***GENERIC BALLOT: DEMOCRATS OPEN 10-POINT ADVANTAGE***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Last edited Sat Sep 8, 2018, 01:22 PM - Edit history (1)

Posted on 09/08/2018 | by Scott Rasmussen
If the election were held today, 49% of the nation’s most likely voters would vote for the Democrat from their district while 39% would vote for the Republican. The ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 4% would vote for some other party and 7% are not sure.


These results, based upon a full week of polling from September 4-7, 2018, represent the first time that ScottRasmussen.com has released data based upon a likely voter model.

Our race-by-race projections currently show 210 House seats at least tilting in the Republican direction and 205 tilting towards the Democrats. Twenty-seats are in the Toss-Up category. If the Democrats maintain a ten-point lead through November, they are likely to win the vast majority of Toss-Up races and even some currently tilting towards the GOP. Our model currently shows that with a decent partisan turnout, Democrats could end up with a 238 to 197 majority in the House

...

https://scottrasmussen.com/full-week-generic-ballot/

DON'T BOO, VOTE !

[underthematrix]

1. Added this to my twitter profile

Link to tweet

[Sherman A1]

2. I will look for Generic on my ballot

when I vote in November.

Remember "All Politics Are Local."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Res ipsa loquitur

If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win. The FiveThirtyEight generic ballot tracker, which we launched today, can help you do that. The generic ballot question, posed by pollsters for decades, is simple: It asks which party voters would support in a congressional election1; there’s usually no mention of specific candidate names — that’s what makes it “generic.” We hope you’ll check it out every day between now and November 2018. (Occasionally is fine too.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/

[Sherman A1]

4. I will vote in my local election and hope that it is a huge turnout nationwide, but

as to what happens elsewhere? It is pretty much beyond my control. So Thank You for the invite, but I am sure there will be more than enough information here, elsewhere online and on TV.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Trump won't want to quote this Rassmussen poll n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Scott Rasmussen sold the polling company that bears his name a few years ago.

I believe he is cooperating with Harris Interactive.

[Generic Other]

7. We are voting for IMPEACHMENT

That is what is going to GOTV.

[Stallion]

8. If Rasmussen Says 10%-it's More like 15%

[oberliner]

9. "Generic Democrat" would have won the 2016 Presidential election in a landslide

[Kingofalldems]

10. So you're saying Democrats can't win?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

12. No. He is not saying that. Not at all. Please read for comprehension what he wrote again. . . . nt

[Kingofalldems]

13. Didn't ask you.

Although not surprised.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

14. If you don't want public comments to public posts, don't post in public. . . . nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I do think the poster has added an element of confusion.

The generic ballot and the approval/disapproval rating of the incumbent president are correlated to the numbers of seats his or her party will win, i.e. the lower the incumbent president's approval rating is and the larger the deficit in the generic ballot, the worse his or her party does.

[Kingofalldems]

21. Looks like the post I responded to was false.

What do you have to say about that?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

22. I don't know. Neither of you have submitted evidence. . . . nt

[Kingofalldems]

23. So apparently you accepted the post I responded to on face value.

And did not ask for evidence yet you went after me for 'reading comprehension'.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. No. But what you said about it does not follow logically from what the poster wrote. . . . nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. A generic House ballot is different than a generic presidential ballot.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

28. Separate but true. . . . nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Sir, you would be incorrect.

The Republicans won the generic ballot by 1.1% in 2016 as the polls indicated:

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html

[Kingofalldems]

20. Great catch.

[Awsi Dooger]

30. My impression of oberliner's post was replace Hillary with "Generic Democrat" in 2016

And that Generic Democrat wins over Trump in a landslide, even though Hillary came up short in the electoral college.

Maybe I'm wrong but that's the way it struck me immediately. oberliner hasn't come back to clarify. I don't think the reference was to the 2016 House generic margin at all

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. That's why I said it looked as if he was trying to obfuscate the issue.

The generic ballot is an outstanding proxy for the fates of the two major parties in congressional races, i.e. it is very unlikely a party will add seats if they are losing in the generic ballot, and it very unlikely if they will lose seats if they are winning in the generic ballot. One must also take into consideration gerrymandering which mitigates the effect of the generic ballot. However gerrymandering might actually cost Republicans seats in a wave election. Instead of having a Republican +10 district the Republicans created two +5 districts. In a + 8 environment one would have saved one but the gerrymandering led to them losing both.

[lunatica]

32. Well, maybe not a landslide but Hillary did win

And since we know there has been widespread suppression of the vote, gerrymandering and misinformation going on as well as ballots being “lost”, and lets not forget electronic attacks by Russia, maybe Hillary did actually get a landslide.

We keep acting as if the vote is clean and transparent. It hasn’t been since at least the year George Bush was selected. But we just keep falling for the lies again and again.

We keep watching the same movie over and over hoping the ending will be different. If we don’t stop doing that nothing will change. Nothing.

[NurseJackie]

11. I'm looking forward to all those GENERIC wins.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Res ipsa loquitur (REDUX)

If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win. The FiveThirtyEight generic ballot tracker, which we launched today, can help you do that. The generic ballot question, posed by pollsters for decades, is simple: It asks which party voters would support in a congressional election1; there’s usually no mention of specific candidate names — that’s what makes it “generic.” We hope you’ll check it out every day between now and November 2018. (Occasionally is fine too.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/

[SkyDancer]

17. Let's make it 20 points!

I want a landslide! GOTV!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Let's make the Republican party so small you can flush it down the toilet.

[NewJeffCT]

25. That would be a fantastic goal

[GWC58]

27. And for good measure

I’ll add a chaser to follow “IT” down to the sewer! 👿

[KelleyKramer]

29. If Raz is 11 pts, the real number is 15 to 20%

Raz polls always skew far right