Please don't flame me, but we could be better off politically with a Kav. confirmation

[louis c]

Let's put everything else aside and talk strictly politics here. Let's talk math and not philosophy or ethics, and please don't flame me. I was very early on, even during the 2016 primaries, insisting that we vote party based on the Supreme Court nominations. The other side did, to a greater extent, and now we're paying the price.

But, in a scenario in which a vague, ambiguous whitewashed FBI report is sent to the Senate that is obviously dishonest because of Republican Senate and White House interference, but is used by the new "three amigos" to justify their confirmation vote, I predict the following out come.

A confirmation vote of 51 to 49 in favor of Kavanaugh (or, even more infuriating, a 50 to 50 tie broken by VP Pence), here's what I see happening.

I have been involved in politics all my life (from 12 years old, on. I'm 66). There is nothing that drives people to the polls more than the emotion of anger. Maybe hatred and fear are also in there, but those emotions can be included in why the voters are angry. To lose an election with more popular votes in 2016, and then lose this confirmation vote in a close call or a tie breaker will heighten the anger of Democratic voters. In the mean time, the Republican base will be more complacent. So, maybe we win the Senate, which will inoculate us from a third Trump pick, and slaughter the other side in the House.

If we succeed in stopping Kavanaugh, the other side will be more angry and match the Democratic enthusiasm and probably hold the Senate. By holding the Senate, we will still get a very Conservative justice in place of Kavanaugh and may have a third Trump appointed justice in the mean time.

Now, please don't misunderstand me, we should continue to fight as hard as we can to defeat Kavanaugh because that is the morally and ethically right thing to do. I just want to point out that we may lose this battle, but win the war.

[dalton99a]

1. We can't live in fear of a Trumpanzee turnout at the polls

Do the right thing, and outnumber them

[OnDoutside]

56. +1 I'm with you on that. It's hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

[PaulX2]

2. If We Survive

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I have seen this idea discussed elsewhere, and I agree with you.

It is certainly a reasonable way to view the situation.

Anger is a very useful tool. We need to use it, judiciously.

[louis c]

38. Thank you, Peggy, you get my point

This battle was lost in 2016 because too many of our coalition didn't get it.

The most telling exit poll for 2016 is this; Nearly 1 in 5 voters (19%) voted for President based solely on the Supreme Court appointment. Of those 19%, 56% voted for Trump and 42% voted for Hillary. That 14% divided by 5 amounts to nearly 3% of the overall vote, which would have swung that election our way.

Now, it seems, every Democrat gets it, now that it's too late. If Kavanaugh goes down (which, I hope he does) it will negatively affect us in the mid-terms and we will still get a Conservative Justice in his place.

[brewens]

4. It could very well work out that we control Congress and can then investigate Kavanaugh

fully. There was a reason "Turtlehead" was afraid of Kavanaugh's paper trail. There could be even more provable lies to the Senate by then as more comes out. He could be busted for perjury fairly easily. I think they would have to impeach him then.

[themaguffin]

11. Impeach him? and then what? He'll still be on the bench

[LanternWaste]

20. Federal judges are civil officers and thus fall within the jurisdiction of Article 2, Section 4

Which reads (in part) "... shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of..."

The only reason Justice Chase (impeached at the beginning of the nineteenth century) returned to duty was due to the Senate acquitting him. In 1969, Justice Abe Fortas resigned under the mere threat of impeachment hearings.

[themaguffin]

23. but it still requires the Senate, no?

[irisblue]

30. Last Supreme Ct Justice impeachment was 1805

From wiki..."The Senate voted to acquit Chase of all charges on March 1, 1805. He is the only U.S. Supreme Court justice to be to have. been impeached."
I don't like the odds on that as a strategy.


More info...He was impeached on grounds of letting his partisan leanings affect his court decisions, but was acquitted by the Senate and remained in office till his death in 1811.

[Amishman]

57. Would take 67 and Kav doesn't strike me as the surrendering type

With the current blue / red / purple state distribution, 67 and impeachment is pretty much out of the question. If he is seated, he is essentially untouchable

[qazplm135]

5. people are all over the place with this

Kav failing will lead to Trump turnout at the polls in anger.
No, Kav failing will lead to Trump voters staying home in anger.
Kav winning will leave Trump voters fat and happy and not turning out.
No, Kav winning will drive angry Trump voters to turn out.

The proper response, I don't fucking care about Trump voters. I care about Dem voters.

[Baitball Blogger]

6. Shall we call this the Sarandon strategy?

You have to hit rock bottom before you can start winning?

[Croney]

29. That was my first thought.

[louis c]

33. The Sarandon Position Cost Us a Branch of Government

This may give us one.

[lapfog_1]

7. some things transcend political calculations

like keeping a lying partisan rapist off the Supreme Court.

[louis c]

40. And replacing him with who?

[lapfog_1]

42. not a rapist?

that would be a start.

