******ND is slipping away from us******

[Legends303]

From real clear politics has Cramer up by 10 points
ND is a red state but could this poll be an outlier or is Heitkamp a weak Democrat? If we lose then it pretty much almost guarantees Republicans keep control of the senate. Nate Silver ups Cramer chances of Cramer winning has gone up
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html

[msongs]

1. got a link to the poll? nt

[pbmus]

4. ...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/north-dakota/

////////

Lose a weak one, pick up 27....

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Anything outside the average is an outlier

[ramblin_dave]

3. Cramer has been leading for a while

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/north-dakota/

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Wow i had no idea

Looks like we should be focusing on keeping mccaskill

[LenaBaby61]

7. Cramer has been leading for a while.

I noticed that a few weeks ago. She's probably toast.

[budkin]

6. The current Senate forecast on 538 only gives us a 27% chance of retaking it

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Recent polling is bad in general

538 dropped our House changes from over 80% yesterday down to 76.3% now. Every time I check today it drops further. It had a run of several weeks above 80%

Senate is down to 27.4% after being 34.3% when 538 opened that category. That 34.3% was a bad price and really should not have been posted.

I don't know what it causing this but the trend has been obvious for days. I have been playing on Predictit before the prices change.

[standingtall]

9. I would disagree that losing ND almost garuantees republicans keep the senate

Yes republicans will probably keep the senate, because the map is bad for us, but I've always felt ND was the toughest seat to retain.
North Dakota is not only a red state,but it doesn't have a history of supporting progressive ideas in recent memory the way West Virginia and Tennessee do. If we lose this seat and win every other close race besides Texas we could take the senate, and if an upset is pulled off in Texas we could lose 2 and still take the senate.

[grantcart]

11. We are going to win

AZ

[JonLP24]

23. We may be getting a moderate Republican either way

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-kavanaugh-blasey-ford-senate-democrat-10888091

[JI7]

10. it's a very red state

[King_Klonopin]

12. Once again, 200,000 people will get to decide the make-up of the Senate. nt

[2naSalit]

14. Once again

you don't get it do you?

[King_Klonopin]

22. What exactly am I not getting? Iluminate me with your insight.

Two republican Senators from ND have the same sway as my two from MA.

[LanternWaste]

25. An intuitive grasp of the obvious, eh?

This may be of assistance with its inclusion of both analyses and treatise by different authors (though I'd imagine its sentiment, counter to yours, will be dismissed without glance)

Citadel the Story of the US Senate, by William White

[vsrazdem]

13. Anyone have the polling in Nevada

If we pick up AZ, Tenn and Nevada that would help, even if we lose ND

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Rosen led 47-43

in a poll posted here on Monday

[LenaBaby61]

15. By the way, the Democrats never had Maryland's Governorship.

Democrat Ben Jealous has been getting MAULED the whole time since he's been in the race for governor. Friends in Maryland say that Jealous is uninspiring, boring, bland and that they're still not over his attacks on Hillary from 2016. They're voting Jealous because of the D next to his name only, nothing more. They also aren't sad that Hogan's got the governorship again, even though a thuglican.

So Maryland keeps its thuglican governor Hogan whose basically a RINO.

(Off topic, sorry )

[Jrsygrl96]

17. NJ too!

I have been saying for a while that Menendez is in trouble in the very blue state of NJ. His ads are lame against Bob Hugin. He is up only 2 points right now. Also, in our Congessional race (NJ11), Mikie Sherrill has a really good shot at flipping that seat. But now an11th hour candidate by the name of Rob Crook is in the race. He is a wealthy finance guy so you know he is really a Republican trying to take votes from Sherrill.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. New Jersey polling typically understates the Democrat

Probably the most dependable state in that regard. Actually not too bad in 2016 but Hillary was about 1.5 points above the RCP polling consensus.

Republicans wasted tons of cash for more than a decade by believing overly favorable polls in New Jersey.

I'm not overly worried about a rare state with more liberals (28%) than conservatives (23%) but I have seen others voice frustration about Menendez' commercials and overall campaign.

[MFM008]

18. Remember Alabama

Anything can happen.

[laserhaas]

21. Remember the Dem party wouldn't give $1 to a candidate

And Governor Siegelman was destroyed to make sure GOP got back its control.

[bearsfootball516]

26. Alabama was an exception to the rule - A pedophile was running on the Republican side.

If Luther Strange had won the nomination, he probably wins the general by 10.

I'm hoping Heitkamp can pull it out, but I'm not counting on it right now. We'll likely need to win Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee, then hope we can hold everything else other than North Dakota.

[laserhaas]

20. In Utah, Jenny Wilson has little chance

I yearn for the day the GOP is dead

[Demsrule86]

24. It was a miracle she won in the first place...this is a red state.

I hope she pulls it out but...looking grim.

[FBaggins]

27. It's already gone

She isn’t just well behind as an incumbent, she has to vote on Kavanaugh. Either way she plays it likely hurts her.