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[underthematrix]

1. I believe Jacky Rosen will win the seat.

[manor321]

2. Yep

A number of Senate races have been slipping away. See fivethirtyeight.

But the vast majority of posts here describe November as if it will solve all problems.

[dem4decades]

4. Beating Heller would help.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. The Senate was always a long shot.

The blue wave pertains mainly to the House.

[obamanut2012]

5. doom and gloom

*yawn*

[bearsfootball516]

6. The Senate has ALWAYS been a longshot.

Republicans have been a heavy favorite all year. Too many vulnerable seats and too few vulnerable Republicans this cycle.

On the plus side, 2020 is tremendously better for Democrats. There are basically no vulnerable Democrats up and 4-5 extremely vulnerable Republicans, including Collins.

Democrats take back the house in four weeks, then run a strong candidate in 2020, take back the presidency and Senate and control all three branches.

[Iliyah]

7. Tied . . .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Dem pickups-AZ and NV. Dem losses- ND and MO ?

The House is where the action is.

[irresistable]

9. Incumbents polling below 50% usually lose. Undecideds break toward the challenger

One more thing, polls almost never detect a wave.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. NV is hard to poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

[irresistable]

16. even harder to detect a wave

[irresistable]

14. but the wave exists..any 2018 election model was based on voter turnout in 2014 will miss the wave

[RandySF]

12. Possible outlier?

Let’s see how in a couple of weeks.

[mcar]

13. The Senate was always the longest of shots

Remember way back when (like a year ago), when the idea of Dems taking back the Senate was laughable?

The fact that it's even under consideration is a huge win for Democrats. Of course, the media won't portray it that way. But it is.

We have a far better chance in 2020.

[Wellstone ruled]

15. The new voter registration numbers

turn this poll on it's head.

What the team I work with is finding 6 new Dems to 2*+ Rethug sign ups. And now we go to get out the vote mode as of today with early voting starting on the 20th.

BTW,Nevada Voters Guide just hit the Mail Boxes today.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Extremely difficult senate realities this year

We would win an open race in Nevada. But it is not an open race. We are trying to oust an incumbent, which is always more difficult than conventional wisdom allows.

I lived in Nevada when Dean Heller was first elected. He looked just like the type of Republican who would be impossible to remove.

It would be awesome to get rid of him. The lead in the governors race should help. But more than anything we need independents to shift in our direction over the final weeks. That variable is going to decide one race after another nationally.

[DeminPennswoods]

19. John Ralston was on MSNBC yesterday

talking about this race. He said usually Nevadans don't show up in the mid-terms which would favor Heller. But if they do show up as in presidential election years, Heller is vulnerable.