A yes vote on cloture is NOT a yes vote on nomination, and things just got interesting

[scheming daemons]

Shouldn't have to be said, but many people need a civics lesson.

Yes on cloture simply means that debate is ending and it is time to go to floor vote.

Sen Collins was a YES on cloture for Betsy DeVos, but a NO on her final vote. And many senators in the past have voted YES on clotures but no on final votes.



Conversely, a NO on cloture almost always means a NO on the final vote. That means the GOP has no margin for error now. Joe Manchin will *NOT* put himself in a position to be the 50th vote tomorrow. That means *BOTH* Flake and Collins need to be a YES for Kavanaugh to be confirmed.


Predictions and Possibilities:

Murkowski will be a NO.

Flake/Collins both YES = Manchin YES (51-49) = 60% chance

One of Flake/Collins NO = Manchin NO (49-51) = 20% chance

Both of Flake/Collins NO = Manchin NO (48-52) = 20% chance



This thing will *NOT* end 50-50. Manchin will defer voting until all other 99 Senators have voted. He will then be the 51st to confirm, or the 51st/52nd to deny. There is no circumstance where the tally will be 49-50 and Manchin becomes the 50th YES.


Murkowski today, like Heitcamp yesterday, has now put Joe Manchin in a box. The only way he votes YES for the nomination is if BOTH Flake and Collins vote YES.

[samnsara]

1. every single YES vote nees to be primaried...

[SCantiGOP]

30. except that the 2018 primaries are over

[pnwmom]

33. That's the shortsighted idea that lost us control of the House and Senate.

If the R's have enough votes to win without him, then it makes ZERO difference how Manchin votes. If voting yes will help him get re-elected, fine.

[Codeine]

34. A lesson some here

are clearly never going to learn, no matter how many times it is explained.

[Fred Sanders]

41. Folks forget Manchin with a D in WV is a political miracle.

[HopeAgain]

43. Politics aside

If Manchin votes yes, he has no conscience. Makes him a bad man because he is putting his office over women's fundamental rights, among a lot of other things.

[pnwmom]

61. Putting politics aside in this case is ridiculous. If the Dems can stop K without Manchin,

then he is NOT a "bad man" because he votes in a way that will help his political future in a very red state.

[HopeAgain]

62. I disagree completely

There are some votes that are simply wrong. This is one of them. If someone voted in favor of the Nuremberg laws, they were a Nazi. If someone votes for this man, they are a Republican. This is true regardless what they do on other things.

[DownriverDem]

56. Folks don't know

how the political game is played. They also don't know WV. The repub senator from Montana won't be there tomorrow because his daughter is getting married. He told the repubs months ago about the wedding. What will that do to the numbers?

[njhoneybadger]

59. Half a loaf is better than none

[HopeAgain]

63. In a very unprincipled way...

[Hekate]

66. Tell that to a starving man

[hlthe2b]

2. Yes.. as much as CLOTURE has been explained here, it only underscores how few took civics classes

and how badly our educational system needs to go back to it!

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Anybody who watches CSPAN2 will eventually learn it

It's fascinating.

(yes I have been a CSPAN junky since I first got cable in 1989 )

[hlthe2b]

10. Yes... indeed.

[BigmanPigman]

13. I wrote to my state's dept of education many times

while I was a teacher and never even got a response. I could see it was necessary, even for my first graders. I had to "sneal teach" it like a million other subjects that are not in the state curriculum. My students voted like adults do all the time in my class and they loved it, it gave them a voice.

[violetpastille]

28. Each one: Teach one

Civics is not required in my state.

I like your grassroots, DIY solution. And your graciousness.

[Lucky Luciano]

36. With the hardcore partisanship, cloture has become nearly equivalent of late! nt

[hlthe2b]

39. Obviously not today... and nor should it ever be considered so.

[Lucky Luciano]

57. I would say so.

People always talk about needing 60 votes to get anything done and partisanship then blocks anything from happening since nobody can get 60 votes (hence those dickheads lowered it to 50 for Supreme Court appointees).

[underpants]

3. Even if Collins flips Pence will break the tie

Unless Flake and/or Manchin flip too

[bdamomma]

20. So how's it look

are they going to fuck the American people more? I would love to see Flake and Manchin flip.

[getagrip_already]

35. no, if murjkowski has voted no, collins would clinch it...

with both collins and murkowski, it would be 51-49 with no's taking the day.

[underpants]

42. No. If Collins flips that would be 50-50

Either Flake or Manchin would also have to flip to avoid a tie.

Flake has said he's voting Yes unless something big happens.

[getagrip_already]

44. uhmm, your math is quite wrng here

There are 51 republican senators. 51. Count em.

