Dead heat for Florida Gov according to Mason Dixon Poll

[Mojo2]

See link for poll, but here's what I don't get, how can this poll and the Quinnipac poll be so far off? I have no idea if Mason-Dixon is a reliable poll, but Tampa Times seems to support it. I live in Florida, I thought for sure that Gillum would do very well and Nelson would be able to get through on his coat tails. The amount of attack ads by the GOP towards both Gillum and Nelson is staggering, I cannot turn on my tv without being deluged with the attack ads, and even on the internet they are everywhere.


https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/02/poll-its-a-tied-race-for-florida-governor/

[brooklynite]

1. I've heard that the Kavanaugh hearing is riling up Trump base voters.

[Roland99]

5. Heard that on morning woe on msnbc. Not believing it

In the off chance it’s related, it won’t last

[helpisontheway]

2. I hope campaigning with Hillary is not gonna hurt him. I keep seeing people

on his Facebook posts complaining about him campaigning with a typical politician. They are saying that they thought he was different. SMH He was doing fine on his own. I don’t know why his campaign decided to tie him to someone that will not really help him in that state. Obama might be able to help a little because he won there two times. I’m not trying to put Hillary down. Just like I would not like Obama to go campaign for Beto in Texas. He probably would not help him gain more support. The most of the Dems are gonna be with him anyway.

[mcar]

7. "A typical politician?"

The first woman to get a major party nomination for president? Who won the popular vote by 3 million? The most qualified, experienced presidential candidate in a long time? The highly respected former senator and SOS?

Endorsed by Mayor Gillum? Typical politician?

[disillusioned73]

10. Agree..

some folks just can't handle that reality..

[leftynyc]

3. I haven't seen even one national ad

about the midterms. They should be all over the airwaves with kavanaugh being a sexual predator, with donnie being a degenerate and a liar with no oversight in congress. The Dems are sitting on a pile of money and doing nothing with it. It's like backing a boxer who refuses to fight.

[octoberlib]

4. According to 538 , Mason Dixon leans red, right up there with Zogby and Rasmussen.

Simple average error is 5.2.( Rasmussen is 5.3) They poll using cellphones and how many people answer their phones when they see an unfamiliar number? No young people that I know.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If a poll is too good or too bad to be true it is best to ignore it and focus on the average.

[Mojo2]

8. Follow Up

Still the lack of spending by the Dems in Florida is alarming to me. Rick Scott is on every tv channel and radio station in my area (West of Tampa), but I only see something from Nelson every once in awhile. The same goes to DeSantis, Im so sick of hearing the ad that Gillum is a Socialist and will drive businesses out of Florida, it plays all day, yet, I see very few Gillum ads, but he does have more than Nelson. Personally, this should be a no brainer, you have Red Tide Rick Scott, a guy that is a crook and will back Trump 100% of the time against Nelson, who is a man of integrity. In the GOV race, you have Gillum, who has alot of good progressive ideas, against DeSantis, and DeSantis refuses to even divulge what his platform would be if elected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. There was always going to be tightening in those races.

Keep your eye on the averages.

[peekaloo]

9. Leadership Florida was one of the poll's conductors.

Check the small print on those attack ads and I'd bet they show up somewhere.

[JCMach1]

12. Florida is 1-2% state normally

I would expect tightening. The win will be recorded on who can get out their base... advantage Gillum and Nelson on that count.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Yes...the large poll leads for Gillum make very little sense

Both the senate and governor races figure to be very tight. I would be surprised if either result is above 3% margin and I would expect both at 2% or less. I've mentioned that on Predictit several times in recent weeks.

I have been waiting for Mason-Dixon to weigh in on this race and others. As a political gambler, Mason-Dixon has been my most respected polling firm for more than 20 years. That was particularly true when I lived in Nevada. If Mason-Dixon showed up with a poll that deviated from other indications, invariably Mason-Dixon had picked up on something that others missed.

I see in an earlier comment here that Mason-Dixon tends to err right. That may be true recently. I have not charted. However, as always I believe in long term big picture realities and not short term.

IMO, it is very dangerous to dismiss Mason-Dixon as less than an outstanding polling firm. I look at them first in statewide polls, while other firms are superior in national polls.

[JCMach1]

14. It will take Obama '08 '12 level Turnout it's 1-2%

to win in FL. If you don't get that it's super close, or we lose the statewide races...

Florida is a Red and a Blue state gerrymandered to favor red.