gun violence from Parkland and the weak reaction from the GOP on that issue
Black voters who support his stance on Stand Your Ground and other issues

I'm more worried about voter suppression than anything else. I know how much the far-right banks on that to win. Look at the games they were/are playing in Georgia against Stacey Abrams. It's the elephant in the room too many people don't want to acknowledge.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. This is much greater opportunity than Georgia or Texas races

I hope that is understood. In fact, Nate Silver specifically emphasized about a month ago that Georgia and Texas were being overstated in terms of pick up opportunities, due to the tendency of those states to vote very red in statewide races. I agree with Nate's take:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-are-the-most-important-swing-voters-in-this-years-midterms/

natesilver: I’ve become somewhat convinced, though, that the Sun Belt path — e.g., picking up a ton of districts in states like Georgia and Texas — is a little overrated for Democrats.

For one thing, those aren’t the districts where they’ve performed all that well in special elections, as Nathaniel noted. But for another, they’re a bit redder than you’d gather from looking at presidential elections — both states are very red in state elections, for instance.

[RandySF]

35. Hard to say. Stacey Abrams is a much better campaigner.

[oberliner]

41. Than Gillum?

Why do you say that?

[Awsi Dooger]

46. I don't care about campaigner compared to ideology of the state

Texas and Georgia simply have too many conservatives for me to get excited, especially in a midterm

[quaker bill]

39. It is pretty clear

he needs to run up the usual Dem margins in every place where he won the primary. He will likely do this. Then he just needs to lose all the places Hillary lost by a few less votes, mostly by getting he black voters to the polls. There is a vast sea of red in FL that every Dem loses, the difference between winning and losing statewide is how deep that loss is. Hillary lost deep, Barack lost narrowly, that is the answer to FL, and it always has been.

[yardwork]

44. It's possible that it might be a little different this year.

New issues - severe toxic algae on the Gulf coast this year that has gone on for a long time, hurricane refugees from Puerto Rico, the Parkland massacre and its impact on young voters - could create new opportunities for Democrats if we get out the vote.

[quaker bill]

45. you will get no argument from me

I have a friend running for the FL Senate in what would most years be a deep red district. I think she has a shot, a narrow one, but a shot.

[JCMach1]

47. Same as Obama's in Florida