Murkowski has already said she will vote no. She got the get out of vote free card. So the vote (if all dems vote no) is 50-50 and pence makes it a win.

If collins also votes no, it becomes 51 no votes and only 49 yes, and the nomination fails. Pence doesn't get a vote except in the case of a tie.

But collins will vote yes. So it's at 50-50. Flake will not be the 51st no vote. Just ike manchin won't be the 50th yes vote.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Thank you.

This is just like during the year of the ACA formulation and all the bullshit about "the bill", which left out the fact that 5 or 6 committees from BOTH chambers of Congress were working on "bills", yet the media and many on DU assumed that whatever iteration was being discussed in the news was the FINAL version.

[rainy]

5. Debates will still happen on the floor!

[procon]

6. Well said, and yes, most adults really need a brush up course in USGOV-101.nt

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. Agree, Manchin is not the deciding vote. nt

[shraby]

8. What about Daines (R) who will be at his daughter's wedding?

[scheming daemons]

11. If McConnell thinks he can't get to 50 without Daines, the vote won't be held until Sunday.

[catbyte]

12. I heard that he rearranged his flights so he will be available to vote.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Unless they know for sure that Manchin will vote "yes"

along with Collins and Flake, then Daines can go off a cliff and they could still hold a vote and win. (51 - 48)

If Manchin becomes a "no", then it gets trickier.

[Grasswire2]

38. they are saying Daines will be back even if a Trump family plane gets him.

The Freepers think that Trump will send AF1 to take the whole wedding party to Mar a Lago after the vote. Haha.

[still_one]

15. Cloture or final vote, this is all contrieved Drama for the masses. They wouldn't hold the vote

tomorrow if they didn't know Kavanaugh would be confirmed, that is my take

This is all a façade of people covering each other's asses

From the pseudo FBI report, its restrictions, to the way it was distributed, this is all choreography for the masses, and I suspect when this is all done, and likely confirmed, they will pretend it was a horse race, when in reality it was over before it even begin

[scheming daemons]

16. They held the ACA vote without knowing that McCain would be a 2am thumbs down.

McConnell wants to hold the vote either way... so he can get confirmed, or they can quickly move on to the next nominee while they're still in power.

[still_one]

19. In my view this isn't comparable. This is about a lifetime appointment to further a political

agenda

While I believe McCain at times had more of a conscience than most republicans today in Congress, I am skeptical if he hadn't been going through the health issues of his own, the probability is that he would have adopted the party line

The fact that Flake himself said he would never have called for the FBI report if he was running for re-election speaks volumes

[scheming daemons]

21. My point is that McConnell wants to hold the vote regardless of if he wins or not

Because if he is going to lose the vote, McConnell wants to quickly move on to another nominee while the GOP still holds the Senate.

Regardless of whether McConnell gets a win or a loss, he wants it to be done with this weekend.

[still_one]

24. While I agree with your assessment IF they lost the vote they would want to move another nominee

ASAP, I am convinced that he knows he has the votes, especially the way both Grassley and him have been talking it up the last several days

We will know soon enough

[WillowTree]

17. Likewise, a no vote on cloture is not necessarily a no vote on the nomination.

It's most unlikely that that will happen, but as they say, it ain't over 'til it's over.

[scheming daemons]

18. No, but it usually is.

If you intend to vote YES on the nomination, you don't typically vote NO in order to keep the debate open. You want to get to the floor vote even more.

[Bayard]

22. I'm thinking Flake will vote No

Coons has been working on him all week, and he likes the positive attention he's been getting.

Collins will vote yes, and so will Daines, catching a redeye flight.

Even if Manchin mans up and votes like a Dem, there's still Pence.

[scheming daemons]

23. If Flake votes no... that means 50 NO votes. Without Manchin.

The only way Pence would be involved in that case is if Manchin votes YES.

[KatyBR]

25. Correct- Collins vote not an indication of her final vote

Lawmakers might vote differently on the climactic confirmation roll call, and Collins told reporters that she wouldn’t rule out doing so. That left unclear whether Friday’s tally signaled that the 53-year-old federal appellate judge was on his way to the nation’s highest court. Confirmation would be a crowning achievement for Trump, his conservative base and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

https://www.apnews.com/50c676ea67ba42949eb5612a536f548c/Supreme-Court-nominee-Kavanaugh-clears-crucial-Senate-hurdle

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

26. Thanks for this explanation. There's a lot of hair on fire

over a procedural vote that is not determinative. The good thing is that this is an excellent civics lesson, which is badly needed.

[RedSpartan]

27. I'm hearing from the hill

Collins and Flake are yes, so Schumer will release the democrats to vote as they need to, and Manchin will be yes.