[eleny]

8. His next Federalist Society placement on the court will mean they win the war

When they dismantle the New Deal advances and social programs established since then they will have won the war they've been waging ever since the 1930s. Voting rights will be on the chopping block. So voting may not be the means to rebuild the republic we've just about lost.

[louis c]

34. But if Kavanaugh goes down, and we lose the Senate

Hillary doesn't make the next appointment, Trump does. And, every one after that for at least two years.

[eleny]

47. We're boxed in if we don't win the Senate

All we can do is work like heck to get it accomplished. Meantime, I don't see a bright side if we don't succeed. Our country has already slipped into corporatism thanks to the SCOTUS.

[JI7]

9. fuck that. we shouldn't normalize and accept white male rapists

in positions of power.

the one angry over this will already vote democratic.

the rest are ok with white men being sexual abusers just like they were with trump.

[honest.abe]

10. Nope.

Taking him out is a win for the Dems which will be a motivator for our side... conversely losing this battle could do the just the opposite and cause many on our side to feel its hopeless and not show up to vote.

We have to take this guy out.

[themaguffin]

12. Absolutely.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. Also it helps that he would have a ton of investigations

Focusing on him the minute he is sworn in.

[Hortensis]

14. Lots of good sense, but most common thought is the Republicans

MUST have this victory to energize their base to vote in the midterms. McConnell has promised to bring this to a vote intending to either win or to, as you point out, at least kindle rage to bring as many as possible out.

But a win would bring out more than just the crazies, it'd encourage and reassure both them and many of the independent conservatives.

They'd have the rest of the year to fill this seat with another archconservative jurist on the list, but far more confirmable, but they need this victory now.

Also, the right-wing craziness "out there" is not limited to out there, it's in congress as well, giving McConnell and Ryan all kinds of grief.

Otherwise, I agree with you that there are upsides we can make work for us in this very bad situation that the stupidity and hypocrisy of a few left wing voters tragically threw their nation into.

[BootinUp]

15. No need to flame you, you self immolated on ur own, lol

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. A win in Congress is for a couple of years; Kavanaugh would be in the Supreme Court for decades

If this was just a cabinet appointment, you might have a point; an electoral win now might also help chuck Trump out in 2020 if he hasn't gone by then. But this would put Kavanaugh in a position where he can be an elite white misogynist for perhaps 30 years. And only impeachment could remove him, and that's nearly impossible, if we can't get a couple of Senate Republicans to vote against appointing him now.

[gratuitous]

17. I'm done being captive to conservative anger, based in reality or fantasy

Conservatives are going to be angry no matter what happens. I don't give a damn about their anger, whether it's about something real (denying Judge Kreepazoid a seat on the Supreme Court) or imagined (e.g., child sex trafficking out of the non-existent basement of a pizza parlor).

If Kreepazoid gets confirmed, conservatives will just find something else to be mad about because they're the reliable target audience for the anger industry. It benefits certain powerful interests to make sure one quarter to one third of the electorate is in a state of mouth-foaming rage, and the reason doesn't matter.

Judge Kreepazoid becoming Justice Kreepazoid, however, will be another 20 years of Supreme Court jurisprudence bent to the interests of the wealthy and oppressive against citizens in a million different ways. And those ways will shorten life spans, increase misery for the poorest citizens, and make more citizens poorer as the wealthy further tilt society in their favor. It's a very bad trade.

[Squinch]

18. No. He's a liar and a serial sexual assaulter. He hates women. Just no.

[Charlotte Little]

19. You miss the forest for the trees

Never mind that Kavanaugh absolutely should not be on the court for a plethora of very credible reasons.

It is but one reason, and one reason alone, that he must not be sworn in. He is the fix and will allow the republicans to protect Trump at all costs. That's the reason his $$$$$ debt disappeared. He's been paid off, bought, and sold. He is Trump's operative and is a loyal marching soldier for the extreme right faction in this country.

If he gets in, it's over. And by it, I mean the country as we know it.

[FakeNoose]

22. +++ Yes this it - in a nutshell

[BumRushDaShow]

21. HELL NO. No "short term" gain is worth the "long term" hell.

The Senate has always been in flux and goes with the ebb and flow of the nation depending on the Senate "class" and when they come up for re-election. In 2020, that group that came in during 2014 that gave them the majority, will also mean a majority of (R) seats will be up and they are ripe for the picking then - notably ME, NC, GA, and possibly IA if we can wake some folks up there.

[standingtall]

24. If this guy gets on the court elections might not matter

The nations very democracy could depend on stopping republicans from stacking the supreme court with their political operatives.

[louis c]

35. Who makes the next appointment?

[Dave Starsky]

39. Exactly.

We're gonna get stuck with a slimy pseudo-evangelical butthole Russia enabler and Trump ass-kisser, no matter what. They'll just find a teetotaler who didn't rape anyone. Not hard to do.

