4 likely scenarios for how the FBI investigation into Kavanaugh could end

[DonViejo]

By Amber Phillips
October 2 at 6:00 AM

The FBI investigation into sexual misconduct charges against him is supposed to last a week, and in the end Brett M. Kavanaugh will either have enough votes to be confirmed to the Supreme Court, or he won’t. But there is a lot of uncertainty between now and then. What is the FBI looking into and who will agents talk to? Will the White House give any parameters? Will a week-long investigation be enough for the senators on the fence to make a decision about Kavanaugh?

Here are four scenarios for how the latest twist in the Kavanaugh confirmation battle — an FBI investigation — could play out, ranked in order of least likely to most.

4. The FBI finds something incriminating on Kavanaugh:



3. The FBI investigation turns into a blessing in disguise for Republicans: Just as the worst-case scenario for Republicans could happen, the best-case scenario could, too. President Trump seemed to predict that when he framed the FBI investigation as a “blessing.” Instead of Kavanaugh being confirmed under a cloud of doubts, the FBI investigation could find something that clears him — an alibi with witnesses, or the alleged witnesses to the accusations all saying it didn’t happen, for example.

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2. The FBI finds that Kavanaugh misstated other parts of his testimony:

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1. The FBI doesn’t give us any clear answers: Again, the FBI isn’t going to make conclusions. It will interview witnesses and write reports. The answers that investigators get will probably be different from the ones we’ve seen from witnesses' careful statements via their attorneys, or what Congress elicited by asking partisan questions. But in the end, it’s up to senators to decide whether Kavanaugh is reasonably innocent or guilty of sexual misconduct, and what that means for his confirmation to the court.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/02/likely-scenarios-how-fbi-investigation-into-kavanaugh-could-end/

[Amishman]

1. I'm not expecting anything decisive from this

I expect a nuanced report which points out minor inconsistencies in both stories, which happens when a story (real or fake) is told many times in different settings.

This is just too old for any physical evidence to be found, unfortunately.

All that being said, this is a job interview not a trial. We don't need any proof at all to decide he is a bad choice based on character and temperament.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

2. And Allow Me To Project The Outcomes For Each Scenario

4. The FBI finds something incriminating on Kavanaugh. Likely outcome: The Republicans vote to confirm him anyway.

3. The FBI investigation finds something that clears Kavanaugh. Likely outcome: The Republicans vote to confirm him.

2. The FBI finds that Kavanaugh misstated other parts of his testimony. Likely outcome: The Republicans vote to confirm him.

1. The FBI doesn't give us any clear answers. Likely outcome: The Republicans vote to confirm him.