[Grasswire2]

40. Why does the seat of one senator outweigh the future of the SCOTUS in the lives of Americans for..

...generations?

Why does the seat of one mostly rural state rule the laws of the land?

That's what this boils down to.

Joe Manchin's vote. Why is he not willing to sacrifice his seat to this cause? Is his salary and personal influence worth more than the decisions of the SCOTUS over our lives?

[Straw Man]

48. The "take one for the team" argument ...

... is easy to make if you're not the one taking the hit. What you're saying is that this one SCOTUS seat is worth more than anything Manchin will ever be able to accomplish in the Senate. It's hard to make that evaluation without a crystal ball.

[Grasswire2]

60. tell it to this and several more generations of women.

Say that.

American women's personal physical autonomy for several generations is worth less than anything else that potentially could come to the Senate.

Say it.

[Straw Man]

68. Would future generations of women be better served ...

... by ceding that seat to a Republican? Even when Manchin's vote was not the decisive one?

A "No" from Manchin would have brought Pence in to break the tie: Kavanaugh gets confirmed anyway and Manchin loses his seat to a Republican in the next election. Would that have been better?

[RedSpartan]

52. With Collins and Flake as yes

Manchin's vote is not relevant. So if it's better for him to keep his seat he votes yes, then he has Schumer's blessing to do so.

[zentrum]

29. Thnak you. I'm one of

...those who needed this civic lesson.

[snort]

31. Beyond this,

even if he is installed on the court, 4 other judges would have to go along with what I am guessing is or most basic fear: Dictators are groovy cool.

[recentevents]

32. Yes, thank you for the civics lesson

The chest crushing pain, sleepless nights, tears, anxiety and all of the last few weeks are all worth it, as long as we all get a much needed civics lesson. Thank you Senators for this teaching moment.

[Silver1]

37. As per CNN

Collins statement from this morning: ""I will be voting yes on proceeding to the final confirmation vote and I will announce my intentions on how to vote later today," she told reporters just now.

Note: We expected the earlier vote would be the key one to watch, as we assumed senators would be unlikely to vote one way today and then another way tomorrow. We'll have to wait for Collins' 3 p.m. announcement to find out if that's still true.

[LostinRed]

45. It's better if he's voted in

Better for the midterms and he can be impeached later. If he not confirmed, Republicans chances of having a surge in voters goes up. With him being confirmed it is better for Democratic voters turning up. He’s a conservative judge Trump will nominate someone just as bad.

[bucolic_frolic]

47. Unless rammed through in December or we don't take the Senate

Kavanaugh is an ideological partisan rift like this country has never seen. It will not be forgotten. Nor will Merrick Garland.

[The Mouth]

64. I think they see *ANYTHING* they do

as payback for Bork.

For stupid fuckers, they have a long memory.

[scheming daemons]

51. You need 67 senators to remove a judge after being impeached.

Won't ever happen.

[area51]

54. Do you really think he can be impeached?

Clarence Thomas is still there.

[bucolic_frolic]

46. If it only gets us to 50, Manchin will vote yes

If he gets us to 51, Manchin will vote no

That's how i see the calculations.

No sense in taking election risk if it means nothing for the party

[Baclava]

49. I bet it's a 50-50 tie in the final and Pence will ride in on a white horse to cast the tie breaker

It's in the script

[George II]

50. You're 100% correct - this happens every time. All that vote does is address the inevitable....

....that there will be a floor vote on the actual nomination itself.

Over the years there have been much more overwhelming votes for cloture and the issue in question, be it a bill or a nomination, failed.

I'm not concerned about it, in fact I wish more Democrats would have voted "yes" to keep the republicans on their toes, thinking the nomination was in the bag.

[emulatorloo]

53. Thank you. I wish more DU'ers had taken civics classes or read a book about how Congress works

My sense at this point is that some making the procedural vote for cloture will vote no on confirmation.

[Sqee]

55. Pence does NOT enter into the equation with 99 Senators.

Daines will be out tomorrow.

That means they still need 50 but there cannot be a tie vote. If 50 Senators vote no, it's over.

[Baclava]

58. Daines will be back to vote, they can hold the vote open for him to return

Daines said GOP leaders may hold open the confirmation vote overnight to allow him to return from Montana to Washington to vote.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/10/05/kavanaugh-vote-steve-daines-daughters-wedding/1532320002/

---------------------------

"We spoke last night, and I assured him, I will be back to vote YES this weekend if needed"

https://twitter.com/SteveDaines?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Honeycombe8]

65. They told us. All of those except Murkowski have pledged to vote yes. nt

[polmaven]

67. She has said, as of 3:00 pm on Friday,

that she will be voting to confirm KaviNAW to the Supreme Court.