[standingtall]

48. Does not matter if repukes keep the senate and they probably will by

a small majority and Trump is still president. If there are Democrats who vote to confirm right wing judges which could otherwise be stopped.

[Blue_true]

25. I don't agree.

With the information coming out on what he is like when drunk, republicans are in a no win situation regardless of what happens.

[mercuryblues]

26. Who is this

We you are talking about?

Certainly not minorities and women, as he has displayed, not only racist and sexist views, but has also decided court cases detrimental to them.

[louis c]

41. I'd agree if Bernie made the replacement choice, but alas

that's not the case.

Let me remind you of why we are in this position. A misogynist was elected President with the support of 53% of white women.

Who do you think he was going to appoint to the court? Alan Alda?

[Le Gaucher]

27. I disagree .. If Kav goes down -- they will be despirited

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

28. I don't think the conservative voters are "elastic" based on emotions.

I think their voting percentage is high and inelastic. They vote when they're happy, sad, angry, calm. They vote in the sun, the rain, the snow. They're conditioned to vote. Period.

I think it's the Democratic voters whose enthusiasm needs to be pumped to get the vote out.

Just a guess.

[louis c]

36. A Kavanaugh Confirmation Would Certainly Pump Up the Democratic Base

You make my point.

[EffieBlack]

46. So would a defeat

Let's try that.

[Funtatlaguy]

31. I agree....

Anger does motivate.
If Kav has to withdraw.....Dems will be blamed and that will drive up some of the more listless Repubs.
Our side is already motivated ....but losing on Kav might drive our GOTV effort even higher.

And, as far as voting on the Court, Kav replacement would vote the same way he would.

[Leith]

32. The Problem with This Debate Is

that we can NOT leave math, philosophy, and ethics out of the equation.

We live in a complex society. People's lives will be influenced on what goes on in the Supreme Court. That influence will go from hardly noticing and run through the shades into lives cut off too early.

This is not a battle that we can lose and still win in a couple years. The war is extended for at least another generation.

[louis c]

37. Kavanaugh's Replacement will not be a Liberal Justice

So we lost that battle in 2016.

[Alhena]

44. This makes sense IF we know that Heitkamp, Manchin et al will lose because of their "no" votes

Certainly, in that scenario, we'd still have a Republican Senate and moderates like Collins would face heavy pressure not to vote "no" again. We'd be much worse off than if Kav got confirmed but we took the Senate.

OTOH, there's no way to know that Heitkamp and Manchin WOULD lose if Kav goes down.

But I agree that there's political risk to defeating Kav- I've discussed Kav with enough conservative friends of mine to know there's some very sincere outrage on their part.

[EffieBlack]

45. That's easy to say from a position of privilege

Many people can't afford the luxury of waiting for a long-term political victory.

[louis c]

49. Actually, it's short term. 5 weeks from today

[EffieBlack]

54. You think that winning Congress in 2018 is worth letting Kavanaugh onto the Court for life?

No, thank you to that kind of short-sighted thinking. I want to take back Congress, but I'm also going to fight my ass off to keep that man off the bench. To me, it's not either/or since Kavanaugh on the bench can cancel out all manner of political victories.

[louis c]

58. We should fight as hard as we can to stop Kavanaugh...

...but if we lose, it is a bloody flag for the mid-terms.

and remember, me or you do not choose his replacement. It's still Donald Trump.

We may get a non-rapist white supremacist as the next appointment, but we ain't getting a justice who votes with us.

The Senate map is daunting and the only way to stop the next appointment is to hold the Senate and prevent a hearing until 2021. If I thought for a minute we could stop Kavanaugh and still win the Senate, I'd be all for it. But, I think, we need an added incentive and none for the other side for that to happen.

[inwiththenew]

50. I seem to recall people hoping Trump would win the R nomination because he would be easy to beat

How'd that turn out? Be careful what you wish for because it might not work out how you think it will. The safest thing to hope for is for him not to be confirmed.

[Initech]

51. The only reason they're pushing Kav is to say "fuck you" to democrats.

That's it. We must stop this middle finger at all costs!

[Blue_Tires]

52. Sorry, I'm tired of playing the

"Cede today to gain more tomorrow" -game because it never, ever, ever seems to really work out for Dems....

I'm also tired of playing the "Don't piss off the angry RW yokels" -game because believe me when I tell you that even if we cover ALL our bases, they WILL find SOMETHING to be angry about, even if they have to invent it

[louis c]

55. I would agree if we can prevent this seat from ever being filled until we have a Dem. Pres.

And I'm not saying surrender. I still want to fight as hard was we can to defeat Kavanaugh. What I'm saying, is that a loss could be an incentive to our base.

Certainly if we don't fight as hard as we can, our base would be pissed at us, but if we fight and lose, they will be pissed at the Republicans.

[GoCubsGo]

53. And, we all lose morally.

I don't give a shit about the politics. I don't want a goddamn lying, misogynist, racist, mean-drunk, political hack rapist on the US Supreme Court. Period.